1. Overview Singapore, 28 May , 2025 – The global macroeconomic environment is undergoing profound adjustments, and the cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin price fluctuations, is increasingly affected by the complex influences of macro liquidity, market risk appetite, major policy trends, and investment strategy choices. In terms of liquidity, abundant funds often boost the prices of assets such as Bitcoin, while the opposite creates suppression. At the same time, given Bitcoin’s current high volatility and its periodic linkage with traditional risk assets (such as US stocks), the overall risk appetite of the market is also a key driver of its price performance. In addition, government fiscal, monetary and regulatory policies, as well as investment strategy choices for stablecoins and other crypto assets, are increasingly becoming important variables affecting market direction. This report will focus on four core dimensions: liquidity, risk appetite, policy game and investment strategy, to deeply analyze the key variables affecting the Bitcoin market in the current macro background, including the evolution of rate cut expectations, the continuation of Quantitative Tightening (QT), the dynamics of the US Treasury General Account (TGA), the monetary policy shifts of major economies such as Japan, as well as factors such as geopolitics, tax reduction policies, regulatory policies, institutional entry and stablecoin financial management, striving to provide investors with a clear outlook on the future market trend of Bitcoin through detailed data support and rigorous logical deduction. 2. Liquidity Analysis: Rate Cut Expectations Cooling, QT Continuing, TGA Reflowing in June, Yen Expected to Raise Rates, US Dollar Liquidity May Continue to Tighten in the Near Term 2.1 Rate Cut Expectations Cooling, Focus on Data and Tariffs Previously, the market had significant expectations for multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025. However, recent macroeconomic data and policy signals have led to a substantial adjustment of these expectations.. In mid-May 2025, following the release of US CPI data and an easing of US-China tariff, market expectations for Fed rate cuts this year have cooled. The prevailing sentiment now anticipates two rate cuts this year (September, December), a more cautious outlook compared to the previous expectation of three cuts, with the first in July. The core driving force for this change lies in Fed Chairman Powell’s firm stance, the continued strong performance of the job market, and ongoing concerns about the future inflation path, particularly potential tariff impacts . 2.1.1 Powell’s Stance: Adhering to “Data-Dependent”, Refusing to Pay for Tariffs Fed Chairman Powell has consistently emphasized a “data-dependent” policy stance in multiple public speeches, explicitly refusing to accommodate external pressures, such as those related to tariff policies. This means that any decision on rate cuts must be based on solid economic data. Key indicators include sustained progress towards the 2% inflation target and a significant cooling of the job market. This “Data-dependent” approach also aligns with Powell’s professional considerations. Powell’s term will end in May 2026, a premature rate cut without clear economic data support, followed by uncontrolled inflation, would directly signify a policy failure on his part. Conversely, if the U.S. economy were to enter a recession during his tenure, necessitating rapid rate cuts, such a downturn could be attributed to broader policy impacts. Consequently, Powell is inclined to await more definitive economic signals before implementing rate cuts, thereby mitigating unnecessary policy risks.. In addition, Powell’s refusal to “pay for tariffs” signifies an unwillingness to implicitly endorse policies that introduce market uncertainty by cutting rates to offset tariff-induced shocks. However, Powell has also indicated in past speeches that the Federal Reserve would intervene if market volatility threatened the stability of the financial system. Therefore, Powell is likely to prioritize clear data support for inflation and employment before initiating any rate cuts, potentially disregarding political pressures. These two core economic indicators remain central to future rate cut decisions. . 2.1.2 Job Market: Strong Performance Supports High Interest Rates The continued strength of the US job market is a pivotal factor supporting the Fed’s decision to maintain the current elevated interest rate environment. Current US economic data underscores this resilience., In April 2025, non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000, significantly exceeding the anticipated 130,000, while the unemployment rate stood at a robust 4.2%. Multiple indicators suggest this strong employment trend is likely to persist. In terms of tariff conflicts , the unexpected easing of US-China tariff conflicts is proving beneficial for US export industries targeting the Chinese market, which will undoubtedly have a positive impact on US economic growth and the job market. Furthermore, potential tariff revenue could alleviate fiscal pressure, indirectly support government spending and contribute to overall economic health. In terms of corporate performance , First-quarter reports from US listed companies reveal strong results, with 73% of S&P 500 index constituents reporting earnings that surpassed expectations This positive corporate performance bodes well for employment and investment. In terms of employment , recent data is strong, reinforcing the expectation that the economy will not be weak in the short term, and the unemployment rate is unlikely to break the key threshold of 4.5% in the short term. As long as the job market avoids a sharp deterioration, the Fed has ample justification to maintain high interest rates to combat inflation. However, it is important to note that some data suggests a nascent trend of deterioration in the US job market, requiring ongoing observation. As long as the job market avoids a sharp deterioration, such as a surge in the unemployment rate or new job additions consistently falling significantly below expectations or even turning negative, the Fed will retain greater policy flexibility. This allows the Fed to prioritize inflation control without the immediate need to stimulate the economy through rate cuts. A strong job market means continued support for wage growth, which could exert persistent upward pressure on service inflation, thereby complicating the overall trajectory of inflation decline. 2.1.3 Inflation Outlook: CPI Year-on-Year Temporarily Creates New Low, Tariff Shock May Appear in the Third Quarter While the US CPI in April 2025 fell to 2.3% year-on-year, marking its lowest level since February 2021, this trend has, to some extent, assuaged immediate market anxieties about a resurgence in inflation and initially boosted rate cut expectations.. However, judgment on the future inflation outlook still needs to be cautious. The risk point currently highly concerned by the market is the potential impact of US-China tariff policies. Even with recent easing in US-China tariff conflicts, some imported goods still face high tariffs, with costs mostly borne by consumers. Goods subject to tariffs of over 30% entering the US in the coming months may trigger a one-time inflation shock. Internal research by the Fed also supports the view that tariffs may cause a one-time shock to inflation. Nationwide economist Ayres predicts that the summer CPI year-on-year may return to above 3%. This potential upward risk of inflation driven by tariffs will undoubtedly increase the complexity of the Fed’s rate cut decisions and may further delay the timing of rate cuts. Summary In summary, despite the recent slight improvement in CPI data, Fed Chairman Powell’s cautious “data-dependent” stance, the continued strong job market, and concerns about future (especially third quarter) inflation shocks that may be triggered by tariffs have collectively led to a significant cooling of market expectations for Fed rate cuts this year. In the short term, market liquidity expectations are thus suppressed, and the upside for risk assets such as Bitcoin may be limited. 