The chief investment officer (CIO) of crypto asset management firm Bitwise, Matt Hougan, is saying the four-year cycle, which has traditionally influenced the boom and bust cycles of Bitcoin ( BTC ) and the rest of the crypto market, is “dead.” Hougan says the “forces that have created prior four-year cycles are weaker” currently and this includes the Bitcoin halving. According to Hougan, the impact and importance of the Bitcoin halving falls by half every four years. Additionally, Hougan says there exists a friendlier regulatory environment and institutional investors have embraced Bitcoin and other crypto assets. Per Hougan, these “bigger forces” don’t synchronize with the four-year cycle. “i) The movement of assets into [exchange-traded funds] ETFs is a 5 – 10 year trend. It started in 2024; ii) Broader institutional adoption is just getting started (ETFs still being approved on national account platforms, pensions and endowments just now considering crypto, etc.) iii) Regulatory progress began in earnest in January 2025 and will run for multiple years; iv) Wall Street is just now starting to build on crypto, and will invest billions in the quarters and years to come. This started in earnest with the passage of the GENIUS Act this month.” As a result, the Bitwise CIO says these emerging forces will be more influential in determining the future of Bitcoin and other crypto assets than the four-year cycle going forward. “All this suggests to me that the long-term pro-crypto forces will overwhelm the classic “four-year cycle” forces, to the extent those exist, and that 2026 will be a good year.” Follow us on X , Facebook and Telegram Don't Miss a Beat – Subscribe to get email alerts delivered directly to your inbox Check Price Action Surf The Daily Hodl Mix Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing. Generated Image: Midjourney The post Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan Says Four-Year Cycle Is Dead, Predicts 2026 Will Be a Good Year for Bitcoin and Crypto – Here’s Why appeared first on The Daily Hodl .
With global M2 money supply climbing to an all-time high of $95 trillion to $96 trillion, bitcoin—trading between $117,800 and $118,102 in the past 24 hours—looks set to capture serious upside in 2025 as liquidity floods into assets. M2 Money Boom: Why Bitcoin Prices May Soar Amid Liquidity Flood Plenty of crypto fans are banking
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Bitcoin delivers a classic liquidity grab with a correction below $115,000 only to bounce back, while traders eye a BTC price showdown with new all-time highs next.
Bitwise investment director Matt Hougan concluded that four-year cycles are no longer relevant for Bitcoin. The forces that shaped these cycles have weakened in the new environment. The expert drew attention to the following changes: Halvings, which led to ”demand shocks,” have been replaced by steady, incremental purchases of cryptocurrency by institutions and corporations. The risk of collapse has been reduced by improved regulation and the institutionalization of the industry. The new trend for the next 5–10 years is the influx of funds into BTC ETFs. Traditional financial institutions are only just beginning to participate. Legislative support, such as the recent passage of the GENIUS Act, is helping bring Wall Street players who will invest “billions in the coming years” in cryptocurrency, Hougan said. He added that, in the context of macroeconomics, the correlation with changes in Fed interest rates has become positive, not negative as it was in 2018 and 2022. “All of this suggests that long-term cryptocurrency forces will overwhelm the classic ‘quadruple cycle’ factors, if there is such a thing. 2026 will be a good year. I could be wrong, but we’ll see significant volatility. And I think it’s more of a ‘stable, stable boom’ than a supercycle,” Hougan said. However, he identified one “significant risk” to watch: a boom in the formation of corporate Bitcoin treasuries. The day before, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju admitted that the theory of the first cryptocurrency cycles no longer works. The analyst apologized for his previous erroneous forecasts.
Bitwise investment director Matt Hougan concluded that four-year cycles are no longer relevant for Bitcoin. The forces that shaped these cycles have weakened in the new environment. The expert drew attention to the following changes: Halvings, which led to ”demand shocks,” have been replaced by steady, incremental purchases of cryptocurrency by institutions and corporations. The risk of collapse has been reduced by improved regulation and the institutionalization of the industry. The new trend for the next 5–10 years is the influx of funds into BTC ETFs. Traditional financial institutions are only just beginning to participate. Legislative support, such as the recent passage of the GENIUS Act, is helping bring Wall Street players who will invest “billions in the coming years” in cryptocurrency, Hougan said. He added that, in the context of macroeconomics, the correlation with changes in Fed interest rates has become positive, not negative as it was in 2018 and 2022. “All of this suggests that long-term cryptocurrency forces will overwhelm the classic ‘quadruple cycle’ factors, if there is such a thing. 2026 will be a good year. I could be wrong, but we’ll see significant volatility. And I think it’s more of a ‘stable, stable boom’ than a supercycle,” Hougan said. However, he identified one “significant risk” to watch: a boom in the formation of corporate Bitcoin treasuries. The day before, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju admitted that the theory of the first cryptocurrency cycles no longer works. The analyst apologized for his previous erroneous forecasts.
