On June 23, pre-market trading revealed a varied performance among cryptocurrency-related stocks in the United States. Notably, Sharplink Gaming experienced a decline of 5.38%, reflecting sector-specific pressures. Conversely, Circle demonstrated
Welcome to Latam Insights Encore, a deep dive into Latin America’s most relevant economic and crypto news from the past week. This edition explores how President Javier Milei’s actions have paid off, enabling the country to reduce its inflation levels to their lowest point in five years. Latam Insights Encore: Milei’s Risk Move Wins Big,
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Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced that it has been granted a license from Luxembourg under the European Union’s new crypto asset regulation MiCA, authorizing it to provide services in all 27 EU member states. Coinbase Receives MiCA License from Luxembourg to Expand Presence in Europe The company announced on Friday that it has been licensed by the Luxembourg Commission for Financial Sector Supervision (CSSF) and has officially established its European headquarters in Luxembourg. “Over the last few years, we have worked closely with regulators across Europe, securing licences in Germany, France, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain. “Now, with MiCA, we are bringing these efforts together under one roof, giving millions of Europeans access to regulated, reliable and secure crypto services,” the company said in a statement. What is MiCA? The Crypto-Asset Markets Regulation (MiCA) aims to simplify compliance processes and increase consumer protection by creating a single legal framework for crypto-asset service providers across the European Union. MiCA entered into force by the end of 2024 and is binding across the EU. Following Coinbase, other major crypto platforms are also drawing attention by making moves to strengthen their positions in Europe. According to Reuters, Gemini, owned by the Winklevoss brothers, is in the final stages of the process of obtaining a MiCA licence through Malta. The company had applied in January 2025. Similarly, another major exchange, OKX, has chosen Malta as its MiCA headquarters. This strategic move by Coinbase reflects both the fierce competition in the European market and the desire of crypto firms to position themselves more strongly in jurisdictions with regulatory clarity. *This is not investment advice. Continue Reading: Bitcoin Exchange Coinbase Expands to Europe! Authorized to Provide Service in 27 Countries! Here Are the Details
BitcoinWorld OKX IPO: Bold Move Eyes US Market Opportunity Major news is circulating in the cryptocurrency world! OKX, recognized as one of the top global crypto exchanges, is reportedly exploring a significant step: a potential Initial Public Offering (IPO) in the United States. This development comes shortly after OKX relaunched its services specifically for the US market this April. The report, shared by crypto reporter Yueqi Yang of The Information on the platform X, suggests that the exchange is seriously considering listing on a US stock exchange. Why is OKX Considering a US IPO Now? The timing of this potential OKX IPO is particularly interesting. The report highlights that valuations for Crypto Stocks are currently experiencing a notable rally, surprising even seasoned industry professionals. This favorable market environment for publicly traded companies with significant exposure to digital assets likely presents an attractive window for OKX to seek public funding and broader market validation. A successful Crypto IPO like this could provide OKX with substantial capital for further expansion, enhance its public image and credibility, and potentially attract a wider base of institutional investors who might be more comfortable investing in a publicly listed entity rather than directly on a crypto platform. OKX’s Return to the US Market: A Strategic Move OKX’s decision to relaunch as OKX US earlier this year was a clear signal of its intent to compete in the highly regulated but lucrative American market. The US represents one of the largest economies globally, with significant potential for cryptocurrency adoption. Operating a dedicated US Crypto Exchange platform allows OKX to tailor its services to comply with specific state and federal regulations, offering a more compliant and potentially safer environment for American users. The relaunch involved establishing a new entity and platform designed to meet the complex regulatory requirements in the United States. This foundational step was crucial and likely a prerequisite for even considering a public listing in the country. What Does a Potential OKX IPO Mean? Should OKX proceed with a US Crypto Exchange IPO, it