Bitcoin dives to multi-week lows, and as talk of all-time highs vanishes, BTC price targets include a retest of $100,000 and under.
BitcoinWorld HKGAI and FLock.io Partner to Advance Decentralised AI for Government Efficiency Covent Garden, United Kingdom, August 25th, 2025, Chainwire The Hong Kong Generative AI Research and Development Centre (HKGAI), a leading institution driving AI innovation, has officially announced a strategic partnership with FLock.io , an innovator in decentralised AI infrastructure. Together, they aim to revolutionise government and public sector efficiency by developing advanced, domain-specific AI models. Leveraging FLock.io’s cutting-edge, privacy-preserving federated learning technology, the partnership will deliver secure, transparent, and highly efficient AI solutions tailored explicitly for governmental applications.This partnership marks a significant step forward in embracing decentralised AI as the next-generation model for public sector transformation. Both HKGAI and FLock.io will allocate resources towards this initiative. HKGAI will deploy specialised research teams and high-performance GPU clusters, while FLock.io will provide its pioneering decentralised AI training infrastructure. This synergy will facilitate secure multi-institution collaboration without compromising data privacy and security. “This strategic alliance demonstrates powerful support for FLock.io’s unique federated learning protocol by one of Asia’s leading government-backed AI institutions,” added Jiahao Sun, CEO of FLock.io. “We’re excited to introduce decentralised AI infrastructure into public sector operations, driving efficiency, innovation, and real-world impact.” FLock.io’s approach allows institutions holding sensitive and isolated data to collaboratively train powerful AI models securely and compliantly—a vital capability as governments increasingly prioritise responsible AI use. The partnership highlights the Hong Kong government’s proactive commitment to pioneering decentralised AI solutions to enhance governance and public services. Both HKGAI and FLock.io continue exploring further integration opportunities and joint infrastructure initiatives, aiming to expand the reach and effectiveness of these groundbreaking models across broader governmental networks. About HKGAI: The Hong Kong Generative AI Research and Development Centre (HKGAI) was established in October 2023 under the Hong Kong government’s InnoHK initiative as the city’s flagship for generative AI innovation. Led by the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST), HKGAI collaborates with renowned local and international institutions to develop foundational AI models and transformative applications, shaping the future of society. In February 2025, HKGAI introduced its inaugural large-scale generative AI model, HKGAI V1, marking a significant milestone in Hong Kong’s growing AI ecosystem. About FLock.io: FLock.io is a pioneering decentralised AI training platform combining Federated Learning and blockchain technology, fundamentally transforming AI development. Its secure, privacy-centric platform empowers communities to collaboratively build, train, and own AI models without centralising data. FLock.io’s ecosystem comprises three key components: AI Arena, a competitive AI model training platform; FL Alliance, a privacy-preserving collaborative framework safeguarding data sovereignty; and Moonbase, a decentralised AI model hosting and refinement platform that rewards contributors and supports ecosystem growth. Not Your Models, Not Your AI. Users can learn more at FLock.io . Contact FLock FLock.io LTD hello@flock.io This post HKGAI and FLock.io Partner to Advance Decentralised AI for Government Efficiency first appeared on BitcoinWorld and is written by chainwire