2.2 The Fed’s “Balance Sheet Reduction” is Ongoing, TGA Will Reflow in June, Liquidity May Contract Periodically. If Debt Ceiling Agreement is Reached in August, TGA May Extract Liquidity in the Short Term In addition to expected changes in interest rate policy, the Fed’s balance sheet reduction plan (i.e., Quantitative Tightening, QT) and its interaction with the Treasury’s TGA account are also key variables affecting market liquidity. Since June 2022, the Fed has actively engaged in reducing its massive balance sheet, aiming to withdraw excess liquidity from the market. The official policy path still tends to end this round of balance sheet reduction in the second half of 2025. Looking at SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate), an indicator reflecting the degree of funding tightness within the US federal funds market, SOFR has demonstrated relative stability recently, at most reaching the level of IORB (Interest on Reserve Balances), with limited market funding tightness. If subsequent volatility expands, it will need to be closely monitored. Looking at the ratio of Fed depository institution reserves to commercial bank total assets, it is still above 13%, in a state where liquidity is not tight. Based on past experience, when this ratio is less than 10-12%, market interest rates will experience more obvious fluctuations, such as the brief liquidity crisis in the second half of 2019. In summary, this means that in the coming months, QT will continue and withdraw liquidity from the market, although its marginal impact may weaken as the balance sheet reduction approaches its end. A more direct impact onliquidity shock may come from the dynamics of the US Treasury’s TGA account. The TGA represents the Treasury’s deposit account at the Fed, and changes in its balance directly affect the level of reserves in the banking system, thereby affecting market liquidity. When the TGA balance increases, it means that the Treasury absorbs funds from the market and deposits them into the Fed, leading to a decrease in bank reserves and tightening liquidity; conversely, when the TGA balance decreases, it releases liquidity. Currently, the TGA account is experiencing continuously outflows,thereby supplementing market liquidity, but it is expected that in June 2025, with the seasonality of tax revenue, the TGA account balance may see a significant rebound, which will create periodic contraction pressure on short-term market liquidity. In addition, the US debt ceiling issue is another important uncertainty factor. According to the latest forecast by the Bipartisan Policy Center, if Congress fails to suspend or raise the debt ceiling in time, the so-called “X-date” (the day when federal government funds are exhausted) may come between August and early October 2025.) The US Treasury Secretary has also warned that the “X-date” may come in August. Historically, debt ceiling issues are often resolved at the last minute, but the game process before that brings uncertainty to the market. Once the debt ceiling issue is resolved, for example in August, the Treasury typically quickly replenishes the previously consumed TGA account funds through large-scale bond issuance. This will lead to a rapid increase in the TGA balance in the short term, thereby extracting a large amount of liquidity from the market, impacting the financial market, especially the short-term interest rate market. Therefore, considering all factors, the Fed’s continued balance sheet reduction operations, coupled with the seasonal reflux of the TGA account in June, and the rapid replenishment of the TGA account after the debt ceiling issue is resolved in August, are all likely to exert periodic tightening pressure on US dollar liquidity in the coming months. 2.3 Yen Rate Hike Expectations Heating Up, Carry Trade Further Contracting Among major central banks, the continued policy shift of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is another factor that may have a profound impact on global and US dollar liquidity. For a long time, the Bank of Japan has maintained an ultra-loose monetary policy, making the yen one of the main funding currencies for global carry trades. This dynamic involves investors borrowing low-cost yen to invest in higher-yielding assets in other countries, thereby objectively injecting liquidity into the global market. However, with the gradual emergence of inflation pressure in Japan and the improvement of economic prospects, the Bank of Japan has begun to continuously adjust its monetary policy stance. The Bank of Japan has already raised its policy rate from 0.25% to 0.5% on January 24, 2025, while also raising its expected increase in core CPI for fiscal year 2025 from 1.9% to 2.4%, showing that its judgment on the persistence of inflation has strengthened. The market generally expects that the Bank of Japan may continue its pace of rate hikes in 2025. The continued rate hikes by the Bank of Japan may affect global and US dollar liquidity through the following paths: Narrowing the US-Japan interest rate differential, suppressing carry trades: The Bank of Japan’s rate hikes will directly push up yen financing costs, narrowing the interest rate differential between Japan and other major economies (especially the US). When the US-Japan interest rate differential narrows to a certain extent, the attractiveness of yen carry trades will significantly decrease, possibly leading to some carry trades being unwound, i.e., selling overseas assets to exchange back to yen to repay loans. This process is equivalent to withdrawing liquidity from the global market (including the US dollar market). Enhanced attractiveness of yen assets, funds flowing back to Japan: As Japan’s interest rate levels rise and its economic outlook improves, domestic Japanese assets, such as yen-denominated bonds and stocks, may become more attractive to international investors, possibly attracting some funds that were previously invested overseas (including US dollar assets) to flow back to Japan, which will also have a certain siphoning effect on global US dollar liquidity. Changes in market expectations and risk aversion sentiment: The continued normalization of the Bank of Japan’s policy may change the market’s expectation of a long-term continuation of the global low interest rate environment. In specific market conditions, if the yen strengthens due to rate hikes, it may also attract some funds to flow in during times of heightened risk aversion, indirectly affecting the liquidity allocation of other markets. Although the Fed’s future rate cut pace will also affect the dynamics of the US-Japan interest rate differential, the Bank of Japan’s gradual exit from ultra-loose policy and entry into a rate hike channel is undoubtedly an important variable in the global liquidity landscape. Its continued tightening actions, especially in the context of the Fed not yet significantly easing, may put further pressure on global, especially US dollar, liquidity supply. 