would be a landmark event for the digital asset industry. Here are some key implications: Increased Legitimacy: Listing on a major US stock exchange would lend significant credibility to OKX and, by extension, the wider crypto market in the eyes of traditional finance and the general public. Capital Infusion: An IPO would provide OKX with a significant war chest to invest in technology, security, marketing, and potentially acquisitions, strengthening its competitive position. Regulatory Scrutiny: Becoming a publicly traded company in the US means adhering to stringent reporting requirements and increased oversight from regulatory bodies like the SEC. Market Competition: A successful OKX US IPO would intensify competition with existing publicly traded crypto companies, most notably Coinbase (COIN). Investor Access: It would offer traditional investors another avenue to gain exposure to the growth of the cryptocurrency ecosystem through regulated stock markets. The performance of existing Crypto Stocks , such as Coinbase and MicroStrategy, which have seen significant gains during recent market upturns, likely serves as a positive indicator for OKX’s potential market reception. Challenges on the Path to a US Listing While the prospect is exciting, the path to a OKX IPO in the US is fraught with challenges: Regulatory Hurdles: Navigating the complex and often evolving US regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies is perhaps the biggest obstacle. Market Volatility: The inherent volatility of the crypto market can impact investor sentiment and the company’s valuation during the IPO process and afterward. Disclosure Requirements: Public companies must disclose extensive financial and operational information, which requires robust internal controls and transparency. Public Scrutiny: As a public entity, OKX would face constant public and media scrutiny regarding its operations, compliance, and market conduct. Despite these challenges, the potential rewards of tapping into the US capital markets and solidifying its position as a leading global exchange appear to be driving OKX’s consideration. What’s Next for OKX US and the Potential IPO? Currently, this is based on a report citing considerations. There is no official confirmation from OKX regarding specific IPO plans or timelines. However, the fact that it’s being considered, especially after the strategic relaunch of OKX US , indicates a strong ambition to grow its presence and influence in the American market. Market participants will be closely watching for any official announcements from OKX or further reports that shed light on the exchange’s intentions. A successful Crypto IPO by a major player like OKX could set a precedent and potentially encourage other global exchanges to explore similar paths to accessing US capital markets. In Conclusion: The report that OKX is considering a US IPO is a significant development, underscoring the exchange’s commitment to the US market following its recent relaunch. While challenges remain, the current rally in Crypto Stocks and the strategic advantages of a public listing make this a compelling possibility. This potential move highlights the ongoing convergence of the traditional financial system and the burgeoning world of digital assets. To learn more about the latest crypto market trends, explore our article on key developments shaping digital asset institutional adoption. This post OKX IPO: Bold Move Eyes US Market Opportunity first appeared on BitcoinWorld and is written by Editorial Team
Summary I am double downgrading Mastercard to a strong sell due to unprecedented threats from stablecoins and merchant-issued digital currencies, undermining its core revenue model. Regulatory changes and retailer stablecoin adoption, especially by Amazon and Walmart, threaten Mastercard’s fee-based moat and could erode its pricing power. Mastercard’s valuation is dangerously high versus peers, with growth expectations that ignore looming disruption and the risk of a sharp de-rating. Despite MA’s global scale and brand, I see the risk/reward as skewed to the downside and believe stablecoin disruption will be an Achilles' heel. Co-Authored by Noah Cox and Brock Heilig Investment Thesis Shares of Mastercard ( MA ) are down over 8% over the last month. I believe most of this drop-off is due to unprecedented disruption from emerging stablecoin payment networks and merchant-issued digital currencies that threaten the core card rails. Because of this, I am double downgrading shares of the payment card services corporation from a hold to a strong sell. I think retail giants like Amazon and Walmart launching their own stablecoins to bypass traditional card networks and sidestep interchange fees directly undermine