The ongoing legal battle between the SEC and Ripple continues to shape the landscape of XRP’s future. Despite potential setbacks, XRP remains active on various exchanges, presenting opportunities for traders.
The post Popular Figure Says XRP Could Skyrocket Despite SEC’s Latest Move Against Ripple appeared first on Coinpedia Fintech News Even though the crypto market is showing signs of recovery, XRP has been stuck around the $0.54 mark. However, popular crypto commentator BitBoy remains confident that XRP is on track for a huge rally, despite recent moves by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) against Ripple. Could XRP’s price surge soon, amidst the legal …
Summary Our recent check of Bitcoin’s technicals and fundamentals has strengthened our conviction that bitcoin is poised for a high-volatility catch-up rally. We noticed this month that publicly traded bitcoin miners, who now control a record ~30% of the global hashrate, have significantly increased their bitcoin holdings. A growing list of public companies around the world are duplicating the corporate treasury strategy pioneered by MicroStrategy. Our findings support the conclusion that institutional flows are leading price, not following it. We believe bitcoin is set for a breakout due to increased BTC holdings by miners, rising corporate treasury investments, and higher Bitcoin ETP flows. Please note that VanEck has exposure to bitcoin. Some Takeaways for Mid-September – Mid-October: Our recent check of Bitcoin’s ( BTC-USD ) technicals and fundamentals has strengthened our conviction that bitcoin is poised for a high-volatility catch-up rally. Despite its recently subdued volatility compared to other asset classes, mounting signs - including political momentum, increasing institutional adoption, and bullish on-chain and market data - indicate the likelihood of an impending breakout. We noticed this month that publicly traded bitcoin miners, who now control a record ~30% of the global hashrate, have significantly increased their bitcoin ((BTC)) holdings. The U.S.-listed miners in our coverage added 2% to their BTC treasuries MoM in September, continuing their 11% MoM holding/buying spree from August despite increased prices. These additions coincide with an increasing number of BTC that has been untouched for 6+ months (currently in the 95% percentile vs. all-time history). A growing list of public companies around the world are duplicating the corporate treasury strategy pioneered by MicroStrategy (+194% YTD). Corporate holdings of BTC rose 8% last month, led by MicroStrategy (MSTR) and German and Japanese firms. We did some quantitative analysis on the predictive power between ETP flows and bitcoin price. Our findings support the conclusion that institutional flows are leading price, not following it. Bitcoin’s Price Action Bitcoin’s price rose by 11% month-over-month (MoM), continuing to form higher highs and higher lows since the market bottomed in August. Still, volatility remains subdued relative to other FX pairs and investable asset classes. Recent positive poll numbers for Trump appear to be leading Bitcoin’s latest rally, the impact of which can be seen in a decline in the % of coins that have moved in the last 6 months: now just 17%, in the third percentile of activity. We believe this “buy and hold” activity highlights BTC’s growing appeal as a macro-hedge, particularly among institutional investors. Indeed, BitcoinTreasuries.net data shows that public companies have increased their bitcoin holdings by ~8% since September 11th. Notable examples include Samara Asset Group’s ( CAGPF ) recently announced plans to offer up to €30m in senior bonds to purchase bitcoin. Japanese real estate manager Metaplanet ( MTPLF ), Inc. rallied over 15% on October 15th after the firm announced adding another 1 billion yen worth of bitcoin, bringing their total BTC treasury to ~855 BTC (~$56 million .D). Metaplanet shares are up 675% in the last 12 months. Moreover, exchange-traded products (ETPs) and other funds hit record-high aggregate ownership at nearly 1.1 million bitcoins in late September, approaching the same ownership level as Satoshi Nakamoto. Lastly, in a sign the U.S. market may be opening up to banks, BNY ( BNY ), the largest custodian bank in the world, received an SAB 121 exemption from the SEC to custody crypto assets for digital asset ETPs, sidestepping the onerous requirement to list crypto as balance sheet liabilities. While the exception is limited, it potentially paves the way for the future of bank-custodied digital assets, pending discussions of “additional use cases” with the SEC. Market Sentiment: The percentage of Bitcoin addresses in profit grew by 6% over the past 30 days, with nearly nine out of ten addresses sitting on gains today. The unrealized profit/loss ratio also improved by 6%, signaling a more positive outlook compared to the summer months, despite currently sitting at a neutral 0.48 on the 7-day average. Both metrics, at the 71st and 67th percentiles of their all-time history, suggest significant room for upside potential as the next leg of the bull market develops after eight months of choppy price action. Bitcoin dominance: Bitcoin's dominance ticked up one point to 57%, maintaining highs not seen since April 2021 and further solidifying its status as the primary store of value within the