2.4 Market Liquidity Summary and Forecast: Short-term Tightening, Mid-term Gradual Improvement with Variables 2.4.1 Short-term (next 1-3 months) liquidity outlook: Tight Continued impact of Fed policy: Before inflation data shows persistent and convincing decline and the job market shows significant cooling, the Fed will most likely maintain the current interest rate level unchanged, with rate cut expectations continuing to be pushed back. At the same time, Quantitative Tightening (QT) is still proceeding as planned, continuously withdrawing liquidity from the market. Seasonal and policy shocks of the TGA account: In June 2025, the TGA account may see a seasonal rebound due to factors such as tax inflows, causing short-term liquidity withdrawal. More importantly, if the US debt ceiling issue is resolved around August, the Treasury’s large-scale debt issuance to quickly replenish the TGA account will significantly tighten market liquidity, possibly causing volatility in the short-term interest rate market. Spillover effects of Bank of Japan tightening: If the Bank of Japan continues its rate hike trajectory, it will further narrow the US-Japan interest rate differential, possibly prompting some yen carry trades to unwind, reducing the supply of yen liquidity to the global market, indirectly creating a tightening effect on US dollar liquidity. Market performance expectations: Under the combined effect of the above factors, overall market liquidity is expected to maintain a tight stance in the short term, and may even experience periodic liquidity tension. For risk assets such as Bitcoin, this means that upside may face greater resistance, and market volatility may intensify. 2.4.2 Mid-term (next 3-12 months) liquidity outlook: Gradual improvement but with significant variables Fed policy shift’s gradual nature: The market generally expects the Fed to initiate a rate cut cycle in the second half or end of 2025, and end QT in the second half of 2025. If this expectation materializes, it will bring substantial marginal improvement to market liquidity. However, the magnitude and pace of rate cuts will be highly dependent on economic data (inflation, employment) at that time, with significant uncertainty. If inflation is stubborn or the economy is unexpectedly strong, the timing of rate cuts may be further delayed, and the extent of improvement will also be limited. Manifestation and digestion of tariff impact: If the inflation shock brought by US-China tariffs appears as expected in the third quarter and is gradually absorbed by the market, without triggering uncontrolled inflation expectations, then in the context of subsequent inflation data decline, the Fed’s policy space may reopen. But if the tariff shock exceeds expectations, it may extend the duration of high interest rates and tightening policies. Synchronicity of global central bank policies: Looking at the mid-term, if inflation in major economies is effectively controlled, central bank policies may gradually shift towards easing, forming a synergistic effect that collectively enhances the global liquidity environment. But if the recovery pace of major economies is uneven, policy divergence may intensify, making the path of global liquidity improvement more tortuous. Potential impact of “black swan” events: Escalation of geopolitical conflicts, unexpected financial risks in major economies, and other unforeseen “black swan” events may all have a significant impact on mid-term liquidity expectations. Market performance expectations: Looking to the mid-term, market liquidity is expected to gradually transition from the current tight state to marginal improvement, but the improvement process may be gradual and full of twists and turns. Risk assets such as Bitcoin may gain breathing and rebound opportunities during windows of improved liquidity expectations, but sustained upward movement still requires clearer signals of liquidity easing and fundamental support. Investors need to closely monitor the evolution of various macroeconomic data and policy signals, and flexibly adjust expectations. In summary, for the immediate future, the overall market liquidity environment remains unoptimistic, with short-term tight pressure being relatively certain, while mid-term improvement expectations exist, both the path and magnitude of this improvement are subject to considerable uncertainty. For the Bitcoin market, which is highly dependent on liquidity, this means a need to more cautiously assess risks and be fully prepared for market volatility. 3. Risk Appetite Analysis: Short-term Boost, Mid-term Uncertainty Still Exists Market risk appetite is another core driver affecting the prices of risk assets such as Bitcoin. Recently, a series of events have had complex effects on market sentiment, overall showing a pattern of short-term boost but significant mid-term uncertainty still existing. 3.1 Tariffs Better Than Expected in Short Term, Mid-term Uncertainty Still Exists The US-China tariff issue has consistently been a significant driver of global market sentiment, with any developments directly influencing investor risk appetite. In mid-May 2025, economic and trade talks between China and the US yielded an unexpected consensus on tariffs, with both sides agreeing to significantly reduce previously imposed high tariffs within the next 90 days. This breakthrough surpassed the expectations of many market analysts and has provided a clear boost to short-term market risk appetite.: Market sentiment quickly improved: After the news was announced, global capital markets reacted positively, with risk asset prices generally rising. Recession concerns eased: Previously, the market was concerned that escalating US-China trade frictions might lead the global economy into recession, or at least a “hard landing”. The easing of tariffs has reduced the probability of this extreme risk occurring. Corporate earnings expectations improved: High tariffs directly increase corporate operating costs and erode profitability. The reduction or suspension of tariffs helps improve the earnings outlook for companies in related industries, thereby boosting investor confidence in these companies’ stocks. However, although the easing of tariffs has brought positive effects in the short term, uncertainty still exists in the mid-term: Nature of the 90-day buffer period: The agreement reached has a 90-day buffer or suspension period. This means it is not a final solution, and both parties still need to negotiate further arrangements after 90 days. Should a more comprehensive, longer-term agreement is not reached by then, or if new friction points emerge, the tariff issue may escalate again, reversing the current optimistic sentiment. Structural contradictions still exist: Behind the US-China trade frictions are manifestations of deep-seated contradictions in economic structure, technological competition, geopolitics, and other aspects between the two countries. These structural contradictions are difficult to completely eliminate in the short term, which may lead to long-term and complex game-playing in the trade field. Therefore, while the tariff easing has indeed provided a significant short-term boost to market risk appetite, benefiting risk assets like Bitcoin, investors must remain vigilant regarding the uncertainty beyond the 90-day buffer period and the enduring, complex nature of US-China trade frictions. Any future developments concerning tariffs will continue to be a crucial disruptive factor influencing overall market risk appetite. 