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The chief investment officer (CIO) of crypto asset management firm Bitwise, Matt Hougan, is saying the four-year cycle, which has traditionally influenced the boom and bust cycles of Bitcoin ( BTC ) and the rest of the crypto market, is “dead.” Hougan says the “forces that have created prior four-year cycles are weaker” currently and this includes the Bitcoin halving. According to Hougan, the impact and importance of the Bitcoin halving falls by half every four years. Additionally, Hougan says there exists a friendlier regulatory environment and institutional investors have embraced Bitcoin and other crypto assets. Per Hougan, these “bigger forces” don’t synchronize with the four-year cycle. “i) The movement of assets into [exchange-traded funds] ETFs is a 5 – 10 year trend. It started in 2024; ii) Broader institutional adoption is just getting started (ETFs still being approved on national account platforms, pensions and endowments just now considering crypto, etc.) iii) Regulatory progress began in earnest in January 2025 and will run for multiple years; iv) Wall Street is just now starting to build on crypto, and will invest billions in the quarters and years to come. This started in earnest with the passage of the GENIUS Act this month.” As a result, the Bitwise CIO says these emerging forces will be more influential in determining the future of Bitcoin and other crypto assets than the four-year cycle going forward. “All this suggests to me that the long-term pro-crypto forces will overwhelm the classic “four-year cycle” forces, to the extent those exist, and that 2026 will be a good year.” Follow us on X , Facebook and Telegram Don't Miss a Beat – Subscribe to get email alerts delivered directly to your inbox Check Price Action Surf The Daily Hodl Mix Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing. Generated Image: Midjourney The post Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan Says Four-Year Cycle Is Dead, Predicts 2026 Will Be a Good Year for Bitcoin and Crypto – Here’s Why appeared first on The Daily Hodl .
With global M2 money supply climbing to an all-time high of $95 trillion to $96 trillion, bitcoin—trading between $117,800 and $118,102 in the past 24 hours—looks set to capture serious upside in 2025 as liquidity floods into assets. M2 Money Boom: Why Bitcoin Prices May Soar Amid Liquidity Flood Plenty of crypto fans are banking
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Bitcoin delivers a classic liquidity grab with a correction below $115,000 only to bounce back, while traders eye a BTC price showdown with new all-time highs next.
Bitwise investment director Matt Hougan concluded that four-year cycles are no longer relevant for Bitcoin. The forces that shaped these cycles have weakened in the new environment. The expert drew attention to the following changes: Halvings, which led to ”demand shocks,” have been replaced by steady, incremental purchases of cryptocurrency by institutions and corporations. The risk of collapse has been reduced by improved regulation and the institutionalization of the industry. The new trend for the next 5–10 years is the influx of funds into BTC ETFs. Traditional financial institutions are only just beginning to participate. Legislative support, such as the recent passage of the GENIUS Act, is helping bring Wall Street players who will invest “billions in the coming years” in cryptocurrency, Hougan said. He added that, in the context of macroeconomics, the correlation with changes in Fed interest rates has become positive, not negative as it was in 2018 and 2022. “All of this suggests that long-term cryptocurrency forces will overwhelm the classic ‘quadruple cycle’ factors, if there is such a thing. 2026 will be a good year. I could be wrong, but we’ll see significant volatility. And I think it’s more of a ‘stable, stable boom’ than a supercycle,” Hougan said. However, he identified one “significant risk” to watch: a boom in the formation of corporate Bitcoin treasuries. The day before, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju admitted that the theory of the first cryptocurrency cycles no longer works. The analyst apologized for his previous erroneous forecasts.
Bitwise investment director Matt Hougan concluded that four-year cycles are no longer relevant for Bitcoin. The forces that shaped these cycles have weakened in the new environment. The expert drew attention to the following changes: Halvings, which led to ”demand shocks,” have been replaced by steady, incremental purchases of cryptocurrency by institutions and corporations. The risk of collapse has been reduced by improved regulation and the institutionalization of the industry. The new trend for the next 5–10 years is the influx of funds into BTC ETFs. Traditional financial institutions are only just beginning to participate. Legislative support, such as the recent passage of the GENIUS Act, is helping bring Wall Street players who will invest “billions in the coming years” in cryptocurrency, Hougan said. He added that, in the context of macroeconomics, the correlation with changes in Fed interest rates has become positive, not negative as it was in 2018 and 2022. “All of this suggests that long-term cryptocurrency forces will overwhelm the classic ‘quadruple cycle’ factors, if there is such a thing. 2026 will be a good year. I could be wrong, but we’ll see significant volatility. And I think it’s more of a ‘stable, stable boom’ than a supercycle,” Hougan said. However, he identified one “significant risk” to watch: a boom in the formation of corporate Bitcoin treasuries. The day before, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju admitted that the theory of the first cryptocurrency cycles no longer works. The analyst apologized for his previous erroneous forecasts.
As July hurtles toward its end, crypto traders are scrambling to position themselves before the next leg of the 2025 bull run, and one name is turning serious heads, Mutuum Finance (MUTM). Mutuum Finance has successfully sold out its Phase 5 presale. The project has now entered Phase 6, with the token priced at $0.035,…
A young and tech-savvy population, combating inflationary pressures, is driving Bitcoin adoption and a new financial system in Pakistan.
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