Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan says the long-observed four-year crypto cycle may no longer apply to the current market. In a recent discussion with Bitcoin advocate Kyle Chassé and Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart, Hougan argued that the historical pattern is breaking down, and a longer, more sustained growth phase could be on the horizon. Traditionally, crypto markets have followed a four-year rhythm driven by Bitcoin’s halving events, shifting interest rates, and the cyclical blow-ups that have rattled the industry. But Hougan believes these drivers are now losing influence. Matt Hougan Predicts ‘Sustained Boom’ for Crypto as Traditional Cycles Fade In a follow-up post on X , Hougan pointed to the diminishing impact of the Bitcoin halving , noting that each one has half the effect of the last. “The halving is half as important every four years,” he said. Why is the four-year cycle dead? 1) The forces that have created prior four-year cycles are weaker: i) The halving is half as important every four years; ii) The interest rate cycle is positive for crypto, not negative (as it was in 2018 and 2022); iii) Blow-up risk is… https://t.co/F9ybjHEeB5 — Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) July 25, 2025 The rationale is simple: as block rewards diminish in absolute terms, their effect on overall market supply shrinks relative to the growing scale of the crypto economy. As such, halvings no longer serve as the singular driving force behind bullish market cycles. He also noted how interest rate cycles, once a severe headwind for crypto in downturns like 2018 and 2022, are now acting as tailwinds, buoyed by a more stable and accommodative macro environment. Hougan further emphasized that the risk of blowups, which had once controlled cycles in the crypto space, has been greatly reduced due to the shift to improved regulation and growing institutional involvement. In place of the old cycle, Hougan sees new forces taking hold, ones that move on longer timelines and aren’t tied to halving years. At the top of the list is the growing inflow of capital into crypto-related ETFs . That wave, which started in 2024 , is just beginning, he said, and could last five to ten years. Institutional adoption is another key trend. Hougan said pensions, endowments, and national account platforms are only starting to embrace crypto exposure. He expects that trend to accelerate as more crypto ETFs win approval. He also pointed to progress on the regulatory front. In his view, January 2025 marked the beginning of a new era of policymaking for the industry. Hougan cited the passage of the GENIUS Act earlier this month as a major shift. As GENIUS Act passes, regulatory paths stabilize across jurisdictions and digital assets may find stronger footing for long-term planning. #genius #stablecoin https://t.co/Hdq2wceITt — Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) July 18, 2025 The legislation has opened the door for Wall Street to begin building financial products around crypto, he said, predicting that banks will invest billions over the coming years. In his post, Hougan added that new developments such as the rise of crypto treasury firms holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets are shaping a different kind of cycle. He believes these emerging patterns won’t follow the sharp booms and busts of the past. “I think it’s more of a sustained steady boom than a supercycle,” Hougan wrote. “The long-term pro-crypto forces will overwhelm the classic four-year cycle forces.” Looking ahead, he believes 2026 will be a strong year for crypto, although he warned that volatility is still expected. Bitwise CIO Sees Bitcoin on Path to $1M Amid Policy Shifts and Growing Institutional Support This is not the first time Hougan has believed that Bitcoin has entered a new phase of institutional adoption, marked by major shifts in finance and policy. On December 13, 2024, Hougan pointed to several key developments signaling this shift : BlackRock’s suggested 2% portfolio allocation to Bitcoin, the rapid uptake of spot Bitcoin ETFs, and growing public support from financial leaders like Ray Dalio. He also noted the increasing political acceptance of crypto, noting President Donald Trump’s vocal backing of Bitcoin and his appearance at a major industry event . Forward to this year, Hougan predicted Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, driven by demand from sovereign wealth funds, public companies, and institutional investors. Despite the controversy surrounding Trump's proposed US crypto reserve allocation, Bitwise CEO @Matt_Hougan believes the “market has this wrong.” #Altcoin #DonaldTrump #Crypto https://t.co/rW2zJpsVaC — Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) March 5, 2025 “The final barrier fell when governments became holders,” he said. “Bitcoin’s survival was no longer in doubt; growth became the focus.” Hougan maintains that Bitcoin is now in a new phase, less speculative and more institutional and structural. The post Bitwise CIO Declares “Four-Year Crypto Cycle Is Dead”—Is a Steady, Record-Breaking Boom Next? appeared first on Cryptonews .
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Bitcoin traders turn cautious as BTC trades near a critical support level, but outright panic is absent in derivatives markets.