3.2 Geopolitical Situation Still Unclear, But Shows Signs of Improvement (Russia-Ukraine Conflict May End, India-Pakistan Conflict Temporary Ceasefire) Geopolitical risk is an important factor affecting global market risk appetite, and any escalation or easing of conflicts may trigger significant fluctuations in market sentiment. Recently, some positive signals have emerged in some major geopolitical conflict areas. Although the overall situation remains unclear, the marginal improvement helps repair short-term risk appetite. India-Pakistan conflict temporary ceasefire: The tensions between India and Pakistan that have attracted attention recently showed signs of easing in early May 2025. After a period of mutual accusations and escalating military actions, India and Pakistan have agreed to a temporary ceasefire under external mediation or their own considerations. Although this ceasefire is described by some media as a “fragile peace” and its durability remains to be seen, it undoubtedly alleviates the risk of a large-scale conflict erupting in the South Asian subcontinent in the short term. With the easing of international conflicts such as India-Pakistan, global risk aversion sentiment has receded somewhat, which is favorable for risk assets. Potential changes in the Russia-Ukraine conflict: The Russia-Ukraine conflict has lasted for several years and has had a profound impact on global energy prices, supply chains, and the geopolitical landscape. Following his assumption of office, President Trump has actively sought to promote a ceasefire between the two sides, and Russia has also conveyed signals of openness to such a possibility.. If there are any signs of substantive ceasefire negotiations, softening of positions by major participants, or progress in external mediation, it could significantly boost global market risk appetite. Conversely, if the conflict escalates again or spills over, it will quickly suppress market sentiment. Dynamics of conflicts in other regions: In addition to the above hotspots, the situation in other potential conflict points around the world (such as the Middle East, the Korean Peninsula, etc.) also needs attention. Any unexpected outbreak of conflict or escalation of tensions could rapidly change the landscape of global risk appetite. Overall, the recent temporary ceasefire in the India-Pakistan conflict is a positive development, helping to cool market risk aversion sentiment in the short term. However, the overall uncertainty of the global geopolitical situation remains high, the direction of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is still unclear, and other potential risk points still exist. Therefore, the impact of geopolitical factors on market risk appetite will be dynamic, and investors need to closely monitor relevant developments and be alert to any events that may cause sudden changes in market sentiment. 3.3 International Institutional Entry: Deploying Cryptocurrencies or Holding Bitcoin-Listed Companies The increasing participation of institutional investors serves as a crucial indicator of an asset class’s maturity and overall market confidence. In recent years, despite the dramatic fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market, international institutions’ interest in and deployment of cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, has not stopped, but rather shows a trend of continuous deepening and diversification. This trend provides a positive support for market risk appetite in the medium to long term. Continued growth in the scale of listed companies holding Bitcoin: An increasing number of publicly traded companies are integrating Bitcoin into their treasury reserves or making direct investments in the cryptocurrency. According to Bitwise data, in the first quarter of 2025, the total amount of Bitcoin held by globally publicly traded companies exceeded 688,000, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 16.11%, accounting for 3.28% of the total Bitcoin supply. CoinEdition points out that listed companies have purchased more than 196,000 Bitcoin so far in 2025, exceeding the new Bitcoin supply mined during the same period, reflecting the growing demand for corporate inflation hedging and strategic reserves. MicroStrategy and Tesla are typical representatives. The Bitcoin holding behavior of these listed companies not only directly increases the demand for Bitcoin, but also conveys to the market the institutional recognition of Bitcoin’s long-term value, thereby boosting overall market confidence. Potential interest from sovereign funds and pension funds: Although currently disclosed information is limited, market speculation suggests that some sovereign wealth funds and large pension funds are actively researching or making small-scale allocations to crypto assets. If more such large long-term investors enter the market in the future, it will have a more profound impact on the Bitcoin market. In summary, in the short term, market risk appetite has been boosted by tariff easing, marginal improvement in the geopolitical situation, and continued institutional entry, but in the mid-term, many uncertainty factors still exist, and market sentiment may still fluctuate with the progress of key events. For high-volatility assets like Bitcoin, their price performance will be highly dependent on the direction of overall market risk appetite, while positive changes at the policy level are laying the foundation for structural improvement in its risk appetite. 3.4 Risk Appetite Level Summary and Outlook In the short term (next 1-3 months), market risk appetite has been significantly boosted by factors such as the 90-day easing agreement on US-China tariffs, marginal improvement in the geopolitical situation such as the temporary ceasefire in the India-Pakistan conflict, and continued international institutional entry into cryptocurrencies. This optimistic sentiment is expected to continue in the short term, providing support for risk assets such as Bitcoin. However, the market still needs to be vigilant about technical corrections after the previous positive news is digested, as well as emotional fluctuations brought by sudden news. Looking at the mid-term (next 3-12 months), market risk appetite faces greater uncertainty, but also has the potential for structural improvement. Key variables influencing mid-term risk appetite include the trajectory of US-China trade relations after the 90-day tariff buffer period concludes, the evolution of major geopolitical risks such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the growth prospects and policy paths of major global economies. If these factors all develop in a positive direction, market risk appetite is expected to continue to improve; otherwise, it may come under pressure again. Whether institutional funds can continue to flow into the crypto market on a large scale will also be an important indicator measuring mid-term market confidence. 4. Policy Game and Fiscal Trends: Tax Cuts, Regulation, and Strategic Reserves’ Multidimensional Impact Beyond liquidity and risk appetite, policy-level games and changes are increasingly becoming key variables affecting the crypto market. This chapter will deeply analyze the Trump administration’s tax reduction policy, the dynamics of cryptocurrency strategic reserves at the US federal and state levels, the evolution of the stablecoin regulatory framework, and the latest progress in innovative policies such as US stock tokenization, exploring the potential impact paths of these policy variables on Bitcoin and other crypto assets. 4.1 “Big Beautiful Tax Plan” Reappears: Stimulus and Deficit Coexist President Trump, who took office in early 2025, is actively promoting his signature “Big Beautiful Tax Plan”, which will have a profound impact on macro liquidity and market risk appetite. In early May, the House Ways and Means Committee released part of the tax cut bill, with core content including making the 2017 tax cuts permanent and raising the child tax credit cap. At the same time, Senate Republicans passed a budget resolution in April, authorizing a total tax cut of $5 trillion over the next 10 years, including $1.5 trillion in new tax cuts, while raising the debt ceiling by $5 trillion. This transcendent fiscal stimulus plan is described by the Trump administration as injecting “rocket fuel” into the economy, aimed at stimulating economic growth. However, such a large-scale tax cut plan, accompanied by the reality that spending cuts are difficult to implement, will inevitably expand the fiscal deficit and need to be accompanied by raising the debt ceiling. According to authoritative institution estimates, the permanent extension of the 2017 tax reform alone will add about $4.6 trillion to the national debt over the next 10 years. The Trump administration has also proposed partially offsetting the cost of tax cuts by significantly increasing tariff revenue, but this strategy may have the side effects of suppressing trade activities and raising prices. Overall, this tax policy is biased towards easing in the short term, which is favorable for risk asset sentiment, but in the mid-term, concerns about fiscal sustainability will rise significantly. 