Diminishing user activity and stiff overhead resistance are driving Cardano’s prices lower today with bears focused on pulling ADA price back to $0.50.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has predicted significant turbulence in cryptocurrency markets around the scheduled presidential inauguration date of Donald Trump on January 20, 2025. Arthur Hayes Predicts Crypto Market Volatility During Trump's 2025 Inauguration Hayes expressed his concerns in a social media post, suggesting that this incident could trigger a “regrettable dump” in crypto markets. Hayes said he plans to adjust his investment strategy to mitigate potential losses, including reducing certain positions ahead of the expected volatility. It also stated its intention to repurchase underlying positions at lower prices in the first half of 2025. Despite speculation about a possible US national Bitcoin reserve under Trump’s administration, Hayes downplayed the possibility of such a development, saying, “I don’t think national Bitcoin reserves are going to happen.” Hayes’ prediction comes at a time when crypto markets continue to respond to macroeconomic events, regulatory developments, and political shifts, underscoring the impact of global events on digital assets. Hayes' comments have raised a number of concerns and curiosity among market participants regarding potential price movements in the coming months. *This is not investment advice. Continue Reading: BitMEX Founder Arthur Hayes Draws Attention to Donald Trump's Presidency Date: 'Turbulence Possible!'
XRP could be losing some steam, but it could be positive
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Bitcoin's spot market demand has increased over the past month, driving BTC's prices up.
Crypto analyst Charting Guy has provided a major update on the Bitcoin price action as BTC hit a new all-time high (ATH) at $108,000. The analyst drew similarities between the current price and that of 2023 while revealing what could happen next for the flagship crypto. What Next As Bitcoin Price Mirrors 2023 Move In an X post, Charting Guy revealed that the Bitcoin price is still following 2023. The analyst predicted that the flagship crypto could hit the $110,000 to $120,000 area on this leg up, with this surge expected to happen later this week or early next week. Bitcoin looks to already be on its way to this price target, having recently hit a new ATH at $108,000. Related Reading: Analyst Who Correctly Predicted The Fantom Breakout Above $1 Reveals What’s Next In The Parabolic Trend Charting Guy also predicted that the Bitcoin price would tap the resistance on the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI), forming a triple bearish divergence, marking a slight local top for the flagship crypto. Once that happens, the analyst believes that Bitcoin will consolidate between $105 and $115,000 for a few weeks. The Bitcoin price could then record a fakeout move up to the $125,000 to $130,000 range into Donald Trump’s inauguration with a quick dump afterwards. Charting Guy predicts that this dump could maybe lead to a final retest of the $100,000 psychological level. Once that is done, Bitcoin could then begin the final leg up, starting from mid-February to the 1.618 Fibonacci level at around $170,000. The analyst opined that this could mark the final cycle top. What Happens As BTC Consolidates As the Bitcoin price consolidates from around Christmas to Donald Trump’s inauguration, Charting Guy believes that altcoins will go “absolutely insane.” The analyst also predicts that these altcoins will witness another parabolic rally roughly one month after Bitcoin tops in late March. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Crash Incoming? Tron’s Justin Sun Unstakes $209 Million ETH From Lido Finance These altcoins are expected to rally higher while the Bitcoin price makes lower highs. Charting Guy noted that different altcoins could top at different times. Some could happen at the start of next year, some during the Inauguration, and others when BTC tops in March or possibly extend to April. The analyst is confident that all these altcoins will get a major top in the first quarter of next year, with an extension to April possible for some coins. Charting Guy stated that the exact top for these altcoins will depend on each altcoin and its chart structure, wave count, Fibonacci levels, and other technical indicators. Specifically, the analyst highlighted LINK and XRP, stating that both coins could have their wave 3 topping in early Q1, with a wave 4 correction into the summer and a fifth wave higher high into August and September. The analyst added that the fifth wave isn’t really guaranteed and is speculative. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
