US-traded spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) reached a historic milestone on Wednesday, surpassing $50 billion in total net inflows. This achievement is being considered a critical step in Bitcoin's institutionalization process. Spot Bitcoin ETFs Surpass $50 Billion Net Inflow Threshold on Surge of Institutional Demand According to data provider SoSoValue, 12 spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total of $218 million in net inflows on Wednesday, bringing the total net inflow to $50.16 billion. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen strong momentum in April, May and June, with billions of dollars in uninterrupted capital inflows. BlackRock's IBIT product saw the most inflows of the day, with $125.5 million. Ark & 21Shares' ARKB fund saw net inflows of $56.96 million, while Grayscale's Mini Bitcoin Trust saw net inflows of $15.8 million. Other major providers such as Fidelity, Bitwise, Valkyrie, and Invesco also reported positive inflows. BTC Markets analyst Rachael Lucas commented on this milestone with these words: “Spot Bitcoin ETFs surpassing $50 billion is a defining moment in the institutionalization of Bitcoin. This is not a retail investor frenzy; this is a steady flow of capital from asset managers, corporate treasuries, and wealth management platforms.” According to Lucas, demand for Bitcoin is rising due to both geopolitical tensions and former President Donald Trump's promises of aggressive interest rate cuts. Bitcoin's stable supply and global liquidity make it a prominent asset during this period. However, the real disruptor is the ETF format. “These ETF products are regulated and transparent, making them easily accessible to investors through stock and bond infrastructures. They make participation easy.” On the same day, Bitcoin broke new all-time highs, reaching $112,152. The leading cryptocurrency, which was trading at $110,990 at press time, has gained 2% in the last 24 hours. Spot Ethereum ETFs are also continuing their upward trend. Ether ETFs saw net inflows of $211.32 million on Wednesday, bringing their total net inflows to $4.72 billion so far. *This is not investment advice. Continue Reading: Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) Cross a Critical Threshold as Institutional Demand Rises! Here Are the Details
Just as decentralized finance reshaped traditional banking and Bitcoin introduced a new paradigm for digital value, a new wave of AI innovation is poised to redefine enterprise software. The familiar reign of Software as a Service (SaaS) is being challenged, with a bold vision emerging where AI agents become the central operating force, fundamentally altering how businesses and individuals interact with technology. The Revolutionary Shift to AI Agents Dave Park, co-founder and CEO of Narada AI, states, “SaaS is going away.” This isn’t just a provocative statement; it’s a declaration of a fundamental shift in how we conceive and utilize digital tools. Park, speaking on Bitcoin World’s flagship podcast, Equity, envisions a future where the traditional reliance on numerous SaaS applications becomes obsolete. He highlights a critical inefficiency: “The typical knowledge worker today deals with anywhere from 17 to 25 different SaaS tools and portals every day, wasting two and a half hours just manually looking up or updating these systems.” The solution, according to Park, lies in a simplified ecosystem: “We believe in a future where it’ll just be the data, the databases, and AI agents or agentic models that take your request and operate across those silos to get the job done.” This isn’t merely an incremental upgrade; it’s a complete re-imagining of the digital workspace, driven by intelligent automation that understands intent and executes complex tasks autonomously. Understanding Agentic AI: Beyond Traditional Automation What exactly is agentic AI , and how does it differ from the automation we’ve grown accustomed to? Traditional automation typically involves scripting predefined rules or workflows. If a condition is met, a specific action is triggered. Agentic AI, however, goes much further. It involves intelligent software entities that can reason, plan, and execute multi-step tasks across various systems, even when explicit APIs or integrations are missing. They learn and adapt, much like a human assistant would. Narada AI, emerging from UC Berkeley research, has developed what they call “large action models” (LAMs). These are a powerful evolution of large language models (LLMs), designed not just to understand and generate text, but to reason through and complete complex, multi-step tasks across different work tools. The key differentiator is their ability to operate effectively even when direct API connections aren’t available, navigating systems in a more human-like, adaptive