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Summary COIN's Q2 2025 earnings likely benefited from crypto price volatility and expanding derivatives operations. Looking ahead, I believe the bulls overstated the benefits from recent policy shifts, including a US Bitcoin reserve and 401(k) crypto access. These developments offer both significant opportunities and also potential headwinds for Coinbase. While these policies could boost institutional legitimacy and customer base, they may also reduce volatility, dampen trading activity, and increase competition. COIN Stock: Q2 2025 earnings report Coinbase Global, Inc.'s ( COIN ) recently released its Q2 2025 earnings report [ER]. As a popular crypto stock on the Seeking Alpha platform, the ER has been reviewed by several other authors shortly. As such, in this article, I will focus only on one aspect that is less often mentioned. I will comment on the impact of the recent policy shifts, with the most notable ones being the potential for the establishment of a US cryptocurrency reserve and also President Donald Trump's recent executive order regarding 401(k) funds. These developments are interpreted as a net positive for the stock judging by the lasting rating on the stock (see the chart below). This article will explain why the impacts are unlikely to be all positive and can present both opportunities and challenges for COIN going forward. These considerations create large EPS uncertainties. Together with some valuation risks, I see no obvious bias in its risk/reward ratio and rate the stock as a hold. Seeking Alpha Let me start with a quick recap for its Q2 ER in case there are readers unfamiliar with the numbers yet. Coinbase recorded strong second-quarter results, as you can see from the sales metrics below. Total revenues came in at $1.42 billion (a 2.9% increase YOY), and subscription and service revenues reached $656 million, towards the higher end of the guidance range. I believe the main drivers in the past quarters have elevated cryptocurrency trading volumes amid crypto price volatility. The business also begins to reap the rewards from its growing derivatives operations, in my assessment. Against this backdrop, next I will detail my thoughts on the potential impact of the recent policy shifts. COIN Q2 ER COIN Stock: a closer look at its business Looking further into the financials, Consumer Trading keeps generating the bulk of its revenues. As you can see from the following sales breakdown, net Consumer Trading Revenues came in at almost $650 million for the quarter, dwarfing net institutional trading revenues of $60.8 million by more than 10 folds. In terms of specific trading volumes, bitcoin trading volume keeps playing a dominating role, as you can see from the statistic provided in the second chart below. In Q2 2025, bitcoin trading volume represents 30% of the total trading volume, about double the second place (Ethereum at 15%). With this understanding of its revenue mix and trading activities, next I will explain the potential challenges and opportunities I see from the recent policy shifts in its operations. COIN Q2 ER COIN Q2 ER COIN Stock: potential policy shifts Judging by recent developments, the cryptocurrency market continues to mature. Two notable examples are the potential for the establishment of a US cryptocurrency reserve and also President Trump's recent executive order regarding 401(k) funds. On the first catalyst, an executive order issued in March 2025 stated the creation of a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve with “bitcoins forfeited from criminal or civil asset forfeitures.” These assessments were held by the Department of Treasury, and its Secretary Scott Bessent recently announced the potential of his department to add to this reserve (see his post below). Scott Bessent The second catalyst could have an even larger and more profound impact for the long term. President Trump recently (in early August) also signed an executive order to “democratizes access to alternative assets for 401(k) investors.” Bitcoins—and various funds and derivatives based on them - could be included in these alternative assets. This could open a vast consumer and institutional base for these assets. For example, recent statistics show that more than 70 million Americans participate in 401(k) saving plans or other similar plans, with a total balance of ~$9 trillion currently sitting in these plans. The establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve and the 401(k) access could lead to progress of legislation in Congress. This potential of policy shifts certainly can have positive impacts on COIN’s operation. For example, I expect these shifts to grant cryptocurrency institutional legitimacy and thus help COIN grow its institutional customer base. I also expect these shifts to help bolster Coinbase’s crypto derivatives platform. The company is in the process of acquiring Deribit, a global leader in crypto