Mastercard’s fee-based revenue model. I am also expecting regulatory and fee pressure – like the U.S. Credit Card Competition Act allowing banks to route payments over alternative networks and EU caps on interchange fees ( 0.2% debit, 0.3% credit ) to only get worse and erode Mastercard’s moat. Beyond stablecoins, it also appears that there will be other lower-cost alternatives outside of Mastercard’s network. Competitive technology shifts with fintech wallets (PayPal), real-time bank transfers, BNPL solutions, and blockchain-based payment rails offer merchants and consumers lower-cost alternatives. This clearly does not bode well for Mastercard. Cost-conscious merchants facing margin pressures have stronger incentives to adopt stablecoins or direct bank payments, which could end up diminishing Mastercard’s pricing power when they implement it at scale. If you think about Walmart and Amazon, these are both low-margin retailers (outside of AWS). Low-margin retailers will do anything to improve their margins. This includes cutting out the payment processor (Mastercard). With this, I view the Mastercard risk/reward as skewed toward the downside, warranting a strong sell for the credit card giant. Why I’m Doing Follow-Up Coverage It’s been over a year since I last published coverage on Mastercard , but I’ve recently been pushed by major developments – particularly the Senate’s recent passage of the GENIUS Act stablecoin bill . I believe this bill will fundamentally change the payments landscape. I think it's a different world (compared to when I last wrote on Mastercard back in April 2024). Signals from retail behemoths (such as from the Wall Street Journal, which reports Amazon and Walmart are exploring stablecoins) indicate a more immediate competitive threat to Mastercard’s model than I had previously expected. There’s been about a 5% slide in Mastercard’s shares around the stablecoin news. Investors are repricing the risk and the need to reassess what, I think, is a weakening bull thesis. The purpose of my follow-up coverage is to look at the latest legislative progress, the real merchant stablecoin pilots, and fintech partnerships. I think there is an updated viewpoint investors need to look at. Investors need to look at this company from a more bearish stance. My last piece of coverage on Mastercard in 2024 was simply a Q1 preview that outlined what to expect from the company when it reported its Q1 2024 earnings. Stablecoin Loser As I mentioned above, the biggest reason for my follow-up coverage and the main idea behind my double downgrade of Mastercard is because of stablecoins. I view stablecoins – which are fiat-pegged digital tokens – as a direct threat to Mastercard’s payment rails. Merchant-issued coins facilitate transactions that bypass traditional card networks and eliminate most interchange fees. In my opinion, the GENIUS Act’s regulatory framework for private stablecoins will empower Amazon, Walmart, and others to launch their own tokens, enabling closed-loop ecosystems and self-contained payments flows. This is a huge threat to Mastercard. The big issue here for Mastercard is that the stablecoin payments are expected to save merchants anywhere from 2–3% per transaction by settling on blockchains rather than through card processors, undercutting Mastercard’s core revenue. This presents the company with a major problem. This is literally the foundation of their revenue stream. With this, I think it’s completely possible that universal card acceptance gets challenged here in the next few years. Closed-loop merchant stablecoins (e.g., AmazonCoin, WalmartCoin) integrated into apps and loyalty programs could scale as payment alternatives across retail and B2B. If multiple merchants (outside Amazon or Walmart) accept Walmart coin or Amazon coin because it offers near-instant settlements or low fees, what role does Mastercard play? On this same front, fintech and banking platforms like Circle/USDC, PayPal/PYUSD and a whole host of bank consortia are building stablecoin networks for instant, low-cost settlements, which threatens cross-border fees that really underpin Mastercard’s business. Mastercard’s business works well in the high regulatory barriers and low change markets. This is not the market we are entering. I believe that widespread stablecoin adoption, which appears to be imminent, will erode interchange and network fees. This will then force Mastercard to compete on lower-margin services or risk losing transaction volume. Both of these outcomes, in my opinion, will be detrimental to Mastercard and its business model. It’s why I am now a strong sell. As early evidence, the 5% stock drop after the GENIUS Act passed in the Senate and regulatory momentum underscores why I view Mastercard