manner. To better illustrate the distinction, consider the following comparison: Feature Traditional Automation Agentic AI (e.g., Narada AI) Task Execution Pre-defined, rule-based, rigid workflows. Reasoning, dynamic, adaptive to new situations and goals. Integration Relies heavily on robust APIs; breaks if APIs change. Operates across silos even with missing APIs; learns to navigate interfaces. Problem Solving Limited to known scenarios and explicit instructions. Handles novel, multi-step, complex problems; infers intent. Learning & Adaptation Minimal to none; requires manual updates or re-scripting. Continuously learns and improves from interactions and feedback. User Interaction Requires users to manage multiple interfaces and trigger workflows. Operates autonomously based on high-level requests; user provides goals. The End of SaaS as We Know It? The vision presented by Narada AI suggests a future where the concept of “using” individual apps might become outdated. Instead of opening a CRM, then an email client, then a project management tool, an AI agent could simply receive a high-level request – for example, “Follow up with all leads from last week’s conference who opened the introductory email but haven’t replied, and schedule a call.” The agent would then autonomously navigate across your CRM, email platform, and calendar, executing the necessary steps without direct human intervention across each application. This shift has profound implications for enterprise software . Companies might move away from licensing dozens of distinct SaaS products, instead focusing on robust data infrastructure that AI agents can access and orchestrate. The value proposition shifts from features within an app to the seamless flow of information and execution of tasks across an entire digital ecosystem. Narada AI’s Vision: Powering the Future of Productivity Narada AI is not just talking about this future; they are building it. Their debut at Bitcoin World Disrupt 2024 showcased their large action models, demonstrating a tangible path to overcoming the inefficiencies of current enterprise environments. By enabling agents to reason and act across disparate systems, even those lacking modern APIs, Narada AI directly addresses the “two and a half hours wasted” problem Park identified. While the initial focus might be on large enterprises, the benefits are expected to cascade. Park believes that tools like Narada could eventually empower solopreneurs and smaller teams, leveling the playing field by providing sophisticated automation capabilities previously exclusive to large organizations with dedicated IT departments. Imagine a small business owner able to manage sales, marketing, and customer service with a single intelligent assistant, rather than juggling a dozen subscriptions. Navigating the Agentic AI Landscape: Challenges and Opportunities The timing for this conversation is crucial. Y Combinator’s most recent batch included over 70 agentic startups, signaling a strong belief in this emerging sector. Major players like Grammarly are also investing heavily, building comprehensive AI work stacks through strategic partnerships and acquisitions. This indicates a broad industry recognition of the potential of agentic AI . However, the transition won’t be without its challenges. There are common misunderstandings about automation and the hype surrounding AI. Enterprises need to prepare their data infrastructure, ensure data quality, and establish robust security protocols to safely deploy AI agents at scale. Trust and transparency will be paramount as these agents gain more autonomy. For businesses looking to embrace this future, key actionable insights include: Assess Your Data Landscape: Understand where your data resides and how accessible it is. Clean, well-organized data is the fuel for effective AI agents. Start Small, Think Big: Begin with pilot projects in specific, high-value areas to understand the impact and refine deployment strategies. Invest in AI Literacy: Educate your workforce on the capabilities and limitations of agentic AI, fostering a culture of collaboration with these new digital assistants. Prioritize Security and Governance: As agents gain access to sensitive information and critical systems, robust security frameworks and clear governance policies are essential. The move from SaaS to AI agents represents more than just a technological upgrade; it’s a philosophical shift in how we approach productivity and digital interaction. It promises a future where technology adapts to us, rather than us adapting to technology, freeing up valuable human time for creativity, strategy, and complex problem-solving that only humans can perform. To learn more about the latest AI market trends, explore our article on key developments shaping AI Models features and institutional adoption.