Stay Ahead with Our Immediate Analysis of Today’s Dogecoin Updates Check out our Live Dogecoin Updates for August 25, 2025! In 2025, Dogecoin stands shoulder-to-shoulder next to Bitcoin. One is the first cryptocurrency, while our doggo friend is widely recognized as the first meme coin. Launched in 2013, $DOGE is up by over 38,000% today, looking at a price of over $0.21 and a trading volume in the billions of dollars. If anything, Dogecoin proves that ‘anything is possible’ in crypto, and even underdogs can become industry giants. With endorsements from industry moguls like Elon Musk and official investment vehicles like the Grayscale Dogecoin Trust, $DOGE seems to be going nowhere but up. Click to learn more about Maxi Doge Maxi Doge ($MAXI) is Dogecoin’s bodybuilder cousin chugging Red Bull and scalping cryptos at 3AM in the morning. Embodying full-send chaos and pump potential 2.0, $MAXI is for degen traders who don’t hesitate and keep diamond hands on some of the riskiest plays. While meme coins are a dime a dozen, Maxi Doge is max-commitment, max cojones, and aiming for legend status in the memecoin land. Simply put, if rat poison squared took form, it would probably look like Maxi Doge. And this meme coin is still in presale. If you’re looking for the newest insights on Dogecoin and doge-related projects and meme coins, you’re in the right place. We update this page frequently throughout the day, as we get the latest and greatest insider insights for Doge lovers and memecoin enthusiasts, so keep refreshing! Disclaimer: Crypto is a high-risk investment, and you may lose your capital. Our content is informational only, and it does not constitute financial advice. We may earn affiliate commissions at no extra cost to you. Today’s Dogecoin Technical Analysis Dogecoin, like most major cryptos, reacted positively to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Friday speech, which sparked fresh optimism in the market after he hinted at a potential September rate cut. $DOGE rallied nearly 12% on the day, bouncing right off a critical technical level – the 50% Fibonacci retracement on the weekly chart. This confluence shows how Dogecoin’s technical strength is starting to align with the broader bullish sentiment in crypto, creating the perfect recipe for the top meme coin to push higher. Adding to the optimism, the 10, 20, and 50 EMAs on the weekly chart are fanning out while staying stacked in bullish order, hinting that the next leg up may be just around the corner. That said, confirmation will depend on the current weekly candle closing above the 20 EMA at the very least. If it fails to do so, $DOGE may face another 10-14 days of sideways or bearish action before attempting another breakout. From Meme to Mechanism: Dogecoin’s Shift and Maxi Doge’s Ascent August 25, 2025 • 10:00 UTC Dogecoin’s proposed pivot to a hybrid proof-of-stake (PoS) model via Project Sakura signals a major shift from mere meme coin to scalable payment infrastructure. With projected 1,000x throughput and reduced attack risks, the idea has institutional interest in Dogecoin surging, backed by $500M in treasury inflows and live testing on Dogebox. Cue Maxi Doge ($MAXI) , a fit-for-purpose Doge-themed ERC-20 token built using Ethereum’s energy-efficient PoS model. Its presale has raised $1.53M, with tokens priced at a low $0.000254, offering a low-cap, faster alternative for investors seeking upside without legacy PoW baggage. As Dogecoin evolves, Maxi Doge is steps ahead with a flexible protocol already aligned with future energy-efficient consensus models. Find out how to buy Maxi Doge. As Dogecoin Pumps 11% in August, $MAXI Presale Crosses $1.5M August 25, 2025 • 10:00 UTC In a bullish turn for the meme coin market, whale accumulation has driven Dogecoin’s price up by 10–11% in August, signaling renewed investor confidence. As Dogecoin inches closer to the $0.25 breakout zone, traders are eyeing the next high-leverage opportunity, and Maxi Doge is stealing the spotlight. Maxi Doge is designed for ultra-high-risk, high-reward trading: no stop loss, no exit plan, just full send. With over $1.52M already raised, $MAXI is priced at just $0.000254; but the countdown is on, with just two days left before the next price hike. Maxi Doge offers zero-tax trading, current staking rewards of 199%, and gamified trading tournaments, making it the ultimate meme coin for degens chasing rapid gains. Alt: How to buy $MAXI. Buy Maxi Doge now before the presale window closes.