as a loser in this stablecoin-enabled world. If things continue to progress, I really see this as an Achilles heel to their whole revenue line. Valuation When we look at Mastercard’s valuation metrics , I think it's clear that the stablecoin risk is not priced in. Seeking Alpha Quant gives the company an overall grade of an F. We can see that the company earns a grade of an F on more than half of the valuation metrics. Among the metrics that aren’t given a grade of an F, the only other grades given to Mastercard are D- and D. Mastercard’s highest-rated metric is the forward Non-GAAP PEG, which has a grade of a D. Looking at Mastercard’s forward non-GAAP price-to-earnings ratio, the company has a P/E ratio of 33.48. Compared to the sector median of 10.45, this is a heavy premium of 220.29%. As with many other ratings, Seeking Alpha Quant gives Mastercard a grade of an F on this metric. What’s most concerning to me about this is that competitors like Visa (~ 30x ), PayPal (~ 14x ), and Block (~ 23x ) have notably lower forward Non-GAAP price-to-earnings ratios. Their high ratio of 33.48 for Mastercard tells me the market has high growth expectations, but as I’ve mentioned in multiple spots in this article, I don’t see those growth expectations coming to fruition. I really believe that stablecoins are a risk. Mastercard’s forward Non-GAAP PEG ratio of 2.42 is nearly double the sector median of 1.26. As I mentioned earlier in this section, Seeking Alpha Quant gives Mastercard a grade of a D on this metric, which is the company’s best-graded metric. The fact that Mastercard’s PEG ratio significantly exceeds those of its peers suggests that there is overvaluation relative to its mid-teens EPS growth consensus. Looking at Mastercard’s forward EV/Sales ratio, the company has a ratio of 15.50, which far exceeds the sector median of 3.04. This is more than a 400% premium to the sector median, and Seeking Alpha Quant gives Mastercard a grade of an F on this metric. Mastercard’s forward Price/Cash Flow ratio of 30.92 is also ~114% higher than the sector median of 14.45. Seeking Alpha Quant gives Mastercard a grade of a D- on this metric. It really concerns me that Mastercard’s valuation multiples dwarf the sector median on these metrics, while fintech peers trade at a fraction of those multiples. Given moderating growth rates and emerging stablecoin threats, I think that the current valuation leaves little room for error and exposes the stock to a sharp de-rating toward peer multiples. If we see this happen, it could result in Mastercard’s forward price-to-earnings ratio dropping to ~20, which would be about 40% downside for the company. Bull Thesis While I’ve double downgraded shares of Mastercard from a hold to a strong sell, I will say the company still has a bull thesis that could come to fruition. At the core of it, Mastercard has an unparalleled global scale, with 150 million merchants and billions of cards outstanding. In essence, Mastercard has entrenched brand trust that the new entrants into the field cannot replicate overnight, even if they are a stablecoin that promises to cut down on merchant fees. I will admit that I do recognize the inherent security, fraud protection, and dispute-resolution guarantees of Mastercard’s credit card network that stablecoins wallets currently lack. Mastercard is also not naive and is actively integrating stablecoins, as they’ve recently partnered with Circle and Paxos to enable USDC settlements, potentially earning new network-based fees on crypto flows. Even with all of this, however, I don’t think this is enough. Stablecoin architectures are radically different from Mastercard’s traditional payment networks. If we look at Mastercard’s valuation, I don’t think it makes sense given that most of their business is at risk. The market is pricing Mastercard’s forward P/E higher than the sector median even though they are going to see a higher-than-average probability of substantial business disruption over the next 5 years. This seems mismatched and incorrect. Takeaway I believe it’s clear that Mastercard (unfortunately for them) sits at the nexus of stablecoin disruption, regulatory crackdowns, and lofty valuation expectations. When we take all of these things into consideration, I think it becomes clear that the risk/reward ratio is heavily tilted toward the downside. With this, I am now a strong sell. Given the structural threats to Mastercard’s fee model and the stock’s premium multiples, I find it hard to believe that the company will be able to overcome these hurdles. Stablecoins are simply a radically different space. Merchants will push customers to adopt them. Mastercard could very likely lose. With this, shares are double downgraded from a hold to a strong sell.