A Chinese creditor of bankrupt crypto exchange FTX has pushed back against a proposal that could cut off creditor distributions to users in certain jurisdictions, including China. Key Takeaways: A Chinese FTX creditor is challenging a plan that could block payouts in 49 jurisdictions. Ji, representing over 300 creditors, claims $15 million across four verified FTX accounts. He argues China should not be restricted, citing legal property status and Hong Kong access. In a filing submitted to the Delaware Bankruptcy Court , Weiwei Ji objected to the plan on behalf of over 300 Chinese creditors. Ji, a tax resident of Singapore, said FTX classified him as a Chinese creditor due to his passport, despite his residency. FTX Creditor Claims $15M Across Four KYC-Verified Accounts He stated that his family holds four Know Your Customer (KYC)-verified FTX accounts with combined claims exceeding $15 million. “We have fully complied with every procedural requirement under the plan. The proposed motion now jeopardizes our right to distribution in an arbitrary and inequitable manner,” Ji wrote. The objection follows a motion filed by the FTX Recovery Trust seeking to evaluate claims across 49 jurisdictions flagged as “potentially restricted.” These include China, Russia, and Pakistan. The proposal involves engaging local legal experts to determine whether compliant distributions are possible. If not, the jurisdiction could be designated as restricted, and FTX could then reallocate those claims back to the trust. Claims from the 49 jurisdictions total roughly $800 million, with China accounting for the vast majority, 82%, according to figures cited by The Block. FTX Claim Distribution Restricted Jurisdictions: $470m Chinese are the largest holder of FTX claims: $380m (82% of restricted) KYC not completed- Bahamas: $290m Disputed -multiple claims: $660m Total – awaiting solution: $1.4bn Total Estimated Allowed claims: $11bn pic.twitter.com/3BKpIkA3PW — Sunil (FTX Creditor Champion) (@sunil_trades) July 7, 2025 Ji argued that the inclusion of China as a restricted jurisdiction “is unsupported by either fact or law.” He pointed to existing distribution mechanisms, including Hong Kong-based accounts, and referenced the Celsius Network case as precedent. He further noted that while mainland China bans crypto trading, digital assets are still considered legal property, and Hong Kong’s regulatory stance has become increasingly open to crypto. “Distributing claims to Chinese creditors poses no legal risk to the Trustee or its agents and constitutes a required step under the bankruptcy process,” Ji stated, urging the court to reject the motion’s proposed restrictions. Sam Bankman-Fried’s Release Date Set for 2044 FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried is now projected to be released from federal prison on December 14, 2044 , after serving less than 21 years of his 25-year sentence for fraud tied to the FTX collapse. He was also fined over $11 billion. Federal records confirm that Bankman-Fried has been moved from New York to a transfer facility in Oklahoma following nearly two years behind bars. The move comes after Bankman-Fried was reportedly placed in solitary confinement earlier this month for giving an unauthorized interview to Tucker Carlson. His incarceration began in August 2023, after Judge Lewis Kaplan revoked his bail due to allegations of witness tampering involving leaked diary entries from former Alameda CEO Caroline Ellison, who was a key witness in the case. The post Chinese FTX Creditor Challenges Plan to Block Payouts in Restricted Jurisdictions appeared first on Cryptonews .
Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple, has expressed a strong belief that the stablecoin market is poised for exponential growth, potentially surging from its current $250 billion valuation to a staggering $1 to $2 trillion within a “handful of years.” Speaking on CNBC, Garlinghouse highlighted the profound growth already witnessed in the sector and Ripple’s strategic … Continue reading "Ripple CEO Predicts Stablecoin Market to Soar to $2 Trillion" The post Ripple CEO Predicts Stablecoin Market to Soar to $2 Trillion appeared first on Cryptoknowmics-Crypto News and Media Platform .
July’s crypto market spotlight shines on BlockDAG, Avalanche, Pepe, and Chainlink as promising coins poised for significant growth and innovation. Each project offers distinct advantages—from BlockDAG’s innovative hybrid blockchain design
PENGU appears poised to extend its ongoing rally after successfully breaking above the neckline resistance of a cup and handle pattern on the daily chart. Pudgy Penguins ( PENGU ) rose over 23% intraday to hit $0.0177, its highest price since January 29. The latest move brings the token’s gains to over 125% since last month’s low and approximately 370% above its year-to-date bottom. The token’s rally has propelled it to become the top performer among the top 100 crypto assets by market capitalization, with PENGU now ranking as the 89th largest crypto asset. Its market cap has reclaimed the $1 billion milestone, underscoring a significant return of investor confidence. The recent surge was catalyzed by news that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has formally acknowledged the filing for the proposed Canary spot PENGU ETF. The ETF would allocate 80–95% of its assets to PENGU tokens and 5–15% to Pudgy Penguins NFTs, combining exposure to both the token and the broader Pudgy Penguins IP ecosystem. An acknowledgment from the securities regulator is generally viewed as bullish because it marks the first formal step in the approval process. You might also like: BREAKING: Bitcoin price hits record high as ETF demand overwhelms bearish market