crypto market. As detailed in last month’s report , we think Bitcoin is uniquely positioned among crypto assets to thrive in either a pro-crypto or crypto-hostile administration. We believe ongoing hostility from U.S. regulators like Gary Gensler toward non-Bitcoin digital assets could disrupt the usual pattern of Bitcoin dominance peaking around election time. While sectors like DeFi, L1s, L2s, and GameFi have seen short-term outperformance, Bitcoin has maintained its gains more consistently, as shown in this month’s Chart of the Month. A more crypto-friendly Trump administration could potentially reverse this trend by introducing clearer regulations and de-risking investments in the more participatory proof-of-stake crypto assets. Regional trading: The long-term geographical trend of Asia selling bitcoin to the U.S. and Europe remains intact, with traders during U.S. and EU hours driving the strongest price performance, +2% and +4%, respectively, in the last month. Regional Trading MoM Change (%) YoY Change (%) Asia Hours Price Change MoM ($) 0 1 U.S. Hours Price Change MoM ($) 2 5 EU Hours Price Change MoM ($) 4 4 Source: Glassnode, as of 10/14/24. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Funding Rates: Over the past month, the 7-day moving average of annualized bitcoin futures funding rates rose by 8%, reflecting increased risk appetite as prices recovered. At the 49th percentile of its historical range, this indicates relatively neutral sentiment - especially given bitcoin’s historically bullish market bias - suggesting room for increased leverage among aggressive traders. Bitcoin ETPs and Price Correlation One of the standout findings this month is the growing influence of bitcoin ETPs on the market, marking a pivotal shift in bitcoin’s market structure. U.S. bitcoin ETP net inflows totaled $19.4 billion through October 14th. The correlation between weekly ETP inflows and bitcoin's returns has shown a strong positive relationship, with an R² value of 0.3422. This trend became even stronger when analyzing weeks from July 1st – September 22nd, which yielded an R² value of 0.5791. Interestingly, we also found that daily ETP flows also showed some modest predictive power for BTC price changes in the following after-hours trading period (R² = .0527) , demonstrating a spillover of US “TradFi” market momentum into the 24/7/365 crypto markets. U.S. Bitcoin ETP Inflows Help Drive Price Discovery Source: Farside, Glassnode, YTD through September 30th. These findings suggest that institutional participation via ETPs is playing an increasingly important role in bitcoin's price discovery process. When examining the reverse relationship, we found a less statistically significant impact. Bitcoin’s after-hours returns (price movements overnight, on weekends, and on holidays) showed some predictive power for U.S. bitcoin ETP inflows on the following trading day (R² = 0.1261), suggestive of institutional momentum-chasing. We found this relationship strengthened on a weekly basis, with one week’s bitcoin returns explaining the variance of the following week’s U.S. bitcoin ETP inflows with an R² value of 0.3422. However, when filtering for July 1st– September 22nd, we found that there was no statistically significant relationship between bitcoin’s returns in each given week and U.S. bitcoin ETP flows in the following week. These findings underscore the idea that institutional flows are leading price, not following it. Source: Farside, Glassnode, YTD through September 30th. R-squared, the coefficient of determination, is a statistical measure that indicates the proportion of the variation in a dependent variable that is explained by the independent variable(s) in a regression model. Bitcoin ChainCheck Monthly Dashboard As of October 15th, 2024 7-day avg 30 day change 1 (%) 365 day change (%) Last 30 days Percentilevs all-time history (%) Bitcoin Price $ 62,493 8 131 97 Daily Active Addresses 690,451 -3 -21 66 Daily New Addresses 276,290 -8 -29 56 Daily Transactions 661,649 13 144 97 Daily Inscriptions 9,055 -63 -45 30 Total Transfer Volume ((USD)) $40,178,512,677 -30 103 85 % Supply Active, last 180 days 17% -14 1 3 % Supply Dormant for 3+ Years 46 (%) 0 13 98 Avg Fees ((USD)) $2.66 257 43 57 Avg Fees ((BTC)) 0.00004 228 -38 9 Percent of BTC Addresses in profit 88 6 34 71 Unrealized profit/loss ratio 0.48 6 81 67 Global Power Consumption (TWh) 130 2 51 99 Total Daily BTC Miner Revenues ((USD)) $29,868,367 19 11 84 Total Crypto Equities' Market Cap * ((USD)) (MM) $134,115 20 159 73 Transfer volume from Miners to Exchanges ((USD)) $3,056,250 50 -59 72 Bitcoin Dominance 57% 1 13 82 Bitcoin Futures Annualized Basis 8% 11 86 49 Mining Difficulty ((T)) 92 0 59 100 *DAPP market cap as a proxy, as of Oct 14th, 2024 1 30 day change & 365 day change are relative to the 7-day avg, not absolute Bitcoin’s Network Activity, Adoption, and Fees On-chain metrics for Bitcoin have shown mixed results over the past month: Daily transactions: Daily transactions grew 13% MoM. Transaction activity is historically high at the 97th percentile. Ordinals inscriptions: Daily inscriptions (e.g. Bitcoin NFTs) transactions fell 63% MoM, a significant pullback from the Ordinal ecosystem’s surge in activity in early September. Total transfer volume: Total transfer volume declined by 30% MoM. However, this metric is somewhat