4.2 Positive Signals of Crypto-Friendly Policies and Latest Progress in US Stock Tokenization Exploration Recently, the United States has shown some positive signals in cryptocurrency regulation and innovation, especially at the policy level and market practice level, providing new catalysts for the improvement of risk appetite. 4.2.1 Policy Environment Has Begun to Change and Legislative Attempts Are Being Made Although the comprehensive regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies in the US is still forming, some positive developments worth noting have emerged at the legislative level. The US Senate has made significant progress in stablecoin legislation. The much-anticipated “GENIUS Act” aims to provide a clear framework for stablecoin issuance and regulation. Reports as of mid-May 2025 indicate that related negotiations have reached consensus on approximately 90% of the terms, and a key Senate vote has already taken place around May 19, with the bill advancing. The core content of the bill includes Federal Reserve regulation for stablecoin issuers with assets exceeding $10 billion, while smaller institutions are regulated by state-level regulatory authorities, and requires all stablecoins to be 100% backed by high-quality liquid assets such as US dollar cash or short-term US Treasury bonds. Recent amendments also address strengthening rules for technology companies entering financial assets, enhancing consumer protection mechanisms, and reinforcing oversight of government officials’ related activities.. Although the House has previously passed a similar “STABLE Act”, and the Senate has once been hindered due to key Democratic senators withdrawing support, both parties are still actively promoting it. In addition, the Northern Mariana Islands has recently passed its regional stablecoin bill, allowing the issuance of the “Tinian Island Stablecoin” pegged to the US dollar. These legislative efforts, whether at the federal or local level, indicate that regulation is transitioning from pure observation or scattered enforcement actions towards providing clearer guidance and standardized development for the market, which is crucial for the long-term healthy development of the stablecoin market and the stability of overall crypto market risk appetite. In addition, discussions on digital asset market structure are also underway, aiming to balance innovation and investor protection. Although the process may be long and full of game-playing, these legislative efforts themselves indicate that regulation is transitioning from pure suppression to standardized development, which is crucial for the stability of long-term risk appetite. 4.2.2 US Stock Tokenization Exploration and Latest Progress US stock tokenization, that is, transforming traditional stocks into digital tokens (Security Token Offering, STO) through blockchain technology, is becoming a new emerging field of market attention. This innovation aims to improve the liquidity, accessibility, and trading efficiency of US stocks, reduce transaction costs, and may provide more convenient investment channels for global investors. According to the latest market dynamics, the exploration of US stock tokenization is accelerating: Regulatory attention and discussion: The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has shown continued attention to tokenization. For example, the SEC’s Special Working Group on Crypto Assets held a roundtable on tokenization issues on May 12, 2025, to explore its potential regulatory framework and market impact. SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw also delivered a keynote speech at the meeting, indicating that regulatory agencies are actively researching and evaluating this emerging field. Market participants’ active practice: Specific stock tokenization platforms are already emerging in the market. For example, MyStonks announced the launch of its on-chain US stock token market on May 10, 2025, and emphasized that its tokens are backed by 100% custodial assets, marking the gradual implementation of compliant US stock tokenization trading platforms. Entry of traditional financial institutions and infrastructure construction: Large traditional financial institutions have also begun to deploy in the tokenization field. JPMorgan announced at the Consensus conference in May 2025 that it has successfully completed settlement tests of tokenized US Treasury bonds on public blockchains in collaboration with Ondo Finance and Chainlink, and expressed a positive outlook for broader securities tokenization (including stocks). In addition, asset management company VanEck also announced on May 15, 2025, the launch of its tokenized US Treasury fund on multiple blockchain networks. Although these developments are not directly equivalent to US stock tokenization, they lay important infrastructure and practical experience for the overall asset tokenization, especially the on-chain circulation and settlement of securities assets, indicating that US stock tokenization may receive stronger technical and market support in the future. Growth expectations of market size: Industry research institutions have optimistic expectations for the market size of tokenized assets. For example, Markets Media’s report on May 14, 2025, cited research indicating that the tokenization scale of real-world assets (RWA) is expected to grow from about $0.6 trillion in 2025 to $18.9 trillion in 2030, with the tokenization of securities assets being an important component. Although US stock tokenization still faces challenges at the legal level (such as the issue of “equal rights for stocks and tokens”) and regulatory approval, its huge potential and the positive interaction between regulation and the market have attracted widespread attention from the industry. If regulatory policies can gradually become clear and support such innovation, the advancement of US stock tokenization will greatly expand the application scenarios of digital assets, and may attract more traditional financial institutions and investors to enter the crypto field, thereby significantly enhancing market risk appetite. Trend of incorporating crypto assets into traditional financial products: In addition to US stock tokenization, discussions on incorporating cryptocurrencies (especially Bitcoin) into traditional financial products (such as the 401(k) retirement plans mentioned by Coinbase CEO) are also heating up. If such integration is achieved, it will bring considerable incremental funds and a broader investor base to the crypto market, which is a great boost to market confidence and risk appetite. 