As July hurtles toward its end, crypto traders are scrambling to position themselves before the next leg of the 2025 bull run, and one name is turning serious heads, Mutuum Finance (MUTM). Mutuum Finance has successfully sold out its Phase 5 presale. The project has now entered Phase 6, with the token priced at $0.035,…
A young and tech-savvy population, combating inflationary pressures, is driving Bitcoin adoption and a new financial system in Pakistan.
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The post Crypto Regulations in the USA 2025 appeared first on Coinpedia Fintech News The US crypto regulation has changed dramatically in 2025, with the Trump administration adopting a pro-innovation, pro-crypto approach. Major developments included new executive orders, the disbanding of enforcement teams, and a shift toward clear, comprehensive legislation. The year saw a move away from “regulation by enforcement” toward structured rules and federal clarity, while states continued to play a key role in shaping the regulatory environment. Table of contents US Crypto Regulations 2025 What Do The US Federal Agencies Think About Crypto in 2025? US Crypto Tax 2025 Short-Term Crypto Tax Rates (Held ≤ 1 Year) Long-Term Crypto Tax Rates (Held > 1 Year) Additional Crypto Tax Rules Example Crypto Adoption Rate In America Crypto mining in the USA US Government’s Crypto Holdings Conclusion FAQs US Crypto Regulations 2025 July 18, 2025 – President Trump signed the new legislation of the GENIUS Act into law. It creates licensing and regulatory requirements for stablecoin issuers. It also provides requirements for the custody and safekeeping of certain payment stablecoin-related assets. July 17, 2025- The House also adopted the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act by a 294-134 margin and the CBDC Anti-Surveillance State Act, July 3, 2025- The US House Committee looks forward to considering the CLARITY Act and the San GENIUS Act in the crypto week , which is scheduled in the week of July 14. June 17, 2025: The US Senate passed the GENIUS ACT with 68-30 votes, the first federal regulatory framework for stablecoins. May 8, 2025 – Wyoming and Texas push forward new pro-crypto laws; other states test blockchain in public services and launch regulatory sandboxes. Early May 2025 – U.S. repeals Executive Order 14067 and outdated Treasury crypto policies; SEC unveils new framework for digital asset securities; GENIUS stablecoin bill nears finalization; OCC releases Interpretive Letter 1183 allowing banks to custody digital assets. April 12, 2025 – Senate Banking Committee announces plans to pass a comprehensive crypto market bill by August; Securities Clarity Act reintroduced in the House . April 2025 – Congress accelerates deregulatory efforts and develops laws to clarify digital asset regulation under the Trump administration. March 12, 2025 – White House publicly supports stablecoins and cryptocurrencies, signaling regulatory easing and push for adoption. March 6, 2025 – President Trump signs Executive Order to create the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile . April 2025 – DOJ’s National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team is disbanded ; SEC drops major lawsuits against Gemini and Coinbase. Early February 2025 – Federal Stablecoins Bill advances, with bipartisan support and a clear 2025 regulatory roadmap. January 23, 2025 – President Trump issues Executive Order “ Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology ,” promoting fair banking access and crypto innovation. What Do The US Federal Agencies Think About Crypto in 2025? SEC: The SEC, under new leadership, is moving away from aggressive enforcement and toward developing clear regulatory lines, realistic registration paths, and sensible disclosure guidelines for crypto assets. CFTC: The CFTC is collaborating with the SEC and Congress to clarify jurisdiction, especially over digital commodities and derivatives. FinCEN: AML and CFT requirements remain central, with crypto companies classified as financial institutions under the Bank Secrecy Act, subject to strict compliance. FDIC/OCC: The FDIC has eased restrictions on banks’ crypto activities, while the OCC supports banks’ ability to custody digital assets US Crypto Tax 2025 Cryptocurrency in the US is taxed based on how long you hold the asset and your total taxable income. Short-term gains (assets held for one year or less) are taxed at ordinary income rates, while long-term gains (assets held for more than a year) are taxed at lower capital gains rates. Additionally, income from mining, staking, or