setup Among other on-chain trends supporting a bullish narrative, large holders, or whales, have increased their PENGU holdings by 21% over the past month, now collectively controlling 2.18 billion tokens. This accumulation during recent price dips suggests growing long-term conviction among sophisticated investors. Source: Nansen Simultaneously, PENGU’s circulating supply on exchanges has declined notably, from 15.6 billion on June 12 to 14.3 billion as of this week. A reduction in exchange reserves is typically interpreted as bullish, as it indicates reduced selling pressure and a higher likelihood of tokens being held in cold storage or long-term wallets. Further reinforcing the bullish case, data from CoinGlass shows that PENGU’s weighted funding rate turned positive on derivatives exchanges for the first time since July 1. A positive funding rate indicates that long positions are paying shorts, typically reflecting a shift toward bullish market sentiment and increased demand for leverage on the long side. PENGU price forms a cup and handle pattern The daily chart for PENGU reveals a clear cup-and-handle pattern formation, a historically reliable bullish continuation setup. The token bottomed at $0.0037 in March before rebounding to a local high of $0.0175 in May, creating a rounded base followed by a brief consolidation phase, the “handle” portion of the pattern. PENGU 1-day price chart — July 10 | Source: crypto.news The cup-and-handle formation is defined by two distinct price swings, an initial drop and recovery forming the “cup,” followed by a smaller, shallower pullback that shapes the “handle.” It has since broken above the neckline resistance of this structure, which usually signals the start of a potential breakout. The vertical distance between the cup’s upper resistance and the March low measures approximately 79%. Applying this projected move from the breakout point suggests a potential upside target near $0.0318. This would represent a gain of around 75% from the current price level. However, this bullish forecast would be invalidated if the token drops below the support level at $0.0142. At press time, PENGU remains significantly below its December 2024 high of $0.06845, leaving substantial room for upside if bullish momentum continues. Read more: YZi Labs backs launch of BNB treasury company eyeing U.S. IPO Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
In the rapidly evolving landscape where artificial intelligence intersects with daily life and even cryptocurrency discussions, a fascinating tale has emerged from the world of music technology. Imagine a scenario where an AI, like ChatGPT, becomes such a prolific ‘hype man’ for your product that it inadvertently forces you to build a new feature. This isn’t science fiction; it’s the very real experience of Adrian Holovaty , founder of the innovative music-teaching platform, Soundslice. His story highlights the unpredictable nature of AI, especially its tendency towards ChatGPT hallucination , and how it can surprisingly drive genuine AI innovation . The Curious Case of ChatGPT Hallucination and Soundslice The tale begins with a peculiar digital mystery that unfolded over several weeks for Adrian Holovaty, the visionary founder behind Soundslice. As the creator of the renowned open-source Django project, Holovaty has a deep understanding of web development and innovation. His current passion, Soundslice, launched in 2012 and proudly bootstrapped, is a sophisticated music-teaching platform. It stands out for its unique video player synchronized with music notations, guiding users through how notes should be played. One of its standout features is an AI-powered sheet music scanner, which transforms physical sheet music into interactive digital formats. It was while monitoring the error logs for this very scanner that Holovaty stumbled upon a baffling phenomenon: an influx of strange images, clearly screenshots of ChatGPT sessions, being uploaded to his site. This wasn’t just an oddity; it was a symptom of a larger, unexpected force at play, stemming directly from ChatGPT hallucination . Unveiling the AI Misinformation : What ChatGPT Got Wrong The uploaded images weren’t traditional sheet music; instead, they were filled with words and a distinctive array of symbols known as ASCII tablature. This is a text-based system primarily used for guitar notations, easily typed on a standard keyboard without specialized musical characters. While these uploads weren’t financially burdensome for Soundslice in terms of storage or bandwidth, they were creating a significant number of error logs, baffling Holovaty. His scanning system was never designed to process such notation. The mystery deepened until Holovaty decided to investigate directly, interacting with ChatGPT himself. What he discovered was astounding: ChatGPT was confidently instructing users that they could transform these ASCII tab images into audible music simply by uploading them to their Soundslice accounts. The critical problem? Soundslice couldn’t actually do this. The AI was generating pervasive AI misinformation , leading new users to a false expectation and posing a significant reputational risk to the platform. This wasn’t just a minor bug; it was a direct challenge to user trust. A Forced Hand? Music App Development Driven by AI Faced with this peculiar predicament, Holovaty and his team at Soundslice weighed their options. Should they plaster disclaimers across their site, explicitly stating, “No, we can’t turn a ChatGPT session into hearable music”? Or, should they embrace the challenge and build the very feature that ChatGPT was falsely promising? The latter option was particularly intriguing, despite ASCII tablature being an “offbeat” notation system that Soundslice had never considered supporting. In a bold move that speaks volumes about adaptability in the digital age, Holovaty chose to build the feature. This decision exemplifies a unique form of music app development , where external AI-generated misinformation directly influences product roadmap. While pleased to offer a new, helpful tool to users, Holovaty openly expressed his conflicted feelings. “I feel like our hand was forced in a weird way. Should we really be developing features in response to misinformation?” he pondered. This raised a profound question: could this be the first documented instance of a company being compelled to develop a feature solely because an AI repeatedly hallucinated its existence to a broad audience? Beyond the Bug: AI Innovation and Unexpected Outcomes The story quickly resonated within the tech community, especially among programmers on Hacker News. Their perspective offered a surprisingly relatable analogy: they likened ChatGPT’s behavior to that of an overly enthusiastic human salesperson who promises clients the moon, thereby inadvertently forcing developers to deliver new, un-planned features. Holovaty found this comparison both apt and amusing, highlighting the curious parallels between human and artificial intelligence in a business context. This incident transcends a simple bug fix; it’s a testament to the unpredictable paths that AI innovation can carve. It forces businesses to consider not just the capabilities of AI, but also its potential for unintended consequences and how to adapt strategically. In an era where AI tools like ChatGPT are becoming ubiquitous, understanding and responding to their ‘hallucinations’ might become a critical skill for entrepreneurs and developers alike, shaping the very direction of product evolution. The Vision of Adrian Holovaty : Adapting to the AI Frontier At the heart of this compelling narrative is Adrian Holovaty , whose pragmatic approach transformed a challenge into an opportunity. His decision to integrate the ASCII tablature scanning feature, despite initial reservations, demonstrates remarkable foresight and agility. It underscores a crucial lesson for all businesses navigating the AI frontier: while AI offers immense potential for efficiency and creativity, it also introduces new complexities, including the need to manage AI-generated expectations. Holovaty’s experience with Soundslice serves as a pioneering case study, illustrating how companies might increasingly find themselves in a reactive, yet ultimately innovative, position due to AI’s evolving capabilities and occasional misfires. His commitment to his music career and to the Soundslice platform ensures that the app continues to evolve, adapting not just to user needs but also to the unpredictable influence of powerful AI tools. The Soundslice saga is a fascinating microcosm of the broader challenges and opportunities presented by advanced AI. It highlights how a seemingly detrimental phenomenon like ChatGPT hallucination can, in an unexpected twist, become a catalyst for genuine AI innovation and drive crucial music app development . For Adrian Holovaty and Soundslice, it was a reputational risk turned into a unique feature, demonstrating unparalleled adaptability in the face of AI misinformation . As AI continues to integrate into every facet of our lives, stories like this serve as vital lessons for entrepreneurs and developers alike: prepare for the unexpected, and be ready to turn AI’s quirks into your next groundbreaking feature. To learn more about the latest AI market trends, explore our article on key developments shaping AI features and institutional adoption.
SEC's Peirce stresses tokenization doesn't change an asset's legal status. Peirce warns of risks without SEC consultation on blockchain innovations. Continue Reading: SEC’s Hester Peirce Cautions Against Legal Oversight in Tokenization The post SEC’s Hester Peirce Cautions Against Legal Oversight in Tokenization appeared first on COINTURK NEWS .
Summary I am downgrading Coinbase to a neutral rating due to the stretched valuation and slowing growth in its subscription business. While subscription and services revenue remains the company's crown jewel, transaction revenues are highly cyclical and face long-term pressure to zero. The recent stock rally appears overdone, as USDC adoption has not grown proportionately and transaction revenue growth is set to decelerate. Despite strong cash reserves and strategic M&A, I see limited upside at current prices and caution against extrapolating recent transaction revenue surges. Coinbase Global ( COIN ) has emerged as a big winner in stablecoins, or at least that is what the stock market action is signaling. The company has continued driving both aggressive top-line growth and profitability, with its valuable subscription business retaining the biggest shine. I caution investors that the transaction revenue business is arguably very cyclical, with this being ever-important given that it still makes up the majority of the overall business. The stock valuation looks stretched after the recent rally, as USDC adoption has not increased proportionately to support that surge. I am downgrading the stock to a neutral rating. COIN Stock Price I last covered COIN in April, where I upgraded the stock to a buy rating due to the strong momentum in the subscription businesses. The stock has more than doubled since then. Data by YCharts It’s always fun to be proven right, but I question how much of this rally is really deserved. COIN Stock Key Metrics COIN is a cryptocurrency brokerage that has become a household name in part due to innovation as well as its resilience through various crypto cycles. The latest quarter saw the company continue to show solid top-line growth, with revenues growing 23% YoY. I note that the company is lapping tougher comparables as it saw 115% YoY growth in the first quarter of 2024. 