Ki Young Ju claims the Bitcoin cycle theory is dead, confronting adaptation challenges. Institutional adoption significantly influences Bitcoin's market dynamics, altering the cycle. Continue Reading: Bitcoin Surges as Institutional Adoption Shifts Market Dynamics The post Bitcoin Surges as Institutional Adoption Shifts Market Dynamics appeared first on COINTURK NEWS .
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Meta will stop running political ads across the European Union starting October 2025. The Zuckerberg-led operator of Facebook and Instagram is citing what it calls overly complicated new regulations that make it too risky to continue. The decision, disclosed on Friday, follows the implementation of the EU’s Transparency and Targeting of Political Advertising Regulation (TTPA). The law is part of the EU’s effort to clean up how politics plays out online, making sure voters know who’s behind the ads they see and why they were targeted. The company argues that the regulation creates “significant operational challenges and legal uncertainties.” As a result, the company will no longer permit ads relating to “political, electoral and social issues” within EU jurisdictions from October onward. “We continue to believe online political advertising is a vital part of modern politics,” Meta said in a statement. Another knot in Meta’s fraught relationship with Brussels EU lawmakers claim they have grown increasingly alarmed by how easily foreign actors and bad-faith campaigns can sway voters using targeted online ads. The TTPA now requires platforms to publicly disclose who paid for a political ad, how much was spent, what demographics were targeted, and why. All of this information must be stored in a searchable database available to journalists, regulators, and the public. Most of the law’s provisions kick in on October 10, 2025, just in time for campaigns ahead of the next European Parliament elections to either comply or sit it out. Meta is already facing scrutiny under the Digital Services Act and Digital Markets Act, both laws aimed at reining in the power of Big Tech. Just this month, Meta also declined to sign the EU’s AI Code of Practice. Other tech firms, including OpenAI and Anthropic, have agreed to sign on. Behind the scenes, insiders say Meta feels boxed in by what it sees as Europe’s increasingly aggressive digital agenda. The company has also found a more sympathetic ear in Washington, where policymakers, particularly under the Trump administration, have pushed back against Brussels’ growing influence in tech policy. The impact on voters and campaigns From October, political parties, NGOs, and advocacy groups across the EU will no longer be able to run paid ads on Facebook and Instagram. However, they can still post content and reach followers organically, but without paid targeting tools, their reach could be drastically reduced. Analysts suggest that the TTPA will likely affect independent candidates and smaller parties that don’t have the pull or following of larger parties across social media platforms. These groups often tend to rely on low-cost and highly targeted digital ads to compete with the heavyweights who have deep pockets and can afford TV spots and massive billboards. Google already made a similar move last year, stating that it was going to put an end to political ads across the EU ahead of the TTPA rollout. Cryptopolitan Academy: Want to grow your money in 2025? Learn how to do it with DeFi in our upcoming webclass. Save Your Spot
A Bitcoin ( BTC ) whale wallet has resumed activity after lying low for approximately 14 and a half years, according to on-chain data. According to blockchain tracking platform Lookonchain, the whale moved Bitcoin worth approximately $469.8 million after being dormant since the last transaction was conducted on January 15th of 2011. Throughout that period, the price of Bitcoin has risen from approximately $0.393 to $118,561, a gain of at least 30,168,093%. The whale accumulated the Bitcoin over two days starting on January 13th of 2011. Prior to moving the large Bitcoin stash, the whale carried out a test transaction for $218. Source: Bitinfocharts While the wallet was dormant for over 14 years, there were potential dusting attacks conducted on the address. Dusting attacks occur when minuscule amounts of Bitcoin are sent to a particular address to try to de-anonymize the wallet owner. The awakening of the dormant wallet comes less than a month after two addresses made headlines by moving 80,000 BTC after being dormant since April of 2011. At the time, Coinbase director Conor Grogan claimed that the addresses could have been recipients of Bitcoin stolen following a hack. Earlier this week, crypto analytics platform Santiment said that Bitcoin whales holding over 1,000 BTC dropped minimally in a week amid a small drop in the price of BTC. Follow us on X , Facebook and Telegram Don't Miss a Beat – Subscribe to get email alerts delivered directly to your inbox Check Price Action Surf The Daily Hodl Mix Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing. Generated Image: Midjourney The post Ancient Bitcoin Whale Comes Alive After Lying Low for Over 14 Years, Moves $469,811,057 in BTC at 30,00,000%+ Profit: On-Chain Data appeared first on The Daily Hodl .
New data shows stolen crypto is laundered within minutes, often before hacks are even disclosed.
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