Pi Coin continues its relentless decline despite the broader cryptocurrency market experiencing unprecedented gains, with Bitcoin reaching new highs of $118,000 and Ethereum breaking $3,000 . The token that once attracted millions of followers now trades at $0.465 , dangerously close to its all-time low of $0.400 . Even the recent Pi2Day celebration failed to inject momentum into the struggling altcoin, which has suffered a devastating 26.4% decline over the past two weeks. The technical indicators paint an increasingly bearish picture for Pi Network. The cryptocurrency has established a negative correlation of -0.27 with Bitcoin, meaning it moves in the opposite direction to the market leader. Technical Outlook: Pi Network Still Bearish – But a Breakout Could Flip the Script Pi Network remains locked in a firm downtrend, trading within a descending channel that has defined price action since its post-launch peak. Each rally attempt has failed at the upper boundary of the channel, reinforcing it as a strong resistance zone. Source: TradingView The volume profile also shows muted participation, with declining volume throughout the downtrend, suggesting that buyer conviction remains low. Despite that, the RSI has climbed to 55.46 – a neutral but improving signal that could indicate momentum is starting to shift. While the current setup still leans bearish, a confirmed breakout above the descending channel could trigger a sharp reversal. In that scenario, PI could target key resistance levels at $0.98, $1.38, and $1.67 – with the potential for a sustained recovery if bullish momentum builds. Best Wallet Offers Superior Value in Current Market Conditions While Pi Coin struggles with declining momentum, Best Wallet is quickly emerging as a smarter alternative for investors seeking utility and growth. Its latest update added full Bitcoin support and multi-chain functionality, making it a strong contender in the current market rally. The $BEST token unlocks reduced fees, presale access, airdrops, and staking rewards, while users can also earn by completing quests and exploring GameFi. Best Wallet offers top-tier security, fiat on/off ramps, and upcoming features like a crypto debit card and portfolio tools. A standout feature is “Upcoming Tokens,” which lets users discover new crypto projects before they hit the public market. With real utility and a growing ecosystem, $BEST is one of the most promising presales to watch right now. To find out more, you can visit the official Best Wallet website here . The post Pi Coin Price Prediction: Crashing Toward All-Time Low – Is PI Going to $0? appeared first on Cryptonews .
In the fast-paced world of global finance, macro-economic shifts can send ripples across every asset class, from traditional stocks and bonds to the volatile cryptocurrency markets. A recent unexpected development in the German budget has certainly demonstrated this, triggering a significant re-evaluation of positions and sparking intense debate among analysts. Understanding such pivotal moments is not just for forex traders; it’s crucial for anyone navigating the broader financial landscape, as these shifts often precede broader market trends that can impact crypto valuations and liquidity. Unpacking the German Budget Surprise: What Happened? Germany, often seen as the economic engine of the Eurozone, recently delivered a fiscal announcement that caught many by surprise. The details of this budget revelation were not merely technical adjustments; they signaled a deeper recalibration of the nation’s financial priorities and spending capabilities. Here’s a breakdown of the key elements: Unexpected Fiscal Tightening: The budget revealed a more constrained fiscal outlook than anticipated, driven by constitutional debt brakes and unforeseen economic pressures. This implied less government spending or more austerity measures going forward. Impact on Future Growth Projections: Such a shift in fiscal policy can influence economic growth forecasts. Less government stimulus might temper expansion, affecting businesses and consumer confidence within Germany and, by extension, the broader Eurozone. Implications for European Stability: Germany’s fiscal health is paramount for the stability of the entire Eurozone. Any perceived weakness or unexpected policy shift can have cascading effects on other member states, particularly those with higher debt burdens. This surprise immediately set the stage for a dramatic shift in market dynamics, challenging established positions and forcing a fresh look at economic forecasts. How Did Investor Sentiment React to Germany’s Fiscal Shift? The immediate aftermath of the German budget news saw a palpable shift in investor sentiment . Markets, which thrive on predictability and clear policy signals, reacted with a mix of caution and rapid repositioning. The initial reaction was characterized by: Euro Volatility: The euro, being directly exposed to German economic health, experienced immediate fluctuations. While some saw the fiscal discipline as a long-term positive, the short-term uncertainty created selling pressure. Risk-Off Tendencies: In moments of economic uncertainty, investors often move towards safer assets. This budget surprise, by adding a layer of unpredictability, prompted some flight to safety, impacting riskier assets globally. Reassessment