Stay Ahead with Our Immediate Analysis of Today’s Bitcoin & Bitcoin Hyper Insights Check out our Live Bitcoin Hyper Updates for August 25, 2025! In 2010, Bitcoin was worth a few cents. One year later, it hit $20. In six years, it was $17,000, and now it’s sitting at over $100K, after hitting an ATH of $123K in July. Historically, if you’d invested in Bitcoin at launch, you’d have an ROI of 188,643,000%. The likes of Mastercard, JP Morgan, and scores of S&P 500 companies are buying Bitcoin in droves. There’s never been anything like Bitcoin before, and investors are waking up to that reality. However, Bitcoin is getting old for modern standards. No dApps, no smart contracts, and almost non-existent DeFi scalability. It needs an upgrade. And that’s what Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) is here to do with Layer-2 technology. Click to learn more about Bitcoin Hyper Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) is a crypto project planning to launch the fastest Layer-2 chain for Bitcoin. Its goal – to bring Bitcoin’s blockchain to modern standards. This means compatibility with dApps, smart contracts, and seamless DeFi programmability for developers. The L2 will run on a Canonical Bridge, combined with the Solana Virtual Machine (SVM), for native compatibility with Solana. You’ll be able to build token programs, LP logic, oracles, games, NFT infrastructure, DAOs, and much more. All without reinventing the wheel. To engage with the L2, you’ll deposit $BTC to a designated address monitored by the Canonical Bridge. The Relay Program verifies the details, and then mints an equivalent number of wrapped $BTC on the L2. You can also withdraw your original $BTC at any time. If you’re looking for the newest insights on Bitcoin and Bitcoin Hyper, you’re in the right place. We update this page regularly throughout the day with the latest insider insights for Bitcoin maxis and Bitcoin Hyper fans. Keep refreshing to stay ahead of the pack! Disclaimer: No crypto investment comes without risk. Our content is for informational purposes, not financial advice. We may earn affiliate commissions at no extra cost to you. HOW TO BUY $HYPER Today’s Bitcoin Technical Analysis Even though Bitcoin surged nearly 4% after Powell’s encouraging speech last Friday, where he hinted at a possible September rate cut, the token has since lost all of those gains (and then some), continuing its short-term bearish trend. That said, Bitcoin is now testing support at the 100 EMA, which has prompted investors to start ‘buying the dip.’ Why? Because the last time $BTC touched the 100 EMA – on June 22 – it went on to rally more than 25% in just a couple of weeks, hitting fresh all-time highs. Even better, the current price level also aligns with a major support area for Bitcoin. The last time $BTC traded in this region, it rallied over 11%. And a similar move this time around could once again propel Bitcoin into uncharted territory, aka new ATHs. Strategy’s Michael Saylor Eyes More Bitcoin in August, Hyping Up Bitcoin Hyper’s $12M Presale August 25, 2025 • 10:00 UTC Michael Saylor hinted at a new Bitcoin purchase in a suggestive X post , with the simple message of ‘Bitcoin is on sale.’ Strategy already bought Bitcoin twice this August , for a total investment of $69M, bringing its reserves at 629,376 $BTC, worth over $73B. A third purchase would send a strong buy signal, rallying the market and pushing Bitcoin Hyper to even higher numbers. Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) is Bitcoin’s Layer 2 upgrade that promises faster and cheaper Bitcoin transactions with the help of tools like the Canonical Bridge. The presale is getting ready to break $12M. You can learn how to buy $HYPER right here. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee: Bull Cycle Just Getting Started as Bitcoin Hyper Presale Nears $12M August 25, 2025 • 10:00 UTC Tom Lee believes that the bull cycle hasn’t even started yet in 2025. He bases his assessment on data showing that 82% of people hold no cryptos in 2025. Only 12% of people have declared to own Bitcoin, in free-fall since 2023’s 53%. This shows that, on the one hand, the interest for Bitcoin has shifted from retail to institutional. On the other hand, people haven’t started buying yet, which means we haven’t entered the bull zone yet. When that happens, Bitcoin will start pushing again, with projects like Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) breaking through another presale milestone. $HYPER’s presale is now nearing the $12M mark, following a surge in investor interest over the past two months. Learn more about what Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) is right here.