options. The acquisition is expected to close by the end of 2025 and should expand COIN’s derivatives product suite and global footprint substantially (see the chart below). COIN Q2 ER Other risks and final thoughts However, I do not believe the impacts to be all positive. I see plenty of headwinds from these potential policy shifts as well for COIN’s operation. To start, with the regulation clarity and entry of institutional participants, I foresee muted price volatility going forward both for bitcoins and other crypto currencies. In my experience, trading activities (especially those from retail investors) tend to correlate with price volatility. When/if price volatility decreases, I thus expect to see reducing trading activities, which could counterbalance the expanded customer base and bring about the same regulatory clarity. Regulatory clarity also tends to invite more competition and could pressure the transaction fees that COIN can charge. If history is of guidance, when I shopped for a stock trading platform for my first investment account (about 20 years ago), they all charged hefty trading fees. Today, all the platforms I use charge no fee at all. Another risk worth noting is cost, which has been increasing due to its expansion efforts. In the meantime, as seen in the table below, transaction expenses have been increasing as well. In Q2, transaction expenses represented 17% of the net revenue, compared to 15% a quarter ago and 14% a year ago. COIN Q2 ER These secular and operation uncertainties can eventually lead to large EPS uncertainties. As a reflection, there is a large variance in its EPS estimates among the consensus ahead, despite the upbeat guidance just mentioned. To quote a few numbers, for full year 2025, COIN’s EPS is projected to be $7.88 at the midpoint estimate, implying a quite pricy P/E of 38x. Also note that the large variance is away from the midpoint estimate, with a low of $6.36 to a high of $8.99, a variance of more than 40%. The variance becomes even more dramatic (more than 4-fold) for the next year of 2026. To recap, this article mainly focused on the business update of COIN as provided in its Q2 ER and the potential impacts from recent policy shifts. The most notable shifts in my view are a potential US cryptocurrency reserve and the changes to retirement funds. I believe the bulls are underestimating the headwinds these developments can cause, and I see both opportunities and challenges. Together with my consideration of the valuation risks, I do not see a skewed risk/reward ratio for the stock under current conditions. Source: Seeking Alpha data
The crypto market is at a turning point in 2025 as Bitcoin shows renewed strength after entering the $112,000 fear zone. The increase in the crypto market again boosted the confidence of investors in both old and new altcoins. One of the most popular projects is MAGACOIN FINANCE, which has crossed $12.8 million in its presale, with analysts expecting considerable upside. Bitcoin Regains Investor Confidence Bitcoin recently declined close to 9% from its mid-August all-time high of $124,474, as it tested support at roughly $112,000 in what analysts called a healthy post-halving pullback. Rebound towards 115,000 led traders to believe the long uptrend and short-covering, with RSI levels having undershot. Despite near-term corrections, analysts note that institutional inflows remain in place. Furthermore, they forecast a return to the $130,000 mark in a couple of months if liquidity strengthens. Market sentiment has gone from a rather cautious outlook to a more positive one. Many are seeing the dip as an opportunity to accumulate. As Bitcoin looks to re-establish support, investors are also shifting capital into promising altcoins that may outperform in the next breakout phase. Ethereum Consolidates Before Next Move Ethereum is following Bitcoin’s correction as price tumbles below $4200 after failing to break $4800 earlier this month. Presently trading close to $4,155, ETH is propped up by record ETF inflows recently exceeding $1 billion and network adoption in DeFi and NFTs. Key support lies between $4,100 to $3,900 while resistance at $4,450 and $4,700. Many analysts expect ETH to retest $5,000 before the year-end and have a bullish view on a medium-term basis. Investors who plan for the future like to hold Eth because it remains the most powerful smart contract network. MAGACOIN FINANCE Surges Past $12.8 Million Bitcoin’s recovery from the $112K fear zone has reignited market confidence, but analysts say the bigger momentum shift is with MAGACOIN FINANCE, which has already surged past $12.8 million raised. Backed by whale inflows and strong fundamentals, it’s being forecast for 65x upside , making it one of the best cryptos to buy in 2025 before the next breakout. The project has distinguished itself from other presales with transparent audits, capped supply, and a community-driven model that has accelerated adoption. Investor