Summary The idea of a US Bitcoin National Reserve gained traction after Trump's July 2024 proposal and November 2024 election victory, but its implementation remains unlikely. Trump's pro-Bitcoin stance appears more like electioneering than a well-thought-out policy, conflicting with his pledge to maintain the USD reserve currency status. Establishing a Bitcoin reserve would face significant funding challenges and skepticism from mainstream financial institutions and Congress. Despite occasional bullishness, I remain cautious about Bitcoin's hype and wary of being bullish due to the speculative nature of the reserve idea. The idea of the US establishing a strategic national reserve of Bitcoin has recently attracted a lot of media attention. In this article, I will discuss my views on how this might impact Bitcoin's price. Before I begin the discussion, for readers that have not read my commentary on crypto before, I would like to showcase my crypto "credentials" with the tactical buy recommendation of Coinbase ( COIN ) in Oct 2022 during the previous crypto winter, which has since gone up by 315%. Author track record on crypto (Seeking Alpha) Now back to the discussion on the Bitcoin National Reserve. Timeline and overview Bitcoin price (StockCharts) The idea of establishing a Bitcoin National Reserve in the US is a relatively recent one. If you google for "Bitcoin reserve" before July 1, 2024, you won't find many mainstream mentions of the idea. President-elect Donald Trump first mentioned creating a "national bitcoin stockpile" on July 27, 2024 at a bitcoin conference, reportedly saying "If I am elected, it will be the policy of my administration, the United States of America, to keep 100% of all the bitcoin the U.S. government currently holds or acquires into the future…If we don't embrace crypto and bitcoin technology, China will, other countries will. They'll dominate, and we cannot let China dominate. They are making too much progress as it is." As shown in the above chart, this mention coincided with the trough in bitcoin (BTC-USD) prices in July 2024, which have soared since Donald Trump won the US Presidential election in November 2024. The Bitcoin Act of 2024 was also introduced on July 31, 2024 by Senator Cynthia Lummis, which proposed to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve through the Treasury purchasing 1 million Bitcoins over a 5-year period and held for 20 years (unless used to retire the outstanding federal debt). Since Donald Trump won the election, momentum (or at least discussion) for establishing a Bitcoin National Reserve has snowballed: Trump has nominated David Sacks as AI and crypto czar, who is viewed as friendly towards the crypto industry. Trump has made multiple comments on crypto that were viewed positively ( example ) My Assessment of likelihood My current assessment is, despite the hype, it is unlikely the Bitcoin National Reserve will be established in any meaningful way: There may be some symbolic gesture where the Bitcoin owned by the US federal government ( currently about 200k ) is placed in a reserve; however, the federal government purchasing massive amounts of Bitcoin is probably unlikely. Based on a summary of pros and cons from the broader financial community, I personally don't find the arguments in favor of establishing a Bitcoin reserve as persuasive: Reasons supporting Bitcoin reserve My view 1. Inflation hedges against economic uncertainty and monetary instability While buying Bitcoin as an inflation hedge may make sense from an individual investor's point of view, it does not make sense from a legislative point of view. Inflation over the long run is largely due to money printing and government overspending, without addressing these root causes, proposing that the government buys bitcoin just because the government cannot balance its books doesn't sound like a strong argument to me. It's like, if a car broke down, proposing to rent a car instead of fixing it. 2. strengthen the dollar as the world's reserve currency It's not clear to me why promoting an alternative currency strengthens the dollar as the world's reserve currency. It could just as well encourage other countries to use Bitcoin and forgo the dollar. 3.exert control over bitcoin supply I'm not sure what would be achieved by the government owning 5% or 10% or 15% of all Bitcoin supply. Does having 19 million Bitcoin in circulation rather than 21 million Bitcoin in circulation somehow improve Bitcoin? By the same logic, the Federal Reserve might buy stocks just to exert control of the supply of stocks, but the stock market is doing just fine doing its own thing without such additional governmental support. Reasons against Bitcoin reserve 1. not crucial to running the economy (unlike oil reserves) This I would tend to agree with. While having mineral and resource stockpiles could be useful in times of economic crisis, stockpiling a bunch of digital tokens doesn't really do anything. If the concern were inflation, then the root cause should be addressed rather than funding a bitcoin reserve and avoiding root problems. 