receiving crypto as payment is taxed as ordinary income. Short-Term Crypto Tax Rates (Held ≤ 1 Year) Tax Rate Single Married Filing Jointly Married Filing Separately Head of Household 10% $0–$11,600 $0–$23,200 $0–$11,600 $0–$16,550 12% $11,601–$47,150 $23,201–$94,300 $11,601–$47,150 $16,551–$63,100 22% $47,151–$100,525 $94,301–$201,050 $47,151–$100,525 $63,101–$100,500 24% $100,526–$191,950 $201,051–$383,900 $100,526–$191,950 $100,501–$191,950 32% $191,951–$243,725 $383,901–$487,450 $191,951–$243,725 $191,951–$243,700 37% Over $609,351 Over $731,201 Over $365,601 Over $609,351 Long-Term Crypto Tax Rates (Held > 1 Year) Tax Rate Single Married Filing Jointly Married Filing Separately Head of Household 0% Up to $47,025 Up to $94,050 Up to $47,025 Up to $63,000 15% $47,026–$518,900 $94,051–$583,750 $47,026–$291,850 $63,001–$551,350 20% Over $518,900 Over $583,750 Over $291,850 Over $551,350 Additional Crypto Tax Rules Income from mining, staking, or payment: Taxed as ordinary income at the above rates. NFTs: Some may be taxed at a higher collectibles rate (up to 28%). Non-taxable events: Transfers between your own wallets and certain gifts are not taxable. Crypto companies: Subject to standard corporate income tax and must comply with reporting and AML/CFT rules. Example If you are single, earn $50,000 in total taxable income, and realize $5,000 short-term crypto gains and $10,000 long-term crypto gains: Short-term gains taxed at 22%: $1,100 Long-term gains taxed at 15%: $1,500 Total crypto tax owed: $2,600 These rates and rules ensure all crypto investors and companies are taxed in line with other property and investment assets in the US Crypto Adoption Rate In America In 2025, about 28% of American adults—around 65 million people—own cryptocurrency. Crypto ownership in the US has nearly doubled since 2021, rising from 15% to 28%. 14% of non-owners plan to buy crypto in 2025, and 67% of current owners plan to buy more this year. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin are the top three cryptocurrencies Americans plan to purchase in 2025. Crypto mining in the USA In 2025, the US leads the world in Bitcoin mining , accounting for over one-third of global mining power. On March 20, 2025, the SEC clarified that proof-of-work crypto mining is not subject to federal securities laws, removing registration requirements for miners. There is no federal ban on crypto mining; regulation is handled at the state level, with some states offering incentives and others imposing environmental restrictions. The Trump administration’s deregulatory approach in 2025 has encouraged domestic mining growth, but all miners must still comply with federal AML and CFT rules. Environmental concerns and energy usage debates continue, especially in states considering stricter oversight or moratoriums on mining operations. US Government’s Crypto Holdings As of April 2025, the US government holds approximately 198,012 Bitcoins, valued at about $18.3 billion. The US is the world’s largest state holder of Bitcoin, with these assets primarily acquired through law enforcement seizures and forfeitures. In March 2025, President Trump established the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a broader Digital Asset Stockpile, consolidating all federally held Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies (including Ethereum, Solana, Cardano, and XRP) as permanent reserve assets. Conclusion US crypto regulation in 2025 marks a major turning point. The old approach of punishing innovation is being replaced with clear rules, legal support, and a national strategy for digital assets. 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The SEC regulates crypto assets that are considered securities. In 2025, the SEC is moving towards clearer regulatory guidelines. What are the IRS rules for crypto? The IRS treats crypto as property, taxing gains as capital gains and income from mining/staking as ordinary income. What is the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve? Established by Trump in March 2025, it’s a federal reserve for Bitcoin, initially capitalized by seized BTC, aiming to manage holdings strategically. How has US crypto regulation changed in 2025? In 2025, the US shifted to a pro-innovation, pro-crypto approach under Trump, with new executive orders and a move toward clear federal legislation. How much tax on crypto USA? In the US, short-term crypto gains (held ≤ 1 year) are taxed at ordinary income rates (10-37%), while long-term gains (> 1 year) are taxed at lower capital gains rates (0-20%), based on your income and filing status. Sources