of Eurozone Prospects: Analysts began re-evaluating the growth trajectory for the entire Eurozone, given Germany’s central role. This directly influenced perceptions of the region’s economic resilience and attractiveness for investment. This change in sentiment was particularly noteworthy because it intersected with a prevailing market trend: the widespread shorting of the US Dollar. Understanding the Pre-Existing Landscape of USD Shorts Before the German budget surprise, the global financial landscape was marked by a significant accumulation of USD shorts . This meant that a large number of traders and institutions were betting against the US Dollar, anticipating its decline. Several factors fueled this trend: Anticipation of Fed Rate Cuts: Expectations that the US Federal Reserve would soon begin cutting interest rates made holding the dollar less attractive compared to other currencies. Improving Global Growth Outlook: A narrative of recovering global growth, particularly outside the US, encouraged investors to allocate capital to other regions, reducing demand for the dollar. Yield Differentials: As other central banks maintained or even hinted at higher rates, the yield advantage of the dollar diminished, prompting a rotation out of the currency. This substantial short positioning in the USD created a fragile equilibrium. Any significant external shock had the potential to trigger a sharp reversal, and the German budget surprise proved to be just such a catalyst. The Forex Market’s Tumultuous Response: A Short Squeeze Unfolds? When the German budget news broke, its interaction with the heavy USD shorts created a dynamic and volatile situation in the Forex market . Here’s how it played out: Initial Euro Weakness: The immediate uncertainty surrounding the German budget initially put pressure on the Euro. USD Strength Reversal: However, as investors processed the news, a new narrative began to emerge. The German fiscal constraint, while potentially challenging for the Eurozone, simultaneously highlighted the relative strength and stability of the US economy and its fiscal framework. This prompted a re-evaluation of the ‘short USD’ trade. The Short Squeeze Mechanism: As some traders began to unwind their USD short positions (buying back dollars), this buying pressure pushed the dollar higher. This upward movement triggered stop-loss orders for other short positions, forcing more buying and creating a ‘short squeeze’ effect, where the dollar rapidly gained strength against major currencies. EUR/USD Dynamics: The EUR/USD pair, a bellwether for global currency sentiment, saw significant movement. While the Euro faced headwinds from domestic German news, the broader dollar strength, fueled by the unwinding of shorts, often dominated the pair’s direction, leading to a complex interplay of forces. This episode underscored the interconnectedness of global financial markets and how seemingly localized events can have far-reaching currency implications. Broader Implications for the Eurozone Economy and Beyond The ramifications of the German budget surprise extend far beyond immediate currency fluctuations, deeply influencing the outlook for the entire Eurozone economy . Germany’s fiscal stance is a cornerstone of the bloc’s stability, and any shifts reverberate across its members: Aspect Pre-Budget Outlook Post-Budget Implications Fiscal Space Perceived flexibility for stimulus Reduced room for government spending; potential austerity Growth Projections Moderate, potentially improving Risk of slower growth due to less fiscal support ECB Policy Pressure for rate cuts Complexifies ECB’s inflation fight; potential for divergent paths Regional Stability Strong German anchor Increased scrutiny on sovereign debt of weaker members A more fiscally constrained Germany could mean less support for struggling Eurozone members, potentially increasing economic divergence within the bloc. This also complicates the European Central Bank’s (ECB) efforts to manage inflation and stimulate growth, as monetary policy alone might not be enough to counter fiscal headwinds. The implications stretch globally, as a weaker Eurozone could dampen overall global demand, affecting export-dependent economies worldwide. Challenges and Opportunities Ahead: Navigating the New Normal This sudden shift in the financial landscape presents both challenges and opportunities for investors and traders across all asset classes, including the burgeoning crypto space. Challenges: Increased Volatility: Uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy and its impact on growth can lead to heightened market volatility, making precise trading difficult. Policy Divergence: The potential for diverging economic policies between major blocs (e.g., Eurozone vs. US) can create complex trading environments. Risk Reassessment: Investors must continually reassess their risk exposure, as macro factors can quickly change the attractiveness of various assets. Opportunities: Strategic Repositioning: For agile investors, these shifts offer opportunities to reposition portfolios, potentially benefiting from new trends in currency pairs or commodity prices. Diversification: The importance of a well-diversified portfolio, including exposure to different currencies and asset classes, becomes even more critical. Understanding Inter-Market Correlations: Deeper analysis of how events in one market (e.g., German budget) affect others (e.g., USD shorts, crypto) can yield significant insights. Actionable Insights for Navigating the Shifting Tides How can you, as an informed participant in the financial markets, best respond to these developments? Here are some actionable insights: Stay Informed on Macro Data: Beyond headline news, delve into underlying economic indicators, central bank statements, and fiscal policy announcements from major economies like Germany and the US. Monitor Currency Pair Dynamics: Pay close attention to major currency pairs, especially EUR/USD, as they often reflect broader shifts in investor sentiment and global capital flows. Assess Risk Exposure: Regularly review your portfolio’s exposure to currency risk and interest rate risk. Consider hedging strategies if appropriate. Consider Relative Strength: In an environment of shifting sentiment, focus on the relative strength of economies and their currencies rather than absolute performance. Long-Term Perspective: While short-term volatility is inevitable, maintaining a long-term investment perspective can help weather temporary storms and capitalize on fundamental shifts. Compelling Summary: The Ripple Effect of German Fiscal Policy The recent German budget surprise serves as a potent reminder of how deeply interconnected global financial markets truly are. What began as a domestic fiscal announcement in Germany quickly rippled through the global economy, profoundly impacting investor sentiment and triggering significant movements in the Forex market , particularly among those holding USD shorts . This event has not only reshaped the immediate outlook for the Eurozone economy but also underscored the critical importance of monitoring macro-economic developments. In an era where even seemingly localized policy decisions can trigger a domino effect across currencies and asset classes, including the volatile crypto market, vigilance and adaptability remain paramount for all investors. Understanding these complex interactions is key to navigating the ever-evolving financial landscape successfully. To learn more about the latest Forex market trends, explore our article on key developments shaping the US Dollar and Eurozone economy liquidity.
Bitcoin continues to outshine traditional equities as the S&P 500 hits record highs but falls short against BTC’s stellar 2025 performance. Institutional interest in Bitcoin ETFs is surging, signaling a
Wall Street's major averages were mostly lower on Friday, while the Nasdaq Composite ( COMP:IND ) tilted both sides of the flat line as President Donald Trump slapped a 35% tariff on Canada and warned of further hikes if Ottawa retaliated. Market participants also took a bit of a breather after back-to-back record closes for the benchmark S&P 500 index ( SP500 ). The S&P ( SP500 ) was last -0.3% in afternoon trade, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite ( COMP:IND ) was flat, and the blue-chip Dow Jones ( DJI ) was last -0.6% . Trump announced on Thursday a 35% tariff on Canada and warned about further hikes if Ottawa decided to respond. These levies are expected to take effect Aug. 1, according to a letter posted on his Truth Social account. In addition, Trump said he would impose blanket tariffs of 15-20% on other remaining countries. “Stocks are not quite desensitized to tariff headlines just yet. We are still seeing knee-jerk reactions to negative trade headlines. Volatility is an opportunity for investors who are still too exposed to cash,” said Michael Landsberg, CIO at Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management. Over in the bond market, the 10-year Treasury yield ( US10Y ) rose 7 basis points to 4.42%, while the 2-year yield ( US2Y ) rose 2 basis points to 3.91%. On Friday's economic calendar, the monthly Treasury Statement budget showed an unexpected surplus of $27B in June, when it was expected to be in deficit by $41.5B. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) surged to a new all-time high on Friday, fueled by growing institutional interest and supportive signals from the Trump administration. The focus will shift slightly from tariffs and trade developments to the second quarter U.S. earnings season, which kicks off next week with reports from major banks. "We believe second quarter earnings will be good, but not as good as first quarter. Much of the second quarter was marked with tariff and trade issues, and that may have caused some dislocations in earnings for certain industries as their customers may have been in a holding pattern," said Landsberg. More on markets: Back-To-Back Bulls Crowding Out The Private Sector How I'm Managing My Portfolio In Response To The "Big Beautiful Bill" & Tariff Uncertainty