2.commit the state and taxpayers to backing bitcoin and create economic risks This I find some merits as well. While I can appreciate the uses of Bitcoin, does that mean the government should commit to backing it when there are so many other items on the agenda? And if the wider public has that question in mind, it may be difficult to pass actual legislation funding any Bitcoin reserve. Donald Trump's pronouncements on Bitcoin appear, in my opinion, to be telling crypto proponents what they want to hear rather than a well-thought-out policy: His initial pledge to establish a Bitcoin Strategic Stockpile in July 2024 was made at a Bitcoin conference, so it may just be electioneering and fundraising and telling the crypto crowd what they want to hear. Trump has previously made many negative comments on Bitcoin before embracing it in July 2024, e.g. in 2021 he called Bitcoin "a scam against the US Dollar". There is very little indication of what caused this change of heart. While Donald Trump has been very public and consistent about some of his policy ideas since the 1980s (e.g. getting US allies to contribute more defense spending or tariffs) and attempted to apply them during his first term as president, his change in stance on Bitcoin is relatively new and untested. This could mean even if he views Bitcoin more positively (for whatever reason), he might not push too hard for it and just make a moderate effort to placate his supporters, which might not be enough to get the Bitcoin reserve established. It contradicts with his pledge to maintain the US Dollar reserve currency status. Trump has mentioned potential massive tariffs against countries that go against the US Dollar reserve currency status. It would make no sense to expend that much effort to maintain the USD reserve currency status just to undermine it by elevating Bitcoin. Some of his points don't correspond to what is happening in reality: Trump often mentions that the US should counter China's influence in crypto while China has actually banned crypto activities in its mainland territories (allowing crypto to be conducted only in Hong Kong etc), so this type of "straw man" argument does not hold up under close scrutiny. Massive funding for something so unorthodox (purchasing 1 million Bitcoin at $100,000/each would cost $100 billion) would be relatively hard to pass in Congress. Witness in the below chart how during the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 how it took a stock market collapsing for a year before Congress would pass legislation establishing TARP. Given how we've seen in the past week the difficulty of getting run-of-the-mill stopgap spending bills through Congress, spending a hundred billion dollars purchasing Bitcoin sounds farfetched. DJIA 2008 (Online charts)
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US-based crypto exchange Coinbase says there will be five main trends to watch in the digital asset markets next year. In a new “Crypto Market Outlook” report, Coinbase starts its list with stablecoins, saying that they’re “just getting started” after the sector’s explosive growth in 2024. Coinbase says stablecoins are crypto’s “killer app” and their use case will soon expand beyond simple trading. “As stablecoins continue their surge, we are rapidly approaching the day when their first and primary use cases will be global capital flows and commerce, rather than trading.” Next on the list is the tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs), which Coinbase says will emerge as a cornerstone of the current crypto market cycle in 2025. “Firms are experimenting with using tokenized assets as collateral for other financial transactions, like those involving derivatives, which could streamline operations and mitigate risk. Moreover, the RWA trend is expanding beyond assets like US Treasuries and money market funds – finding traction with private credit, commodities, corporate bonds, real estate, and insurance as well.” The third area to watch, according to Coinbase, is the exchange-traded fund (ETF) space. Coinbase says it expects institutional interest to remain concentrated within a select few crypto ETFs. The crypto exchange is also interested in potential rule changes that regulators could make, like allowing ETF products to incorporate staking or in-kind redemptions. Next up is decentralized finance (DeFi). Coinbase says DeFi will witness a “resurgence” that will propel it into a new era and extend its reach. “Decentralized finance (DeFi) took some hits in the previous cycle, but a more sustainable and resilient ecosystem has emerged. Lending protocols are hitting all-time highs in total value locked (TVL), while decentralized exchanges (DEXs) are pushing their share of trading volumes – relative to centralized exchanges (CEXs) – to unprecedented levels.” The fifth area in crypto markets Coinbase says to watch is the regulatory climate, which the exchange says is due for a major shift that boosts the industry. Coinbase says that a pro-crypto majority in both the House and Senate will be a tailwind for crypto in 2025. “Specifically, we expect to see the establishment of a comprehensive regulatory framework in the US, the introduction of sound stablecoin legislation, and an end to the era of regulation by enforcement. And the US isn’t the only jurisdiction poised to make regulatory progress. Many G20 countries and major financial hubs are writing rules to accommodate digital assets, which should help create more conducive environments for innovation and growth. Taken together, these moves can open the door for more people and institutions to confidently participate in the crypto economy.” Don't Miss a Beat – Subscribe to get email alerts delivered directly to your inbox Check Price Action Follow us on X , Facebook and Telegram Surf The Daily Hodl Mix Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing. Generated Image: Midjourney The post Coinbase Says There Are Five Key Areas of the Crypto Market To Watch in 2025 appeared first on The Daily Hodl .
Bitcoin surged to nearly $110,000 after Trump's re-election as President. The Fed's policies and volatility are influencing investor behavior in the crypto market. Continue Reading: Bitcoin Experiences Unprecedented Rise Following Trump’s Re-election The post Bitcoin Experiences Unprecedented Rise Following Trump’s Re-election appeared first on COINTURK NEWS .