Fund managers are pivoting to leveraged meme coins and active strategies as an October approval timeline nears.
Covent Garden, United Kingdom, August 25th, 2025, Chainwire The Hong Kong Generative AI Research and Development Centre (HKGAI), a leading institution driving AI innovation, has officially announced a strategic partnership with FLock.io , an innovator in decentralised AI infrastructure. Together, they aim to revolutionise government and public sector efficiency by developing advanced, domain-specific AI models. Leveraging FLock.io’s cutting-edge, privacy-preserving federated learning technology, the partnership will deliver secure, transparent, and highly efficient AI solutions tailored explicitly for governmental applications.This partnership marks a significant step forward in embracing decentralised AI as the next-generation model for public sector transformation. Both HKGAI and FLock.io will allocate resources towards this initiative. HKGAI will deploy specialised research teams and high-performance GPU clusters, while FLock.io will provide its pioneering decentralised AI training infrastructure. This synergy will facilitate secure multi-institution collaboration without compromising data privacy and security. “This strategic alliance demonstrates powerful support for FLock.io’s unique federated learning protocol by one of Asia’s leading government-backed AI institutions,” added Jiahao Sun, CEO of FLock.io. “We’re excited to introduce decentralised AI infrastructure into public sector operations, driving efficiency, innovation, and real-world impact.” FLock.io’s approach allows institutions holding sensitive and isolated data to collaboratively train powerful AI models securely and compliantly—a vital capability as governments increasingly prioritise responsible AI use. The partnership highlights the Hong Kong government’s proactive commitment to pioneering decentralised AI solutions to enhance governance and public services. Both HKGAI and FLock.io continue exploring further integration opportunities and joint infrastructure initiatives, aiming to expand the reach and effectiveness of these groundbreaking models across broader governmental networks. About HKGAI: The Hong Kong Generative AI Research and Development Centre (HKGAI) was established in October 2023 under the Hong Kong government’s InnoHK initiative as the city's flagship for generative AI innovation. Led by the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST), HKGAI collaborates with renowned local and international institutions to develop foundational AI models and transformative applications, shaping the future of society. In February 2025, HKGAI introduced its inaugural large-scale generative AI model, HKGAI V1, marking a significant milestone in Hong Kong’s growing AI ecosystem. About FLock.io: FLock.io is a pioneering decentralised AI training platform combining Federated Learning and blockchain technology, fundamentally transforming AI development. Its secure, privacy-centric platform empowers communities to collaboratively build, train, and own AI models without centralising data. FLock.io’s ecosystem comprises three key components: AI Arena, a competitive AI model training platform; FL Alliance, a privacy-preserving collaborative framework safeguarding data sovereignty; and Moonbase, a decentralised AI model hosting and refinement platform that rewards contributors and supports ecosystem growth. Not Your Models, Not Your AI. Users can learn more at FLock.io . ContactFLockFLock.io LTDhello@flock.io Disclaimer: This is a sponsored press release and is for informational purposes only. It does not reflect the views of Bitzo, nor is it intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, or financial advice.