4.3 Latest Progress of US Federal and State Bitcoin Strategic Reserves New regulations on “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” at the US federal level: Recently, there have been some discussions and legislative attempts at the US federal level regarding the establishment of a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve”, which has profound significance for the positioning of Bitcoin and institutional acceptance. According to a presidential action released by the White House on March 6, 2025, it mentioned the initiative to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve and US digital asset reserve, and pointed out that government Bitcoin deposited in the strategic Bitcoin reserve “shall not be sold and shall be maintained as a reserve asset of the United States”. Furthermore, relevant legislative proposals exist at the US Congressional level, such as the 2025 BITCOIN Act (S.954), which aims to formalize a strategic Bitcoin reserve and ensure transparent management of federal government Bitcoin holdings. These federal-level initiatives, even in their preliminary stages, significantly elevate Bitcoin’s status as a strategic asset, providing stronger policy expectations and legal endorsement for institutional investors to include it in their asset allocation strategies. US states have made uneven progress in incorporating Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies into reserve assets, but the overall trend is noteworthy. New Hampshire took the lead in early May 2025 by passing the landmark H.B. 302 bill, formally authorizing the establishment of a state-level strategic crypto reserve, allowing the state treasurer to invest up to 5% of state funds in digital assets including Bitcoin and precious metals, becoming the first state in the US to achieve such legislation. This breakthrough provides an important demonstration effect for other states. However, not all state attempts have been smooth sailing. For example, a similar bill in Arizona aimed at incorporating Bitcoin into state reserves was vetoed by the governor in May 2025. According to the latest statistics, about 26 states across the US are considering or have proposed legislative drafts related to Bitcoin reserves, but the final prospects of many bills remain unclear, and proposals in some states have also encountered resistance or been vetoed. Nevertheless, these positive explorations and legislative attempts at the state level, whether successful or not, reflect that the recognition of Bitcoin as a potential reserve asset is gradually deepening, and may pave the way for attracting more traditional institutional investors (such as pension funds, endowment funds, etc.) to pay attention to and allocate Bitcoin, although the process may be full of challenges. 4.4 Policy Game Summary and Outlook The current policy environment presents a complex and evolving dynamic, characterized by both positive catalysts and potential risk points. The Trump administration’s large-scale tax cut plan will boost market sentiment in the short term, but may cause liquidity fluctuations in the mid-term due to the expansion of the fiscal deficit; policy explorations regarding Bitcoin strategic reserves at the US federal and state levels, as well as the gradual clarification of the stablecoin regulatory framework, are paving the way for the institutionalization and mainstreaming of crypto assets; the advancement of innovative policies such as US stock tokenization provides new imagination space for the expansion of digital asset application scenarios. Investors should closely monitor the specific implementation of the tax cut bill, the final establishment and implementation of regulations related to strategic Bitcoin reserves, the improvement of the stablecoin regulatory framework, and the implementation of innovative policies such as US stock tokenization will be key variables affecting the structural changes in the crypto market. The outcomes of these policy deliberations will directly affect the direction of market liquidity and risk appetite, thereby having a profound impact on the price performance of Bitcoin and other crypto assets. Investors need to grasp the structural opportunities brought by long-term institutionalization trends while paying attention to short-term policy fluctuations. 5. Stablecoin Financial Management Strategies and Yield Comparison in the Current Environment In the face of the current macro and regulatory environment, stable yield-generating stablecoin financial management strategies are favored by investors. In the high interest rate background, some USD stablecoin financial solutions can already provide yields comparable to or even exceeding traditional markets, while the risk is relatively controllable. The following will introduce several recently hot stablecoin financial management strategies in the market, including their annualized yields, risk characteristics, and will be supplemented with charts comparing the yields of different strategies, helping readers with different risk preferences to choose optimally. 5.1 Backpack Backpack Exchange provides a one-stop trading and financial management platform, and its USD lending model has attracted attention recently. Backpack increases lending rates to give lenders extra returns . Currently, lending USD on Backpack can earn about 4.94% APY total return, including the basic market interest rate and 3.8% additional incentives. This yield is not particularly high compared to other platforms, but it excels in simplicity and transparency (essentially lending USDC to margin traders to earn interest). Backpack is suitable for low-risk preference users to obtain a rate slightly higher than money market funds. 5.2 Resolv Resolv Labs’ USR stablecoin strategy is a true Delta-neutral yield model. It hedges price risk through position combinations, while generating returns from funding rates of futures perpetual contracts and other risk-free arbitrage opportunities, then separating the returns to RLP token holders, keeping USR stable at 1:1. The current comprehensive annualized yield of this strategy is about 15% , part of which comes from incentives from protocols such as Pendle. The USR pool on the Base chain on the Pendle platform shows about 17.0% APY (including Pendle reward contributions), while the USR yield on Ethereum is slightly lower at about 9.4%. Overall, Resolv USR is a high-yield stablecoin, but it should be noted that it is backed by complex derivative strategies and incentive tokens. 5.3 Aave + Pendle This refers to depositing funds into lending protocols such as Aave to earn basic interest (e.g., depositing USDC to get 4%), and then tokenizing future interest through Pendle for trading, to lock in higher fixed rates or mine Pendle incentives. Currently, products on the Pendle platform that lock in Aave/Compound interest rates, such as CUSDC, CUSDT pools, have annualized rates of around 11%. For example, Compound’s USD stablecoin yield token CUSDO in the Pendle pool has an APY of about 11.5%. This means that through Pendle, users have the opportunity to amplify Aave’s 4-5% interest rate to nearly double digits (part of the return comes from Pendle platform rewards). The advantage is that it is still based on the interest of top lending protocols, with high security; the disadvantage is that it requires accepting Pendle token floating rewards and a certain operational threshold. All things considered, this strategy can currently achieve ~10% annualized returns . 5.4 Falcon Finance Falcon has launched the USDf (sUSDf) synthetic stablecoin strategy. Its model is to stake various assets to mint USDf, and through protocol design, USDf holders earn high yields. According to reports, USDf staking can provide over 10% APY . Falcon has recently integrated with Pendle, incorporating sUSDf into Pendle pools, further increasing on-chain yield rates. The Falcon strategy offers tempting returns, but it should be noted that USDf is an emerging synthetic asset, and systemic risk and collateral quality need to be evaluated. 5.5 Coinshift csUSDL The csUSDL launched by Coinshift is an institutional-grade stablecoin yield token . It is based on USDL issued by Paxos (100% backed by short-term US Treasury bonds and cash), with on-chain lending interest from the Morpho protocol added on top. Users holding csUSDL can automatically increase their balance daily without the need for locking or staking. Since the underlying assets are T-Bills and Aave lending, csUSDL returns mainly come from US Treasury bond interest (currently about 5%) plus DeFi interest, with a current total APY of around 10% . Its advantages are high transparency, security (supported by regulated assets + smart contract audits), and liquidity supported through Curve and others. Its disadvantage is that the yield rate is not outstanding but still better than traditional bank interest rates. 