Dow Jones fell on Trump’s threats against more countries, tech stocks fared better, while the crypto market saw a bull run. Stocks are down as Trump once again escalated trade tensions, while crypto is doing great. On Friday, July 11, the Dow Jones was down 286 points, or 0.64%, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.30%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq lost just 0.08% as crypto and tech stocks did relatively better. Dow Jones Industrial Average heatmap on July 11 | Source: TipRanks Interestingly, Bitcoin (BTC) was much more resilient than the stock market. The token reached a new all-time high for a third day in a row at $118,856, and rallied 4% in 24 hours. Altcoins such as Ethereum (ETH) outperformed, with XRP (XRP) , Dogecoin (DOGE) , and Cardano (ADA) posting double-digit gains. You might also like: Russian oil companies rely on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins for trades with China and India: report Trump threatens new tariffs on Canada Investors were concerned about the effects of President Donald Trump’s latest threats against Canada. Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian goods, which currently face a 25% rate. Still, some goods will be exempt, including oil, gas, and potash. These key industrial goods are currently regulated under the USMCA agreement and are subject to a 10% tariff. Canada is one of the largest U.S. trading partners and a key exporter of energy and raw materials to the country. You might also like: How falling crude oil prices could boost the crypto market In other tariff news, reports surfaced that Vietnam’s government was surprised by Trump’s 20% tariff announcement against the country. According to Bloomberg , the country is hoping to bring the rate lower, possibly in the 10-15% range. Vietnam is a major exporter to the U.S., with the third-largest trade surplus with the country. Over the years, it has taken over several export industries to the U.S. from China, with electronics, textiles, and footwear as major categories. Previous administrations saw this move as an advantage, as Vietnam is more geopolitically aligned with the U.S. than China. Read more: Stablecoins and oil are Trump’s macro weapons, says DeVere CEO
Democrats led by Rep Maxine Waters and Rep Stephen Lynch are set to start “Anti-Crypto Corruption Week” to block the GENIUS Act, CLARITY Act, and Anti-CBDC bill. Their concern is that the bills will pave the way for what they call Trump’s crypto corruption. Maxine Waters, the top Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee and ranking member of the subcommittee on digital assets, and Stephen Lynch have announced that the rally will begin next week. 🚨NEW: To counter the GOP’s “Crypto Week,” Reps. @RepMaxineWaters & @RepStephenLynch are launching “Anti-Crypto Corruption Week,” rallying Dems to block the GENIUS Act, CLARITY Act & Anti-CBDC bill — warning they pave the way for what they call Trump’s crypto corruption. pic.twitter.com/kpT6JpTEKx — Eleanor Terrett (@EleanorTerrett) July 11, 2025 This comes after Republicans announced a crypto week starting on July 14th. The two lawmakers will lead Democrats in opposition to Republicans’ efforts to jam through what they call “the House three dangerous pieces” of crypto legislation. According to Maxine, the bills lack the urgently needed consumer protections and national security guardrails. According to them, “the Republican-led ‘CLARITY Act and the Senate’s ‘GENIUS Act will expose our financial stability, national security, and consumer protections to greater risk.” Democrats call Republicans cowards Since the year began, Trump has pushed initiatives that support the crypto industry. From the leaders he has chosen to the support shown by publicly rooting for the assets. He has also been involved in the industry by launching companies and crypto coins. Maxine Waters says that the bills would make Congress complicit in Trump’s unprecedented crypto scam. She continued that Trump’s goal is to personally enrich himself, his entire family, and the billionaire insiders in his cabinet at the cost of investors. In addition, these bills serve as a brazen stamp of approval for the blatant abuse of power. According to reports, Trump has amassed $1.2 billion from the industry. Maxine Waters said, “Just days after passing one of the most egregious billionaire giveaways in American history and ripping basic needs away from American families. Republicans are at it again. They are doubling down by fast-tracking a dangerous package of crypto legislation through Congress.” Dems also accused Republicans of being too cowardly to stand up to the President. Congressman Lynch said, “My Republican colleagues are eager to continue doing the bidding for the crypto industry while conveniently ignoring the vulnerabilities and opportunities for abuse that exist in crypto.” To that end, Democrats affirmed that they are not afraid and will spend this week reminding the public of the true cost of this corruption. “Our message is clear: we will not allow the financial system to become a vehicle for self-dealing, lawlessness, and abuse of power. The stakes for consumers, investors, and our democracy could not be higher.” Dems say China is ahead because of CBDCs Stephen Lynch says the ‘Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act’ will shackle US Government research while giving China another opportunity to capitalize on a new technology. This is because of crypto products’ volatile and risky nature and the lack of investor protections. Meanwhile, China is creating an international operations center in Shanghai for the digital yuan, e-CNY. China envisions a “multipolar” currency system where multiple currencies support the global economy, China’s central bank chief Pan Gongsheng said. Waters pointed at Republicans, saying, “The same Republicans who rail against a government-backed digital dollar in the name of ‘freedom’ are now rushing to hand over the keys to Americans’ financial future to Trump’s illegal and corrupt crypto empire.” On March 6, Republican Representative Tom Emmer proposed the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act. This bill aims to stop the Federal Reserve, the US’s central bank, from issuing a CBDC. The House Committee on Financial Services said that the Blockchain Association, the Digital Chamber of Commerce, and a number of banking lobbies are among the groups that back the bill. KEY Difference Wire helps crypto brands break through and dominate headlines fast