enthusiasm has been fueled by the combination of whale-backed participation and growing traction across retail segments. With early buyers getting an extra presale bonus, demand is intensifying, and allocations are disappearing faster than anticipated. Analysts suggest MAGACOIN FINANCE could replicate the kind of explosive growth seen in previous cycles when community-led tokens surged from niche plays to mainstream attention. Altcoin Rotation Continues As investment capital rotates away from Bitcoin and Ethereum, it is being diverted into other strong performers, including Solana, Avalanche, and XRP. Solana continues to be stable around $180 amid record network throughput and ecosystem upgrades. Similarly, Avalanche is gaining enterprise traction (VISA, FIFA) because of partnerships. XRP’s price continues to hover around $3.00 due to its payment specialist asset amidst ETF delays and strong institutional demand. Conclusion As Bitcoin rallies from the $112k fear zone and Ethereum consolidates for its next move, investors are searching for the best cryptos to position for 2025. While the major assets maintain strength, MAGACOIN FINANCE is among the standout opportunities emerging, having already breached $12.8 million raised with whale-backed demand. With predictions of up to 65x, investors have labelled the presale to be among the most strategic buys of the moment, with allocations rapidly running out. To learn more about MAGACOIN FINANCE, visit: Website: https://magacoinfinance.com Access: https://magacoinfinance.com/access Twitter/X: https://x.com/magacoinfinance Telegram: https://t.me/magacoinfinance Continue Reading: Best Crypto to Buy Now 2025: Bitcoin Recovers From $112K Fear Zone as MAGACOIN FINANCE Surges Past $12.8M
Databricks is buying Tecton, a machine learning startup backed by Sequoia Capital and Kleiner Perkins, as part of its plan to build out full-scale AI tools for large companies. The deal was confirmed Friday by Databricks CEO Ali Ghodsi, who spoke with Reuters . No price was shared, but the deal is being done using Databricks’ private shares. Tecton was last valued at $900 million back in 2022 and has around 90 employees today. This is just the latest in a growing list of deals. Databricks is using its massive private valuation to snatch up companies that plug right into its broader AI strategy. This specific acquisition is focused on real-time machine learning infrastructure. Tecton sells tools that allow companies to deploy and serve AI models at scale, with low latency, something Databricks wants to bake directly into its own platform. Databricks targets real-time AI agents with Tecton deal Tecton wasn’t just some outside partner. It already had ties with Databricks. In 2022, Tecton announced official partnerships with both Databricks and rival Snowflake, and since then, both of those companies have invested in Tecton. Many of Tecton’s users, including Coinbase , already use Databricks services in their AI stack. Now Databricks wants to tighten that loop. Ghodsi said Tecton’s software and team will help scale up Agent Bricks, which is the company’s product for building and automating workflows with AI agents. Speed is the goal. “It’s really the real-time building block to feed real-time information into the agents,” he said. He explained that things like voice-based AI systems require instant feedback. “Many of the use cases are directly user-facing and human-facing, and humans hate to wait.” Tecton was founded in 2020 by engineers who used to work at Uber. These engineers helped build Michelangelo, the internal AI system Uber uses to run features like real-time pricing. That experience turned into a commercial product focused on helping other companies serve AI systems that need fast, live data. Since launching, Tecton raised $160 million from backers like Andreessen Horowitz and Bain Capital Ventures. But it didn’t go public or get acquired, until now. The company stayed private while building out a solid user base, with enterprise customers already putting its tools into real-world AI systems . The new deal doesn’t say what happens to Tecton’s product line, but the clear signal is that its technology and engineers are now going to be absorbed into Databricks’ AI platform. Databricks is making these acquisitions on the back of a growing valuation. Just this week, the company said it signed a term sheet for a fresh funding round at over $100 billion, a jump of more than 60% from eight months ago. That gives Databricks the ability to issue more private shares and keep buying startups that strengthen its AI muscle. This year alone, they’ve bought Neon, a serverless database startup, for $1 billion, and Tabular, which brings in the creators of the Apache Iceberg data format. Last year, they paid $1.3 billion for MosaicML, a generative AI platform. The smartest crypto minds already read our newsletter. Want in? Join them .
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