The post Is MicroStrategy’s Premium Pricing Hurting Bitcoin Investors? appeared first on Coinpedia Fintech News MicroStrategy is generally regarded as a leveraged Bitcoin play or a synthetic call option. However, crypto expert Alex Kolicich reveals why MSTR may not be the best way to gain Bitcoin exposure. Let’s understand his insights! Prime Misconception About MSTR The price of MSTR remains at $386.42. In the last 30 days, the market has experienced a surge of over 10.96%. Portraying MicroStrategy as an overpriced entry point into Bitcoin, Alex argues that it trades at a 140% premium to its NAV. There is so much misinformation out there about $MSTR It isn’t a “synthetic call” on bitcoin, nor is it even a leveraged way of buying Bitcoin. It’s a poorly structured, tax-inefficient fund that trades at a 140% premium to NAV A thread: — Alex Kolicich (@AlexKolicich) December 16, 2024 Bitcoin Exposure and Pricing Issues MicroStrategy holds at least 439,002 BTC, worth at least $45,782,223,524, which is around 2.09% of the total supply of Bitcoin. This translates to around $177.60 in NAV per share of Bitcoin. The crypto expert notes that the MicoStrategy market provides less than $0.45 in Bitcoin exposure for every $1 spent on it. He criticises that instead of offering more exposure, MicroStrategy offers less Bitcoin exposure than buying BTC directly. MicroStrategy Is Not Leveraged or Long Volatility The expert points out that when MSTR issues convertible debt, it effectively shorts volatility by selling a bond and a call option. He adds that unlike call options, MicroStrategy does not provide leverage on invested dollars. Shareholder Dilution Alex emphasises that rising BTC prices trigger convertible debt, resulting in dilution of the Bitcoin exposure of the shareholders of MicroStrategy. Structural Issues with MicroStrategy Emphasising the fact that MicroStrategy is a C-Corp, and explaining how the structure of MSTR is different from ETFs, the crypto expert points out that the gains of a C-Corp are generally subject to double taxation (corporate and personal taxes). Better Alternatives for Bitcoin Exposure Projecting BITX as a more efficient and cost-effective alternative to MSTR, the expert claims that products like BITX offer 2x leveraged Bitcoin exposure without trading at a premium to NAV. In conclusion, investors should critically evaluate MSTR before jumping in. With its tax inefficiency, premium pricing, and limited Bitcoin exposure, better alternatives like BITX might offer smarter and more profitable ways to invest in BTC.
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise) The crypto market is derisking ahead of today's Fed rate decision. Everyone's buzzing about the likelihood of another rate cut that will supposedly galvanize risk-taking in the economy and financial markets. Here's the twist: The central bank is expected to signal three rate cuts for 2025, not the four it projected in September, as well as revise growth and inflation forecasts higher. No surprise, then, that bitcoin and ether are trading nearly 2% lower, driving bigger losses in small-cap tokens. Among them, Pudgy Penguins' PENGU token , which has slumped over 50% since Tuesday's airdrop. The front-end call premiums in both BTC and ETH have already taken a hit , signalling a more cautious vibe in the market. Traditional markets are also factoring in a hawkish cut. Now, seasoned traders will tell you that when expectations lean too heavily one way, there's always room for disappointment. Put more simply, if interest rate projections stay the same or Fed Chairman Jerome Powell eases concerns about sticky inflation during his press conference while maintaining a data-dependent approach, we could see a nice bump in risk assets — cryptos included. VIRTUAL, the native coin of AI and tokenization platform Virtuals Protocol, might shine in that case, having risen 11% in Asian hours. "AI within crypto is shaping up to be a fascinating trend, especially in social trading, where data-driven insights and automation can empower traders," said Neal Wen, head of global business development at Kronos Research. Leading on-chain perpetuals platform HyperLiquid's HYPE token is another candidate, trading 4% higher at press time. Social media chatter points to limited exchange availability and token retention as a catalyst for the rally. That said, don't let your guard down. Some observers say the pace of future rate cuts really hinges on Friday's core PCE data, the Fed's preferred inflation measure. As Valentin Fournier, an analyst at BRN, put it: "The Federal Reserve is set to announce a 25 basis-point interest-rate cut today — it's last for the year. Future cuts may rely heavily on Friday's Core PCE report, which is expected to hold steady at 3.3% year over year. Any surprises with rising inflation could rattle the markets, especially since bitcoin is already feeling some bearish pressure and is lacking the upward momentum." Additionally, the decline in Chinese government bond yields has folks over at the Wall Street Journal raising red flags about the world's second-largest economy facing a depression, a prolonged period marked by a sharp drop in economic growth and rising unemployment. These concerns could easily destabilize global markets, so it's definitely a good time to stay alert. What to Watch Crypto: Dec. 18, 9:30 a.m.: Software cryptocurrency wallet maker Exodus Movement (EXOD) starts trading on NYSE American, a sibling of NYSE. Dec. 30: The European Union's Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) Regulation becomes fully effective . The stablecoin provisions came into effect on June 30. Macro Dec. 18, 2:00 p.m.: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases its target range for the federal funds rate, currently 4.50%-4.75%. The CME's FedWatch tool indicates that interest-rate traders assign a 95.4% probability of a 25 basis-point cut. Press conference starts at 2:30 p.m. Livestream link . Dec. 18, 