The post Bitcoin Experiences Impact of a $12B Short Squeeze: Here is How to Prepare for Imminent Crypto Summer appeared first on Coinpedia Fintech News Bitcoin (BTC) price has closed above a crucial psychological barrier around $109k, which had held since December 2024 to date. The flagship coin surged over 3.8 percent in the past 24 hours to reach a new all-time high (ATH) of about $118,885, which was set during the mid-London session on Friday, July 11. Following the sustained bullish sentiment, heavy crypto liquidations, amounting to over $1.2 billion, were recorded in the past 24 hours. Out of the entire crypto liquidations today, short trades amounted to over $1 billion, whereby BTC’s share was around $567 million. As Coinpedia had previously reported, Bitcoin’s cumulative short liquidation leveraged trades entered at around $112k amounted to $12 billion. With Bitcoin price having surged above $118k, a short squeeze has been triggered and the sellers have now turned bullish. Top Reasons Why Bitcoin Price Has More Upside Momentum Bitcoin will continue to experience bullish sentiment in the coming months, largely fueled by rising demand from institutional investors. For instance, the U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded the highest cash inflow, of about $1.18 billion in the past few months. BlackRock’s IBIT has led in the net Daily Cash Inflow, whereby it currently has more than $80 billion in net cash under management. According to data compiled by BitcoinTreasuries , Strategy and Metaplanet have continued to lead dozens of companies holding BTC in their respective treasuries. BTC price will continue to experience bullish sentiment fueled by the growing global money supply. Furthermore, more countries are forming alliances to ditch the U.S. dollar, as observed with the BRICS movement, thus weakening the greenback amid its ongoing depreciation. How to Trade Crypto Summer During a crypto summer, almost the entire crypto market experiences bullish sentiment fueled by sustained optimism and growth. Capital rotation happens from the largest crypto projects to the smallest by market cap. From a technical analysis standpoint, considering oversold crypto tokens, including memecoin, with immense potential to disrupt the web3 space will likely offer higher returns. Moreover, the cryptocurrency market has a similar vibe in 2025 to the crypto summer of 2017, which resulted in one of the largest bull runs ever recorded. The narrative is bolstered by the fact that the U.S. President Donald Trump ruled in 2017 and is the current leader.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has decisively flipped bullish and even announced that Maelstrom Fund is “backing up the truck.” The exec’s comments came as Bitcoin (BTC) broke through its all-time high above $118K on strong volume. He also revealed that Ethereum (ETH) began to follow with potential outperformance, and markets began pricing in a Trump administration’s readiness to ease trade tensions. From Bearish to Bullish This pivot follows Hayes’ prior cautious stance, which was rooted in concerns about a Treasury General Account (TGA) refill draining liquidity. In his previous essay, Hayes explained that the US Treasury Secretary, whom he calls “The Big Bessent Cock (BBC),” faces an impossible task: funding ballooning deficits without causing a bond market revolt. To manage this, the government is turning to innovative liquidity engineering, including stablecoin adoption by “too big to fail” (TBTF) banks, which could unlock up to $6.8 trillion in T-bill buying power. Hayes also noted that if the Fed stops paying interest on reserves, it could unleash another $3.3 trillion, bringing the total potential liquidity injection to $10.1 trillion. He argued this approach was the modern replacement for QE, by maintaining equity markets and crypto afloat despite the Fed’s tightening posture. The exec warned that the TGA refill could briefly interrupt crypto’s bull momentum. Despite this, Bitcoin’s resilience in busting through resistance while Ethereum appears to be positioning for a “monster alt season.” “Frontloading Ahead of Trump Tariffs” Adding to this backdrop, QCP Capital, in its latest analysis, also identified frontloading ahead of potential Trump tariffs as a key macro driver. Manufacturers are accelerating imports and production to preempt implementation, which has led to increased trade and manufacturing credit and improved liquidity conditions. The firm views the current environment as supportive for continued crypto upside, with steady ETF inflows and strong structural demand boosting momentum. The post Bitcoin Breaks ATH, Hayes Flips Bullish: ‘Maelstrom Is Backing Up the Truck’ appeared first on CryptoPotato .