Ripple Vs SEC Lawsuit: On the fourth anniversary of US Securities and Exchange Commission v. Ripple Labs Inc (SEC v. Ripple), Chief Legal Officer (CLO) Stuart Alderoty has publicly called for its end. He called for the incoming Donald Trump administration to address damages done by former SEC official William “Bill” Hinman , including regulatory statements that confused the crypto industry. Ripple CLO Stuart Alderoty Calls for End of SEC “Lawless Lawsuit” Stuart Alderoty took to X on the fourth anniversary of Ripple vs SEC lawsuit. He called for the end of the “lawless lawsuit” by the US SEC against Ripple, CEO Brad Garlinghouse and co-founder Chris Larsen . On behalf of Ripple and its executives, Alderoty urged the incoming Donald Trump administration to “cleanse the lingering stain of Hinman from the agency.” It’s important to note that William “Bill” Hinman’s regulatory statements left a significant impact on the crypto industry. Hinman emails and speech have both clarified and confused the status of crypto. This has caused conflicts of interest, especially Ripple vs SEC lawsuit. “On this 4th anniversary of the SEC’s lawless lawsuit against Ripple, Brad, & Chris, we urge the incoming administration to cleanse the lingering stain of Hinman from the agency.” In addition, Ripple CLO Stuart Alderoty said the Trump administration has much to do to repair the damage. However, the SEC under incoming crypto-friendly Chair Paul Atkins needs to start with restoring trust. US judges said the SEC acted ‘arbitrarily and capriciously’ as it lost faithful allegiance to the law. The agency faced criticism due to its overregulation and enforcement approach. What’s Next in XRP-related Lawsuits In the Ripple vs SEC lawsuit, the agency must file its opening brief by January 15 deadline. This comes just five days before Chair Gary Gensler to step down as SEC Chair. The agency has appealed XRP distribution and sales by Ripple and executives Garlinghouse and Larsen in the 2nd Circuit Court. Meanwhile, the crypto community is confident that crypto lawsuits will be dismissed or withdrawn under the Trump administration. Besides, the class action lawsuit against Ripple , XRP II and CEO Garlinghouse is almost over as the district court ruled in favor of the defendants. Also, lead plaintiffs agreed to expedite final judgment in the lawsuit, along with a proposed order agreeing that there is no reason to delay judgment. As CoinGape reported, the 9th Circuit Court announced further dates for the XRP lawsuit. The opening brief will be filed on March 6 next year, whereas and Ripple Labs, XRP II and CEO Brad Garlinghouse will file their reply to the appellant’s principal brief by April 7, 2025. The post Ripple Vs SEC: Ripple CLO Stuart Alderoty Pleas To End And “Restore Trust” appeared first on CoinGape .
HyperLiquid, a layer-1 blockchain and decentralized exchange for perpetual futures (perps), has experienced a notable outflow of the USDC stablecoin amid speculation North Korean hackers are interacting with the platform, according to a post on X by pseudonymous observer Tay, known for tracking threats posed by to crypto protocols by the country. A record $60 million of USDC fled the exchange by 10:00 UTC Monday, according to Hashed Official's Dune-based tracker . USDC, the world's second-largest dollar-pegged stablecoin, is used as collateral on HyperLiquid. The deposit bridge still holds $2.2 billion in USDC. Addresses associated with hackers from the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) have accrued losses exceeding $700,000 while trading on HyperLiquid, Tay said. The transactions indicate the hackers are potentially familiarizing themselves with the platform's inner workings to launch a malicious attack. "DPRK doesn't trade. DPRK tests," Tay said . CoinDesk contacted HyperLiquid on X for comments on the USDC outflows and potential threat from North Korea. Tay said they reached out to the platform two weeks ago, offering help in countering a potential threat. "I really want to emphasize that these are the most sophisticated and rapidly evolving of all of the DPRK threat groups. They are very creative and persistent. They also get their hands on 0days (such as the one Chrome patched today," Tay's message to the platform said. HyperLiquid is the leading on-chain perpetuals exchange, commanding over 50% of the total on-chain perpetuals trading volume, which tallied $8.6 billion in the past 24 hours. The platform debuted its token HYPE on Nov. 29. Since then, it hassurged over 600% to $28.6, briefly topping $10 billion in market capitalization. As of writing, HYPE was the 22nd largest digital asset in the world, according to Coingecko .
In a recent development, Gate.io has officially introduced HIVE perpetual contract trading with USDT settlements, effective December 23, 2024 (UTC+8). This innovative addition allows traders to utilize a robust leverage
Robert Kiyosaki, author of best-seller 'Rich Dad Poor Dad,' sounds Bitcoin alarm amid global crash