6. Conclusion and Investment Outlook: Multidimensional Impact of Liquidity, Risk Appetite, Policy and Investment Strategy Combining the four dimensions of liquidity, risk appetite, policy game and investment strategy, we make the following judgment on the Bitcoin market outlook: In the short term (next 1-3 months): The Bitcoin market may show a pattern of intensified volatility or even downward pressure. On one hand, the significantly tight liquidity expectation, especially the potential shock from the unwinding of yen carry trades, will limit its upside space; on the other hand, the improvement in risk appetite in the short term may provide some support, but it is difficult to completely offset the negative impact of tightening liquidity. The Trump administration’s tax cut policy, while boosting market sentiment in the short term, could introduce liquidity shocks in the third quarter due to potential US debt ceiling issues and the need for Treasury General Account (TGA) replenishment. The market may see a correction after consolidation at high levels, or experience violent fluctuations within a range. Investors need to closely monitor the release of various macroeconomic data, policy signals, and the latest developments in tariffs and geopolitical situations, operate flexibly, and pay high attention to risk control. In the mid-term (next 3-12 months): The direction of the Bitcoin market will be more uncertain, with both opportunities and challenges. If global liquidity can achieve marginal improvement as expected, and market risk appetite continues to warm up due to the positive resolution of various uncertainty factors (especially the positive implementation of regulatory policies and the deepening of institutional adoption), then Bitcoin is expected to usher in a new round of upward trend. Policy explorations regarding Bitcoin strategic reserves at the US federal and state levels, as well as the gradual clarification of the stablecoin regulatory framework, are paving the way for the institutionalization and mainstreaming of crypto assets; the advancement of innovative policies such as US stock tokenization provides new imagination space for the expansion of digital asset application scenarios. However, if liquidity tightening exceeds expectations, or frequent risk events lead to a sharp rise in risk aversion sentiment, Bitcoin may also face significant correction pressure. Key points to watch: In the coming period, investors should focus on the following aspects: The Fed’s policy path: including interest rate decisions, the end point and method of QT, and public statements by Powell and other officials. US inflation and employment data: These are the core basis affecting Fed decisions. Subsequent progress of US-China tariff negotiations : The direction after the 90-day buffer period is crucial. Evolution of major global geopolitical risks : Especially the Russia-Ukraine conflict, India-Pakistan conflict, and Middle East situation. Changes in the US TGA account and debt ceiling issues : The potential impact on short-term liquidity cannot be ignored. Bank of Japan’s monetary policy and yen carry trade dynamics : Direct impact on global liquidity allocation and US dollar liquidity. Progress of global cryptocurrency regulatory policies : Especially legislative and enforcement dynamics in major markets such as the US, including the progress of regulations related to “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” and the implementation of the stablecoin regulatory framework. Scale and continuity of institutional fund inflows into the crypto market : Especially data on Bitcoin spot ETFs and actual allocations of sovereign and state-level reserves. Specific implementation of Trump’s tax cut policy : Including its impact path on fiscal deficit, debt ceiling, and market liquidity. Development and innovation of the stablecoin market : Including clarification of the regulatory framework, evolution of yield products, and changes in institutional participation. In summary, the Bitcoin market in 2025 will trudge forward in the fog of macroeconomics and the game of multiple policies. Investors need to maintain a high degree of vigilance and flexibility, deeply research market fundamentals, rationally evaluate risks, and make prudent investment decisions. Finding certainty in uncertainty will be the key to investing in Bitcoin in the coming period. At the same time, stablecoin financial management strategies also provide investors with an effective way to obtain stable returns amid market volatility, which deserves appropriate weight in asset allocation. About HTX Research HTX Research is the dedicated research arm of HTX Group, responsible for conducting in-depth analyses, producing comprehensive reports, and delivering expert evaluations across a broad spectrum of topics, including cryptocurrency, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends. Committed to providing data-driven insights and strategic foresight, HTX Research plays a pivotal role in shaping industry perspectives and supporting informed decision-making within the digital asset space. Through rigorous research methodologies and cutting-edge analytics, HTX Research remains at the forefront of innovation, driving thought leadership and fostering a deeper understanding of evolving market dynamics. Connect with HTX Research Team: research@htx-inc.com References https://www.cmegroup.com/cn-s/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JSyRLObug8wlwIg7d9w-Bg https://sc.macromicro.me https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WDTGAL https://bitwiseinvestments.com/crypto-market-insights/crypto-market-review-q1-2025 https://backpack.exchange https://resolv.xyz https://falcon.finance https://docs.coinshift.xyz/coinshift-assets/csusdl The post HTX Research：The New Macroeconomic Landscape and Bitcoin Outlook: An Analysis of Liquidity, Risk Appetite, Policy Dynamics, and Investment Strategy first appeared on HTX Square .
Bitcoin has surged more than 47% from its recent lows, hitting a new all-time high in May as holding patterns show strong accumulation. Unlike in past market cycles, long-term holders are not in a hurry to sell. On-chain data reveals a notable lack of aggressive selling despite substantial profit potential, indicating strong conviction among long-term investors and little structural drag on the uptrend. Real Vision analyst Jamie Coutts stated in a May 28 X post that the LTH-SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicator is one of the most obvious indicators of this resilience. Although this metric peaked at 17 in 2017, 8 in 2021, and 4.3 in early 2024, it is currently only at 2.1. While MVRV and NUPL measure the potential for profit-taking, LTH-SOPR captures when that potential is realized—when long-term holders actually move coins to lock in gains or cut losses. At previous tops, the signal has been clear: LTH-SOPR hit 17 in 2017, 8 in 2021, and 4.3 in… pic.twitter.com/KM5ENDNHa6 — Jamie Coutts CMT (@Jamie1Coutts) May 28, 2025 This shows that LTHs are realizing fewer profits than they did during previous bull runs, even with Bitcoin’s ( BTC ) recent surge. Although there will inevitably be some re-distribution in response to rising prices, Coutts stressed that the current muted activity indicates long-term confidence is still strong. You might also like: Bitcoin faces key support test at $108k amid $211m in liquidations: analysts This view is supported by Glassnode data . Accumulation patterns can be seen in almost every wallet type. Alongside larger cohorts such as those with 100–1,000 BTC and 1,000–10,000 BTC, wallets with less than 1 BTC have also returned to accumulation mode. The only group that still exhibits net selling behavior is the 1–10 BTC group. Further, profit-taking during Bitcoin’s latest breakout has been surprisingly restrained. Glassnode noted that when BTC surpassed $100,000 last December, realized profit volumes exceeded $2.1 billion. In contrast, the most recent rally to a new high saw just $1 billion in realized profits, despite higher prices. When $BTC hit all-time high yesterday, total profit-taking volume was around $1.00B – less than half the amount realized when #Bitcoin first crossed $100K last December, which hit $2.10B. Despite a higher price, profit realization was far more muted. pic.twitter.com/GtZXU23yO9 — glassnode (@glassnode) May 22, 2025 Additionally, coin age data demonstrates that older coins are still mostly inactive. Just 13.4% of active supply is older than six months as of May 2025, down from 24.7% in December 2024. This decline indicates that while newer participants provide short-term momentum, older holders are likely sitting tight. The bullish outlook is supported by institutional interest. Over $5.3 billion has been invested in spot Bitcoin ETFs in the last month, as per SoSoValue data , and U.S.