Institutional investors are demonstrating strong confidence in major cryptocurrencies like BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP despite recent market volatility triggered by geopolitical tensions. Crypto asset investment products recorded $1.24 billion
Summary Coinbase is set to benefit from stablecoin adoption and its strategic partnership with Circle, driving stable, recurring revenue growth. The company's shift toward subscriptions and services, especially via Coinbase Base, diversifies its business beyond volatile trading fees. Despite competitive risks and margin pressures, my valuation of $394 per share offers a 28% premium, with an 86% probability of upside. I recommend buying Coinbase, as it is well-positioned to capitalize on the stablecoin revolution and decentralized applications growth. Investment thesis The explosion of stablecoin adoption is going to benefit Coinbase ( COIN ) handsomely due to its dual relationship with Circle Internet Group ( CRCL ). The company is not a leader in the crypto exchange platforms industry, but it is gaining scale and diversifying away from a volatile transaction business to a subscription model with Coinbase Base. My value estimate is $394 per share, representing a 28% premium over its current stock price. I recommend buying the stock. Relationship with Circle One of the most valuable things about Coinbase is its relationship with Circle Internet Group. Stablecoins are different from Bitcoins or other traditional cryptocurrencies. Stablecoins are a payment network, as they are directly linked to a fiat currency. As Circle has been ascending in the stock market, Visa ( V ) and Mastercard ( MA ) have decreased by 5%-7% in market value (Figure 1). FIgure 1: Seeking Alpha Two kinds of relationships add value for Coinbase. First of all, Coinbase holds 3.7% of Circle shares. Coinbase's equity raise as Circle’s market value increases. In Figure 2, you can see how Circle's run-up from IPO has pushed Coinbase’s price further up. Figure 2: Seeking Alpha The second relationship is based on the distribution of USDC from Circle. Coinbase earns 100% of the reserve income if the USD is held on Coinbase’s platform. Remember that for each USDC, Circle invests $1 in US treasuries or any cash equivalent to the dollar, and any interest from those assets is the revenue for Circle that is shared with Coinbase. If the USDC is held on any other platform, the reserve income is split by 50%. Both types of relations with Circle are positive for Coinbase, as stablecoins are cryptocurrencies that have a non-speculative value. It is a payment platform that is going to disrupt the payments industry, and it will be supported by a new regulatory framework, the GENIUS Act, which was approved by the Senate and is pending further approvals. The company is reaching the necessary scale with a diversified approach Revenue grows at a reasonable pace, with $2 billion in the last quarter, at a pace of 40.3% year over year. Monthly transacting users grow 21% to 9.7 million, and trading volume grows 26% to $393 billion. Its trading volume is healthy, growing in the consumer segment by 39% to $78 million and in the institutional segment by 23% to $315 billion. However, the company is not taking advantage of all this new incremental activity, as Consumer transaction revenue has grown only 17% to $1.095 billion, and institutional transaction revenue has grown 16% to $99 million in the last quarter compared to the same quarter last year. FIgure 3: Author based on the company's financials I consider the subscription and services segment to be the critical component of its business model, as it is more stable than trading revenue, diversifying the cash flow stream. It is growing handsomely at 36.6% to $698 million. This subscription service is driven by stablecoin revenue, especially USDC, which is growing at 51%. It is especially relevant due to the distribution relationship with Circle, which is a key point in my investment thesis. Another good news and critical for me is that Other subscription and services are up 47%, diversifying away from the volatile transaction segment. Inside this category, I consider promising what the company is doing with Coinbase Base. As the company defines : “Base is an Ethereum Layer 2 (L2) blockchain solution developed and incubated by Coinbase, designed to offer a secure, low-cost, and developer-friendly environment for building decentralized applications (dApps)” The Deribit acquisition will provide Coinbase with diversification in its portfolio and geography. Deribit is the largest crypto options platform and is a product that Coinbase doesn’t hold, a complementary fit. Additionally, it will help them expand their business beyond the US. FIgure 4: Author based on the company's financials Margins have deteriorated from 41.3% to 36.1% (Figure 5), excluding gains and losses on crypto, which is too volatile to evaluate the underlying business. Transaction expenses have grown 39.4%, more than revenue growth, due to pressure to monetize its network activity. General and administrative costs are growing close to 40%, which is the type of cost that you will want to erase. The company is making an effort to control expenses with technology and development, maintaining the same expenditures as the same quarter a year ago. And it is partially financing the push in sales and marketing, with expenditure growth at 150%. Figure 5: Author based on the company's