Covent Garden, United Kingdom, August 25th, 2025, Chainwire The Hong Kong Generative AI Research and Development Centre (HKGAI), a leading institution driving AI innovation, has officially announced a strategic partnership with FLock.io , an innovator in decentralised AI infrastructure. Together, they aim to revolutionise government and public sector efficiency by developing advanced, domain-specific AI models. Leveraging FLock.io’s cutting-edge, privacy-preserving federated learning technology, the partnership will deliver secure, transparent, and highly efficient AI solutions tailored explicitly for governmental applications.This partnership marks a significant step forward in embracing decentralised AI as the next-generation model for public sector transformation. Both HKGAI and FLock.io will allocate resources towards this initiative. HKGAI will deploy specialised research teams and high-performance GPU clusters, while FLock.io will provide its pioneering decentralised AI training infrastructure. This synergy will facilitate secure multi-institution collaboration without compromising data privacy and security. “This strategic alliance demonstrates powerful support for FLock.io’s unique federated learning protocol by one of Asia’s leading government-backed AI institutions,” added Jiahao Sun, CEO of FLock.io. “We’re excited to introduce decentralised AI infrastructure into public sector operations, driving efficiency, innovation, and real-world impact.” FLock.io’s approach allows institutions holding sensitive and isolated data to collaboratively train powerful AI models securely and compliantly—a vital capability as governments increasingly prioritise responsible AI use. The partnership highlights the Hong Kong government’s proactive commitment to pioneering decentralised AI solutions to enhance governance and public services. Both HKGAI and FLock.io continue exploring further integration opportunities and joint infrastructure initiatives, aiming to expand the reach and effectiveness of these groundbreaking models across broader governmental networks. About HKGAI: The Hong Kong Generative AI Research and Development Centre (HKGAI) was established in October 2023 under the Hong Kong government’s InnoHK initiative as the city's flagship for generative AI innovation. Led by the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST), HKGAI collaborates with renowned local and international institutions to develop foundational AI models and transformative applications, shaping the future of society. In February 2025, HKGAI introduced its inaugural large-scale generative AI model, HKGAI V1, marking a significant milestone in Hong Kong’s growing AI ecosystem. About FLock.io: FLock.io is a pioneering decentralised AI training platform combining Federated Learning and blockchain technology, fundamentally transforming AI development. Its secure, privacy-centric platform empowers communities to collaboratively build, train, and own AI models without centralising data. FLock.io’s ecosystem comprises three key components: AI Arena, a competitive AI model training platform; FL Alliance, a privacy-preserving collaborative framework safeguarding data sovereignty; and Moonbase, a decentralised AI model hosting and refinement platform that rewards contributors and supports ecosystem growth. Not Your Models, Not Your AI. Users can learn more at FLock.io . ContactFLockFLock.io LTDhello@flock.io Disclaimer: This is a sponsored press release and is for informational purposes only. It does not reflect the views of Crypto Daily, nor is it intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, or financial advice.
Summary I am downgrading IBIT from strong buy to hold as Bitcoin's major tailwinds are now fully priced in after a 600% surge from the bottom in 2022. Rising leverage and debt-driven corporate buying introduce fragility, making the ecosystem vulnerable to cascading liquidations if prices slip. Quantum computing poses a real, near-term threat to Bitcoin's security, with protocol upgrades likely to be logistically and technically challenging. At $114k, remaining upside is limited and risks are underappreciated; I'd rather forgo more gains than risk a sharp drawdown at these levels. Co-Authored by Noah Cox and Brock Heilig Investment Thesis I am lowering my rating on iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF ( IBIT ) from a strong buy to a hold. A big reason for this double downgrade is because of the fact that Bitcoin’s price has already surged roughly 600% from its cycle low of ~$16k to about $114k, which validated much of my earlier bull case. It’s clear to me that most tailwinds I previously identified - rapid money supply expansion, favorable U.S. policy, and growing institutional adoption - have materialized and now appear fully baked into Bitcoin’s valuation. In my last article , I projected a price target of $148k for Bitcoin, assuming another 