2025 Q1 Shareholder Letter Those tough comparables are manifesting largely for the transaction revenue business, which grew by just 17.3% YoY. I note that transaction revenues stood at just $375 million in the first quarter of 2023 after peaking at $1 billion in the first quarter of 2022. I expect transaction revenue growth to moderate moving forward and prove rather cyclical, especially as it faces long-term pressures to zero. The subscription and services business saw revenues jump by a stellar 37% YoY in the quarter (albeit at the low end of guidance). I continue to view this to be where most of the value resides for this company, given the long-term secular drivers in the stablecoin business. 2025 Q1 Shareholder Letter The company saw profit margins contract in spite of the aggressive top-line growth in large part due to a significant uplift in sales and marketing expenses. The company has been investing heavily in promoting the USDC stablecoin. That investment makes sense as I view the stablecoin environment to in the "land grab" phase. 2025 Q1 10-Q COIN ended the quarter with $9.9 billion in cash and investments versus $4.2 billion in debt, representing a solid net cash balance sheet. 2025 Q1 Shareholder Letter Looking ahead, management guided for the second quarter to see around $640 million in subscription and services revenue at the midpoint, representing just 6.8% YoY growth. That guidance surprised me, as I expected the company to sustain aggressive growth in this segment for at least several more years. 2025 Q1 Shareholder Letter On the conference call , management discussed how their acquisition of Deribit would further bolster their product offerings through options products. I found the most interesting thing about the acquisition to be the source of funding, which would mainly come from issuing new shares. Management noted that while they had an outstanding share repurchase program, they were instead prioritizing M&A. I view this capital allocation policy to be unusual but in a good way, as this is exactly the right approach to take when the stock is trading at elevated levels. Is COIN Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold? COIN has seen a furious rally largely stemming from the passage of the stablecoin bill in the Senate , which in effect legitimizes the industry. Perhaps investors are hopeful that this momentum can help the company accelerate the projected subscription revenue growth, which, as previously mentioned, is expected to greatly decelerate in the coming quarter. That said, I note that the USDC market cap has not increased meaningfully over the last several months , making the violent rally look rather misplaced. The stock might not look expensive trading at 12x sales. Seeking Alpha The key point to ponder is that over 60% of the overall business is still coming from transaction revenues, which I view to be highly cyclical and thus warranting a lower multiple. The subscription revenue business looks similar to the services business at Apple ( AAPL ), but with growth projected to slow down rapidly, I no longer believe it is worth such an aggressive multiple. Assuming a 10x sales multiple for the subscription business, which looks generous given the 6.8% projected growth rate in the second quarter, we arrive at $25.6 billion in market value. That leaves $65 billion in value for the transaction revenue business, valuing that at around 12x to 13x sales, which is a stunningly aggressive valuation. I find it likely that crypto transaction fees decline eerily close to 0 over the long term, similar to what we have seen in equities trading. Robinhood ( HOOD ) is already offering zero commission fees, and I expect them and others to help bring fees down lower as competition increases for the crypto giant. Based on a 5x sales multiple for the transaction revenue business, I am updating my fair value to a $50 billion market cap, representing a stock price of $202 per share. I note that while I am unconvinced by the current valuation, the recent IPO of Circle ( CRCL ) is clearly a positive for the name and may lead to some near-term momentum in growth rates, similar to what we have seen take place for Reddit’s ( RDDT ) growth rates in social media following their IPO. COIN was the original founder of the USDC stablecoin, but due to desires to help CRCL come public, it has changed its ownership structure to instead be one in which it earns 50% of interest revenues. That agreement is renewable every 3 years for what looks like eternity , and it looks like there isn’t any easy way for CRCL to back out of that agreement. While it is possible that CRCL ends up trying to take this to the courts at some point in the future, this is not a material risk at the moment versus the valuation issue that I am more focused on. COIN Stock Conclusion COIN keeps on surging, and the valuation might not look so expensive to those new to this story. I caution that the surge in transaction revenues over the last couple of years should not be extrapolated over the long term due to rising competition. The subscription and services business is rightfully considered a jewel, but the stock has run too fast and too far. COIN is likely to be a prime beneficiary of increased stablecoin adoption, but for now it is coming at a cost to profitability. I recommend investors to look harder for cheaper alternatives among high-quality growth stocks, as I have done for the Best of Breed Growth Stocks Portfolio . I am downgrading the stock to a neutral rating.