financials Figure 6 illustrates the efforts the company is making to gain traction and scale the business. And I think it is going in the right direction. In the last trailing years, the company has increased revenue to $6.8 billion and lowered operating expenses from 134.5% to 50.9%, and I hope it will continue to improve. Figure 6: Author based on the company's financials Valuation Figure 7 illustrates the company's value drivers, considering a year as the last four quarters to capture the most recent information. Regarding margins, I utilize a measure I call Cash Margin, which involves adjusting net income for non-cash items such as amortization and depreciation, stock-based compensation, and deferred income tax. Figure 7: Author based on the company's financials From the current 80% trailing revenue growth rate, I estimate that revenue will grow at diminishing rates until reaching 25% by 2028 and later on. This is a regular pattern of a growing company. The cash margin is set at the current 45% trailing value for the entire period of my model. I think it is a conservative assumption, as I have described the company is improving its scale, and it will continue to do so over the next years. Change in net working capital will stabilize at -5% of revenue, as its growth will mean certain pressure on working capital. Cash flows will be discounted at an 18.2% WACC because the beta is 3.62. The risk-free rate is 4.5%. The company's leverage is 5%, considering equity as market capitalization, and I consider $328 million of excess cash. The perpetual growth rate is set at 3%. Figure 8: Author Based on Figure 8, I estimate a value of $394.4 per share, a 28% premium over its current stock price. As seeing in Figure 9, my valuation has an implied 51 Price-To-Free Cash Flow multiple that is what the company has at the end of last year or a year ago. Data by YCharts Figure 9 Two main risks: competition and crypto relevance Binance is the major player in the industry, with 38% of the market share and $482 billion in transaction volume a month. Second place goes to Gate.io , with a 9.0% market share and $114 billion in transaction volume. Coinbase is the sixth player with 7% market share, 9.7 million monthly transacting users, and $88 billion in the last quarter. Binance offers more cryptocurrencies, over 350, compared to Coinbase's 240, and lower transaction fees, such as 0.1%, compared to Coinbase's 0.6% to 1.2%. The main risk here is the potential for concentration due to higher competition. As platforms are more expensive and scale gets more relevant, fewer competitors will be able to keep pace with those investments. That can happen to Coinbase, resulting in lower margins and reduced revenue. I have described stablecoins as cryptos that create value and are useful as payment platforms. The rest of the cryptocurrencies are mainly speculative, in my opinion, with no fundamental value. Any bursting of the bubble will damage its revenue and margins. The risk is not life-threatening because, in the short term, with the support of the Trump administration, cryptocurrencies are expected to increase in volume. In the long term, Coinbase's business model will be supported by stablecoins and Coinbase’s Base, exploiting a platform for building decentralized applications, dApps. I have modeled those risks as a triangular distribution function where revenue is set as -5% as the lower limit, with a probability of 5%, and 2% as the upper 95% probability. It is an asymmetric function due to the risks outlined in this section. This variation means that in an extreme case, revenue would grow at 20% instead of 25%. On margins and net working capital variation, I am modelling a symmetric function as I see the same possibilities to the upside as the downside. In the Cash margin, there are the risks mentioned before, but the scale Conibase is getting can improve further. It is set as -3% as the lower limit, with a probability of 5%, and 3% as the upper 95% probability. And in Net working capital variation is set as -2% as the lower limit, with a probability of 5%, and 2% as the upper limit with a 95% probability. The result of the Crystal Ball simulation is that there is 86.4% probability of getting a value estimate higher than the current stock price, and revenue growth explains 85.5% of the variation, and cash margin 9.9% of it. Conclusion In today’s world, crypto is supported by the US government. I believe that there is a disruptive revolution with stablecoins, and Coinbase is taking advantage of it. The company is growing in this front, and this expansion is allowing it to capture scale while diversifying in products like Coinbase Base, entering the space of decentralized applications, dApps. I recommend buying the stock, as my value estimate is 28% above its current price of $394.4 per share, with an 86% chance of getting a value higher than its current stock price. The company has a Price-To-Free Cash Flow multiple of 51, which it has already achieved in the past.
Solana has formalized a strategic partnership with Kazakhstan to accelerate the growth of its crypto ecosystem through education and startup support. This collaboration aims to enhance blockchain adoption by fostering
Crypto investment inflows have sustained momentum for the 10th consecutive week, totaling $1.24 billion despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. Bitcoin remains the dominant asset with $1.1 billion in inflows, while Ethereum