50-100% upside. At $114k, I believe those catalysts have largely run their course (while not pushing the price of the world’s largest cryptocurrency to the level I had hoped for). I’ve also noticed that global liquidity conditions, which once propelled Bitcoin, are beginning to shift (Bitcoin’s price is no longer tracking as closely with the increase in the M2 money supply). On top of this, there appears to be growing leverage within the Bitcoin ecosystem, especially debt-driven corporate purchases, which I believe introduces fragility for Bitcoin. Bitcoin has been in a 4 year boom-bust cycle basically since its inception. My fear is that we are at the peak of this cycle. Normally, the adage for Bitcoin would be to hold till the next bull run. My fear is that this might be the last bull run. Technological threats like quantum computing were not central to my prior thesis, but they now cast a really longer-term shadow over Bitcoin’s core security. When we take into account all of these factors, it means that at $114k per Bitcoin, investors face significant downside if conditions deteriorate. With this, shares are double downgraded from a strong buy to a hold. Why I’m Doing Follow-Up Coverage The biggest reason for my follow-up coverage of IBIT is because of what I think are red flags that have risen since the last time I wrote on the Bitcoin ETF. The market has shifted from predominantly spot-driven accumulation to heavy debt-funded buying from treasury companies, which changes the risk profile. On-chain data also suggests that a price slip could trigger cascading liquidations, unlike the earlier, more organic demand phase. Another red flag I’ve seen come about is that companies are betting the balance sheet. Public firms like GameStop, MicroStrategy, Bit Digital, and Block have increasingly financed Bitcoin purchases via debt. For example, GameStop’s $1.3 billion convertible bond issuance in March was a big sign of euphoria, prompting a 25% drop in the company’s stock once risks became clear. My previous article was contingent on the thesis that there were assumed strategic, unlevered Treasury allocations, not this level of corporate speculation. The shift from organic to leveraged demand means the easy money from holding Bitcoin (and by extension IBIT) has been made and that further gains would come on borrowed capital and potentially borrowed time. Leveraged Risk One of the best-case studies in Bitcoin’s risk is MicroStrategy. The company holds over 600,000 Bitcoin - which is nearly 3% of the total supply. This Bitcoin is financed by roughly tranches of convertible bonds and preferred shares that now pay cash dividends . I wrote about this with Strategy ( MSTR ) but this does not feel sustainable. This financing has set MicroStrategy up with more than $8 billion in debt and interest obligations that hinge on Bitcoin’s price remaining elevated. While shareholders enjoyed ~167% stock gains as Bitcoin rose, a downturn could really hurt the company and trigger a forced sell-off, risking broader market contagion. It’s true that none of the Bitcoin that Strategy in particular is secured to debt, but at the end of the day, if any of their obligations default (such as a convertible bond or preferred stock preferred dividends), that could become a cascading issue. Marathon Digital ( MARA ) is a different story. Marathon and other miners took high-interest loans secured by Bitcoin or mining rigs to expand operations. Because of this, a meaningful Bitcoin decline could lead to distressed collateral sales. In bull markets, leverage acts like rocket fuel. In bear markets, it becomes gasoline on a fire. Quantum Hacking Problems Quantum hacking is starting to become a huge threat to Bitcoin’s cryptography. Bitcoin relies on the ECDSA (elliptic curve digital signature) algorithm, which conventional computers cannot break (requiring ~ 2^128 operations ). However, a powerful quantum computer running Shor’s algorithm could solve this in polynomial time (exponentially less time than a classical computer). This means they can derive private keys from public keys within minutes. Once a Bitcoin address’ public key is revealed, I believe a quantum owned by an attacker will compute the private key and steal funds. This would be devastating for the cryptocurrency. My concern looks like it will be real. There have been recent warnings that quantum computing breakthroughs may arrive sooner rather than later. In May, Dr. Elena Orlova (researcher at Google) suggested error-corrected qubits capable of breaking ECDSA could appear some time between 2027 and 2030 - years earlier than prior forecasts. The implication is that the Bitcoin ecosystem may need to transition to quantum-resistant algorithms within the next 5-7 years, not decades. This would also show up just as Bitcoin starts its next bull run cycle. This could kill the next bull run. With no new bull run, there is really no long-term reason