10:00 p.m.: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announces its interest rate decision . Short-term interest rate Est. 0.25% vs. Prev. 0.25%. Dec. 19, 7:00 a.m.: The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England (BoE) announces its interest-rate decision . Bank Rate Est. 4.75% vs Prev. 4.75%. Dec. 19, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases third-quarter GDP (final) . GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Est. 2.8% vs Prev. 3.0%. GDP Price Index QoQ Final Est. 1.9% vs Prev. 2.5%. Dec. 20, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases November's Personal Income and Outlays report . PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.5% vs Prev. 2.3%. Core PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.9% vs Prev. 2.8%. Dec. 24, 1:00 p.m. The Fed releases November’s H.6 (Money Stock Measures) report . Money Supply M2 Prev. $23.31T. Token Events Governance votes & calls Venus Protocol is officially expanding to Base. VIP-408 passed the governance vote and users can access Venus on Base on Dec. 19. Unlocks Metars Genesis to unlock 11.87% of MRS circulating supply, worth $11 million at current prices. Conferences: Jan. 13-24: Swiss WEB3FEST Winter Edition 2025 (Zug, Zurich, St. Moritz, Davos) Jan. 17: Unchained: Blockchain Business Forum 2025 (Los Angeles) Jan. 18: BitcoinDay (Naples, Florida) Jan. 20-24: World Economic Forum Annual Meeting (Davos-Klosters, Switzerland) Jan. 21: Frankfurt Tokenization Conference 2025 Jan 30-31: Plan B Forum (San Salvador, El Salvador) Token Talk By Shaurya MalwaEarly PENGU buyers are learning the perils of low liquidity the hard way. The token of the Pudgy Penguins ecosystem token debuted amid massive hype on Tuesday. Its charm was its association with an already popular NFT collection, leading to a frenzy of buying with hopes of quick gains. But the token had garnered the necessary liquidity at launch, meaning early, enthusiastic buyers bought the token at a $5 trillion market capitalization. Liquidity is the ability to buy or sell an asset without causing a significant price change. For PENGU, the initial liquidity pools were shallow, meaning there weren't enough buyers and sellers to keep the price stable. One unlucky trader lost big on the airdrop, turning $10,000 into less than $5 in seconds. Just before the official airdrop, they had swapped 45 wrapped Solana for PENGU but got only 78 tokens due to a glitch in Jupiter's decentralized exchange. The trade was sent to a low-liquidity pool on Raydium, inflating the token's price to an unrealistic $14 trillion market cap. This mishap was due to low liquidity, where even small trades can cause huge price swings. The PENGU token was created weeks before its launch, leading to premature trading and significant losses for those who jumped in too early without checking the market cap. Derivatives Positioning Positioning in BTC futures is heating up, with open interest approaching the November high of 663.71K BTC. Meanwhile, ETH open interest has hit a record of over 339K ETH. Funding rates in perpetuals tied to major coins are holding steady at around an annualized 10%, bang in the middle of the -200% to 200% range, which marks the extremes for bearish and bullish sentiment. Front-end BTC and ETH puts are trading at a premium to calls, highlighting demand for downside protection ahead of the Fed's interest-rate decision. Top BTC block trades include a bear call spread involving calls at strikes $104,000 and $105,000 and a standalone long position in the $95,000 put expiring on Jan. 3. Market Movements: BTC is down 1.72% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday to $104,593.98 (24hrs: -1.96%) ETH is down 1.44% at $3,876.29 (24hrs: -2.89%) CoinDesk 20 is down 3.03% to 3,830.21 (24hrs: +3.4%) Ether staking yield is up 2 bps to 3.18% BTC funding rate is at 0.01% (10.95% annualized) on Binance DXY is unchanged at 106.90 Gold is up 0.76% at $2,664.40/oz Silver is up 1.08% to $30.90/oz Nikkei 225 closed -0.72% at 39,081.71 Hang Seng closed +0.83% at 19,864.55 FTSE is up 0.23% at 8,214.42 Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.32% at 4,958.35 DJIA closed on Tuesday -0.61% to 43,449.9 S&P 500 closed -0.39% at 6,050.61 Nasdaq closed -0.32% at 20,109.06 S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -0.11% at 25,119.7 S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.16% at 2,280.58 U.S. 10-year Treasury was unchanged at 4.4% E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.25% to 6,069.00 E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 1.58% to 22,363.25 E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.2% at 43,563.00 Bitcoin Stats: BTC Dominance: 57.78% (24hrs: -0.33%) Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.037 (24hrs: +1.04%) Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 776 EH/s Hashprice (spot): $63.4 Total Fees: $1.4M/ 12.7 BTC CME Futures Open Interest: 212,635 BTC BTC priced in gold: 39.4oz BTC vs gold market cap: 11.22% Bitcoin sitting in over-the-counter desk balances: 406,700 BTC Basket Performance Technical Analysis BTC's dominance rate has bounced from 55% to nearly 58% in two weeks, retaking the year-to-date bullish trendline. It's a sign of renewed investor preference for bitcoin over altcoins. Crypto Equities MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $386.42 (-5.41%), up 0.45% at $388.15 in pre-market. Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $311.64 (-1.16%), down 0.98% at $308.60 in pre-market. Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$28.67 (-3.01%). MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $24.60 (+0.16%), down 1.5% at $24.23 in pre-market. Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.97 (-0.43%), down 1.36% at $13.78 in pre-market. Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.03 (-3.2%), down 1.19% at $15.84 in pre-market. CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $12.36 (-0.96%), down 0.49% at $12.30 in pre-market. CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $29.04 (-1.89%), down 0.48% at $28.90 in pre-market. Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $74.73 (+0.31%), up 2.97% at $76.93 in pre-market. ETF Flows Spot BTC ETFs: Daily net inflow: $493.9 million Cumulative net inflows: $36.70 billion Total BTC holdings ~ 1.136 million. Spot ETH ETFs Daily net inflow: $144.7 million Cumulative net inflows: $2.46 billion Total ETH holdings ~ 3.530 million. Source: Farside Investors Overnight Flows Chart of the Day The chart shows the explosive growth of the memecoin subsector, which has now surpassed $100 billion in market value. It's evidence of how speculative allure and a successful social-media strategy can drive investors to take risk. While You Were Sleeping Bitcoin Takes a Breather After Doji Candle in a Cautious Pre-Fed De-Risking (CoinDesk): After bitcoin set a record high above $108,000 on Tuesday morning (ET), the crypto market shifted to a more risk-off mood ahead of the Fed’s expected 25 basis-point interest-rate cut later today. Dollar Steady Against Peers as Fed Rate Cut Looms (Reuters): The U.S. dollar held steady Wednesday, with the DXY index easing to 106.89 from recent highs, while markets awaited the Fed's interest-rate decision and 2025 projections. Next U.S. Senate Banking Chair Calls Crypto 'Next Wonder' of World (CoinDesk): Incoming Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott praised crypto innovations Tuesday and called for swift legislation, while the next House Financial Services Chair French Hill predicted bipartisan crypto laws could pass in 2025 with Senate support. South Korea’s Yoon Skips Questioning, Adding to Risk of Arrest (Bloomberg): South Korea’s president, Yoon Suk Yeol, who was impeached Saturday, skipped a scheduled Wednesday morning interrogation session by a joint investigative team, increasing the risk of his arrest. Brazil Currency Rout Risks Worsening Unless Lula Delivers Fiscal Reforms (Financial Times): Brazil’s real hit a record low of 6.21 to the dollar on Tuesday as rising debt and fiscal concerns under President Lula’s government prompt calls for rate increases and credible reforms to stabilize the currency. Coinbase Says It Nixed wBTC Because Justin Sun Posed 'Unacceptable Risk' (CoinDesk): On Tuesday, Coinbase defended its decision to delist wBTC on Dec. 19, citing risks tied to Justin Sun's alleged involvement and rejecting BiT Global's lawsuit claims of favoritism toward its own, competing asset. In the Ether
The memecoins have been quiet of late, as all eyes have been on Bitcoin ($BTC). Is it now time for the memes to bounce? What are the best price levels to pick up $DOGE, $PEPE, and $WIF? Time to take a position in $DOGE? Source: TradingView The $DOGE price is in an ascending channel on the daily time frame. Having just touched the bottom of the channel, and currently sitting on some good horizontal support, this could be the time to take a position. If the price does bounce from here, the top of the channel is at around $0.50. A breakout of the top of the channel, with confirmation above, could lead to a measured move of at least $0.60, depending on where the breakout occurs. If, on the other hand, the price falls through the bottom of the channel, and makes a lower low, the uptrend would be negated and it would be back to the drawing board once again. That said, a continuation of the trend seems more likely. $PEPE retests - now the bounce? Source: TradingView $PEPE has been in a local downtrend for the past nine days now, and the price has almost come down to retest the top of the bull flag. The price has retested the 0.618 Fibonacci, and there is the potential for a wick to come down and retest the bull flag trendline, and also the 0.786 Fibonacci. Source: TradingView With the main trend still very much to the upside, it would not be expected that the price breaks back inside of the bull flag, although if it did, a price below $0.00001730 would make a lower low. That said, this level is very good support, as can be seen in the chart above. $WIF at very strong support Source: TradingView $WIF does look primed for a bounce here. The price has come all the way down to the deepest Fibonacci level for this move at the 0.786, which also happens to be a very strong horizontal support level. If the price did wick through, the ascending trendline, as well as the descending trendline from the all-time high, would act as good support. In conclusion, all three of the above memecoins look as though they are ready for a bounce. As usual, much will depend on Bitcoin. The $BTC price will either have to go up, or remain relatively stable for a while. Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.