-listed funds currently oversee over $40 billion in total assets. Meanwhile, corporate accumulation keeps growing. Last week, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) increased its holdings to 576,230 BTC by purchasing an additional 7,390 BTC. The Japanese company Metaplanet has also boosted its holdings to more than 7, 000 BTC. Over 30,000 BTC is now being acquired each month by public companies collectively. Read more: Trump Media to buy $2.5b Bitcoin, creating one of crypto’s largest corporate treasuries
The post Cardano Price News: Will ADA Cross $1 on SEC Verdict Day? ETF Approval Odds Now at 71% appeared first on Coinpedia Fintech News Cardano has been trading in a tight range this week, but a breakout could follow soon. With the SEC’s big ETF decision set for tomorrow, traders are hopeful that this could spark a bullish move for ADA. The odds of an ADA ETF approval have surged to 71% on Tuesday on Polymarket , the highest since April 20. This comes ahead of a key May 29 deadline for the SEC to decide on Grayscale’s proposed Cardano ETF. Grayscale's Cardano $ADA ETF deadline for decision is this week. The SEC must approve, deny, or delay it by this Thursday, May 29. Do you think it'll get approval this week? pic.twitter.com/84o9lyLksJ — Cardanians (CRDN) (@Cardanians_io) May 26, 2025 The SEC has up to 240 days to review Grayscale’s spot ADA ETF filing, with the final deadline set for October 22. According to the official acknowledgement on February 24, it can delay its decision multiple times. So, a delay could be more likely instead of rejection or approval. ADA Holds Steady, ETF Optimism Peaks at 71% In mid-April, the chances of approval before the end of 2025 were only 37% on Polymarket. But the odds now over 70% show that traders are optimistic even after the SEC delayed XRP ETFs recently. Eric Balchunas, ETF analyst at Bloomberg, says there’s a 75% chance the ETF will launch this year. He also thinks the SEC might approve several crypto ETFs as soon as this summer. XRP, Solana (SOL), and Dogecoin (DOGE) are also in the ETF spotlight, with multiple spot filings in play. Polymarket shows strong odds for approvals before 2025 – 84% for XRP, 83% for SOL, and 67% for DOGE. Cardano’s Ecosystem Trails A key hurdle Cardano is facing is its ecosystem underperformance. The network currently supports only 48 DeFi apps, holds $443 million in total value locked, and has only $31 million in stablecoins. However, newer chains like Unichain and Sonic are outpacing Cardano by a wide margin. Technicals Signal Bullish Setup for ADA Cardano’s technicals are bullish as the weekly chart is flashing bullish signals. It continues to trade above the 100-week moving average, a key long-term support level. If the momentum holds, it could retest last year’s high of $1.207. If it breaks out above that level, then $2 may be next. It is currently trading at $0.7524. RSI is neutral at 51, but MACD and momentum indicators are slightly bearish, which shows short-term weakness. But long-term trends 30-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day EMAs remain bullish with strong long-term support. The decision tomorrow could be a major catalyst for ADA’s next move. An approval from the SEC could open the door to institutional money and send ADA soaring past $0.84, kicking off a fresh rally.
On May 28th, COINOTAG reports substantial developments in the cryptocurrency sector, highlighting a remarkable $385.4 million net inflow into US Bitcoin spot ETFs, as per data from Farside Investors. This
As a prominent player in the crypto landscape, Solana demonstrates dynamic resilience despite recent market fluctuations. SOL witnessed a slight dip in its funding rate, indicating potential short-term corrections. Nonetheless,
COINOTAG News reports on May 28th that recent data from Farside Investors highlights a significant development in the crypto market, with a notable net inflow of Ethereum spot ETFs in
Pi Network continues to trade sideways as market participants brace for a massive token unlock that could introduce new selling pressure. Pi Coin ( PI ) is trading at $0.7504 at press time, up just 0.2% over the last day. In the past seven days, the token has fluctuated between $0.7406 and $0.8586, and it is still 74% below its peak of $2.99 in February. Despite recent price stagnation, trading volume has increased. Over the past 24 hours, Pi Network has recorded over $145 million in volume, up 16.2% from the previous day, indicating renewed but cautious interest among market participants. Yet the focus remains on a wave of upcoming token unlocks. On May 26, 10 million PI were released, followed by 12 million on May 27, as per Pi Scan data . The largest near-term unlock is set for May 28, when 15 million tokens will enter circulation, marking the biggest single-day release in the current 30-day window. You might also like: Pi Network price could miss out on the crypto bull run as insiders sell Looking ahead, another 263 million tokens will be unlocked in June, 233 million in July, and 132 million in August. On-chain data indicates that more holders are moving their tokens to centralized exchanges, which raises the possibility of more sell-side pressure at a time when unlocks seem to be increasing supply. Still, Pi Network is attempting to build long-term value. The recently launched $100 million Pi Network Ventures fund is designed to support AI, gaming, fintech, and e-commerce startups, creating potential real-world use cases for the token. Successful decentralized application launches and broader adoption could help revive buying interest over time. From a technical standpoint, Pi is trading in a narrow Bollinger Band range, with the lower band at $0.53 and the upper band at $1.15. Although the direction is still unknown, the price’s mid-range position suggests low volatility and a coiled setup, which frequently precedes a breakout. PI price analysis. Credit: crypto.news Momentum indicators are largely neutral. The relative strength index, which is at 48.36, indicates a lack of clear direction, while the stochastic RSI, which is at 18.16, indicates short-term oversold conditions. The MACD has shown bearish momentum by crossing below its signal line at 0.0047. The majority of short- and medium-term moving averages are above the current price and continue to act as resistance. Strong volume and a breakout above $0.85 might pave the way for a move to $1.00 and possibly $1.15. In a bearish scenario, if the $0.74–$0.75 range is not held, Pi may return to the psychological level of $0.70, with additional risk reaching $0.65 or even the lower Bollinger Band at $0.53. If there is consistent selling pressure, the massive supply overhang from impending unlocks could accelerate this decline. Read more: Interview | Inside Pi Network’s $100m fund for real-world utility
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