to own Bitcoin. Even if we don’t talk about quantum brute force hacking the whole blockchain, core legacy Bitcoin wallets are often vulnerable. Estimates suggest that over 60% of Bitcoin resides in vulnerable addresses from legacy addresses. When quantum computers reach critical capability, attackers could (and will) empty wallets using pure mathematics, undermining trust in the network. These wallets will have to be upgraded. This is the core problem. Defending against these quantum attacks requires a fundamental protocol upgrade. Really, this will be a logistical nightmare (coordinating updates across miners, exchanges, wallets, etc.) There are also technical trade-offs, a timing dilemma, or really (because let's face it) hard fork implications. Think about Satoshi Nakamoto’s wallet. Even the mysterious founder’s wallet is exposed since it used the older “ pay-to-pubkey ” architecture that exposed the wallet's public key during transactions. This could be one of the biggest forks in the history of Bitcoin. I really don’t think this will go well. Some proposals indicate that there is a huge chunk of the blockchain that will have to be essentially frozen so that quantum computers don’t hack these wallets and dump this Bitcoin on the open market. Valuation I believe Bitcoin's recent range of $112k to $124k in recent weeks represents euphoria, which is roughly 7-8x above the bear-market low of $16k. At $114k, Bitcoin’s market cap is about $2.4 trillion . It's one of the top 10 largest assets on the planet. Historical cycles show post-peak drawdowns of 70-80%. Treasury companies could be the catalyst that kicks off that downside. Bitcoin’s price is closely tied to the global M2 money supply. While M2 surged through 2024 and 2025, forecasts project a global liquidity peak by mid-2026 . As of today, in mid-2025, I think the easiest liquidity-driven gains are behind us. Any pivot toward liquidity tightening will be bad news for Bitcoin. I also think cycle timing will play a big factor here. Each halving is a known catalyst to drive Bitcoin's price upward. Historically, peaks occur about 12-18 months post-halving. As of the time of this writing, we are about 16 months past the halving. Without a fresh fundamental catalyst, the odds favor a plateau or a pullback. As I mentioned earlier in this article, my former Bitcoin price projection was $148k. However, at this point, a run from ~$114k to $148k (~29.8% further upside) would require either a liquidity surge or a new narrative drawing sidelined capital. With this, I view ~$124k as a de facto ceiling for Bitcoin in this cycle, barring any major developments. Since I am a hold, I don’t know what the fair value of Bitcoin is at this point. I don’t think the remaining upside potential is worth it. Bull Thesis A quick note on the Bitcoin community’s main counter point. Bitcoin enthusiasts all the way up to Strategy’s own Michael Saylor state that the core financial system will be faced with these same quantum threats. Their core logic is the following: Legacy finance will face the same quantum threats we will…. …so why are we singled out? The key difference between Bitcoin and legacy finance: legacy finance is regulated and centralized, which makes upgrades to cryptography related to quantum easier. Already key cybersecurity agencies like NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) have identified Post Quantum Algorithms for widespread usage to upgrade legacy IT networks in banking, Web 2 internet, etc. On top of this, many post quantum encryption methods are more bandwidth intensive to encrypt each packet of data. Some estimates indicate that this could mean up to 10x more bandwidth is needed. In a centralized network, this is manageable (but costly). On the Bitcoin side? Decentralized and unregulated. You can’t force anyone to comply with quantum upgrades. On top of this, each node in the Bitcoin network will need to upgrade its hardware to handle post-quantum bandwidth needs. That’s a big ask. I don’t know if the blockchain will survive. Takeaway While Bitcoin has had an incredible run, I am double downgrading my stance on IBIT from a strong buy to a hold. I believe that the easy gains have been booked, and the balance of factors is now really net neutral (or even cautious). At $114k per Bitcoin, chasing the rally from here is risky. Much of the bull case is already baked in, and I think rising risks are underappreciated. Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals remain intact only if they can figure out how to perfect encryption against quantum. Perfect timing of a cycle top is nearly impossible. There is a chance Bitcoin could spike to $130k before reversing course yet again. This hold rating means I’m not trying to time the top, but I am recognizing the fact that the number of risks is growing. In the end, at these levels, I’d rather forgo some upside than risk getting caught in a sudden drop.