overstated, as last month’s transfer volumes peaked at highs not seen since April. Transfer volumes remain up 103% YoY and sit at their historical 85th percentile. Average transaction fees: USD-denominated transaction fees increased by 257% to an average of $2.26 MoM, driven recently by increased Runes transactions . Runes are a type of fungible token standard on Bitcoin, primarily used for meme trading. While up 43% YoY in USD terms, fees are down 38% YoY in bitcoin ((BTC)) terms, pointing to the necessity of bitcoin’s continued price appreciation for healthy miner economics. Bitcoin’s so-called security budget, comprised of Bitcoin’s (deflating) mining rewards and network transaction fees, remains a topic of concern for the network’s long-term health. However, having weathered the four-year halving cycle reset this April, it is a relatively distant concern. September Bitcoin Mined, Bought, and Sold by Pure-Play Miners Source: Company Filings, VanEck Research as of 10/14/2024. Bitcoin Miners Total daily BTC miner revenues: Driven by higher prices and increased transaction fees from network activity, miner revenues reached ~$29.9 million, a 19% MoM increase. Transfer volume from miners to exchanges (USD): After reaching YTD lows in early September, Bitcoin transfers from miners to exchanges increased by 50% MoM. Curiously, however, the U.S.-listed miners that we cover appeared to increase their holdings. This parallels the trend of European and American traders accumulating Bitcoin from Asian sellers. Among the 12 U.S.-listed miners in our coverage, the 9 maintaining Bitcoin treasuries have continued to increase their aggregate BTC holdings, driven primarily by the pure-play miners we noted in our AI/HPC research : MARA ( MARA ), RIOT ( RIOT ), and CLSK ( CLSK ). While other miners like CORZ ( CORZ ) and CIFR ( CIFR ) have divested from their BTC treasuries to fund AI/HPC buildouts, these pure-play miners are emulating MicroStrategy’s leveraged Bitcoin approach by increasing their BTC positions. MARA particularly stood out for continuing its months-long Bitcoin buying spree, financed by ~$244 million in convertible note proceeds announced in August. Publicly traded miners’ hashrate dominance: Publicly traded Bitcoin miners now control a record ~30% of the global hashrate. This concentration means that any further pivots by these listed miners toward AI/HPC could have significant implications for global hashrate and difficulty. Divesting from mining reduces the global hash rate and mining difficulty, making the sector more profitable for remaining players, all else being equal. Rise of the pivotoors: As of October 14th, CORZ (+278%) leads our covered Bitcoin miners YTD. In fact, only miners that have announced AI/HPC pivots are positive on the year: CORZ, WULF (+97%), IREN (+26%), and CIFR (+5%). As referenced above, in late September, CIFR announced selling over one-third of its bitcoin treasury to finance the acquisition of its new West Texas Barber Lake site. Similarly, in early October, WULF ( WULF ) sold its 25% equity interest in the Nautilus Cryptomine joint venture to fuel further the expansion of its AI/HPC and self-mining efforts at its Lake Mariner facility. Better late than never: In a fireside chat with Bernstein on October 3rd, RIOT’s CEO Jason Les discussed the potential suitability of its Rockdale and Corsicana sites for AI/HPC. Relative to its peers, RIOT has been late in joining the AI/HPC discussion. Justifiably, Mr. Les explained that Riot does not want to create unnecessary hype nor invest in AI/HPC infrastructure without a customer. With MARA indicating in March its strategic initiative to diversify its operations with its MARA 2PIC700 immersion cooling system, CLSK remains perhaps the only U.S.-listed miner in our coverage unequivocally committed to remaining a “pure-play” bitcoin miner - at least for now. Echoing RIOT’s reluctance to create undue hype, CLSK’s CEO Zach Bradford expressed skepticism about bitcoin miners’ ability to compete for high-quality revenues, stating that despite CLSK owning two buildings that could meet AI/HPC data center criteria, they are choosing to remain focused on efficient bitcoin mining. As of October 14th, RIOT is the best-performing mining stock over the last month, +25%. Chart of the Month: Bitcoin’s 2-Year Performance vs. Other Crypto Asset Categories Source: TheTie as of 10/11/2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Notes: Net unrealized profit/loss ratio (NUPL) can be calculated by subtracting the realized market cap from the market cap and dividing the result by the market cap. When a high percentage of Bitcoin’s market cap consists of unrealized profits, it can be interpreted that investors are greedy. Background reading here . Disclosures Coin Definitions Bitcoin ( BTC ) is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator. It can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer Bitcoin network without intermediaries. Risk Considerations This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities, financial instruments or digital assets mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, tax advice, or any call to action. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results, are for illustrative purposes only, are valid as of the date of this communication, and are subject to change without notice. Actual future performance of any assets or industries mentioned are unknown. Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. VanEck does not guarantee the accuracy of third party data. The information herein represents the opinion of the author(s), but not necessarily those of VanEck or its other employees. Index performance is not representative of fund performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Investments in digital assets and Web3 companies are highly speculative and involve a high degree of risk. These risks include, but are not limited to: the technology is new and many of its uses may be untested; intense competition; slow adoption rates and the potential for product obsolescence; volatility and limited liquidity, including but not limited to, inability to liquidate a position; loss or destruction of key(s) to access accounts or the blockchain; reliance on digital wallets; reliance on unregulated markets and exchanges; reliance on the internet; cybersecurity risks; and the lack of regulation and the potential for new laws and regulation that may be difficult to predict. Moreover, the extent to which Web3 companies or digital assets utilize blockchain technology may vary, and it is possible that even widespread adoption of blockchain technology may not result in a material increase in the value of such companies or digital assets. Digital asset prices are highly volatile, and the value of digital assets, and Web3 companies, can rise or fall dramatically and quickly. If their value goes down, there’s no guarantee that it will rise again. As a result, there is a significant risk of loss of your entire principal investment. Digital assets are not generally backed or supported by any government or central bank and are not covered by FDIC or SIPC insurance. Accounts at digital asset custodians and exchanges are not protected by SPIC and are not FDIC insured. Furthermore, markets and exchanges for digital assets are not regulated with the same controls or customer protections available in traditional equity, option, futures, or foreign exchange investing. Digital assets include, but are not limited to, cryptocurrencies, tokens, NFTs, assets stored or created using blockchain technology, and other Web3 products. Web3 companies include but are not limited to, companies that involve the development, innovation, and/or utilization of blockchain, digital assets, or crypto technologies. All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. As with any investment strategy, there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be met and investors may lose money. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
The recent breakout of Pepecoin (PEPE) from its resistance level has sparked excitement in the cryptocurrency market. Investors are eyeing potential gains as the price pattern suggests a bullish trend may be forming. Alongside this, Mpeppe (MPEPE) has emerged as a serious contender, attracting major Shiba Inu (SHIB) holders, thanks to its unique blend of meme culture and financial innovation.
Morgan Stanley’s recent revelation of a $272 million investment in Bitcoin ETFs signifies a pivotal moment for institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies. This strategic move is part of a broader phenomenon
The world of meme coins is highly competitive, and Book of Meme (BOME) has been a standout in the space for quite some time. However, recent market dynamics have led many of BOME’s major holders to look for alternative investments, with Mpeppe (MPEPE) emerging as a key contender. As Mpeppe (MPEPE) approaches its listing on Bitmart, Book of Meme (BOME) whales are showing increasing interest in this rising star, anticipating significant gains in the near future.
United States congressional candidate for Virginia Bentley Hensel used an AI chatbot, “DonBot,” in place of opponent Don Beyer in a debate, highlighting AI’s increasing role in politics.
Pepe Diddy could turn early investors into multi-millionaires, like Shiba Inu (SHIB) and Dogecoin (DOGE) did. Pepe Diddy (PEPEDIDD), a new Solana memecoin that was launched today, is set to explode over 19,000% in price in the coming days. This is because PEPEDIDD is set to soon be listed on numerous crypto exchanges, according to reports. This will give the Solana memecoin exposure to millions of additional investors, who will pour funds into the coin and drive its price up. Currently, Pepe Diddy can only be purchased via Solana decentralized exchanges, like Jup.ag and Raydium.io, and early investors stand to
It’s not uncommon for holders to seek safer investments when prices dip. Recently, Book of Meme (BOME) saw a significant price drop, raising concerns among its investors. As the market continues to evolve, many Book of Meme (BOME) holders are now looking for alternative projects to secure their holdings, and one name that has emerged as a popular choice is Mpeppe (MPEPE).
The post Michael Saylor’s $100 Billion Bet: Is Apple Ready to Invest in Bitcoin? appeared first on Coinpedia Fintech News Bitcoin (BTC) has broken above its bull flag pattern and is now consolidating just above that level. The big question is whether it will continue to push higher and surpass the previous swing high of $70,000, or if the bullish momentum might start to fade. Michael Saylor, the CEO of MicroStrategy, in a recent Markets …