James Wynn, a prominent crypto whale, was liquidated following a sharp Bitcoin price surge, underscoring the risks of high-leverage trading in volatile markets. Wynn’s 40X leveraged short position on Bitcoin
Summary BITU is a 2x leveraged Bitcoin ETF best suited for active traders aiming to time short-term market moves, not long-term investors. Despite Bitcoin hitting new all-time highs, BITU underperformed YTD due to volatility and the inherent risks of leveraged ETFs, including value decay. I remain very bullish on Bitcoin long term but would avoid entering BITU at current levels, preferring to hold Bitcoin directly instead. My hold rating on BITU reflects its high risk, underperformance in volatile markets, and suitability only for tactical, short-term trades. I last covered the Proshares Ultra Bitcoin ETF ( BITU ) in December 2024 , arguing how this is an ETF only suitable for active traders. Today, I am revisiting this ETF and asking myself a different question: with Bitcoin USD ( BTC-USD ) hitting new all-time highs, would it make sense for a risk-prone investor to enter a trade in BITU to maximize future gains? BITU: Performance Since My Last Coverage In December, at the time of my last BITU coverage, Bitcoin was worth ~$101,000 per coin. At the time of writing, after some volatility and correcting down to the mid-80Ks, Bitcoin hit a new ATH of ~$119,000 per coin. So, how did BITU perform? In line with what I described in my last coverage, BITU underperformed its underlying crypto asset YTD by almost 20%, as the table below shows. BITU vs. IBIT; YTD (Seeking Alpha) This underperformance happened by design. BITU, like all leveraged ETFs, faces challenges during volatile periods. Its high leverage magnifies both profits and losses, making recovery from steep declines difficult. When the underlying index falls sharply, the daily rebalancing needed to sustain 2x leverage gradually reduces the ETF's value, leading to underperformance compared to the unleveraged index, even if the market later reaches new all-time highs. This is exactly what happened YTD, with Bitcoin suffering a steep decline in price around the end of April and BITU not managing to recover yet , even as Bitcoin hit new ATHs. BITU: ETF Profile and Evolution The BITU ETF is a leveraged fund that “seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to two times (2x) the daily performance of the Bloomberg Bitcoin Index.” Rather than directly owning Bitcoin, BITU employs financial tools like swaps to track and double Bitcoin’s daily price changes. This approach shields BITU from custodian risks faced by standard Bitcoin ETFs. However, it carries counterparty risk, as the fund depends on instruments issued by financial entities, such as investment banks, which are among the swap providers for the fund. Like every leveraged fund, BITU charges a hefty 0.95% expense ratio (which I find reasonable given the nature of the fund and cost of leverage). BITU also has good liquidity metrics, with a Bid/Ask spread currently at 0.04%, significantly less than the 0.06% that it registered in December at the time of my last coverage. I see this as a positive development in the context of the objective of the fund. It means, in my opinion, that active traders are using BITU consistently , improving its liquidity. BITU’s AUMs are just slightly above what they were in December. They increased by $50 million, equivalent to ~4% of the $1.26 Bln AUM figure. Timing the Bitcoin Market With BITU: Not for Everyone I think the only sensible way to use leveraged ETFs is by holding them short-term when trying to time the market. This is a concept I described in my previous work on Seeking Alpha, including in my recent coverage of a semiconductor leveraged fund that may be a good play in case of a new AI Wave . BITU is no exception. Traders who believe we are on the cusp of a sustained Bitcoin bull run in the upcoming months may want to consider entering at this point in time to maximize their gains. Personally, I am a long-time Bitcoin bull. Having recently covered my thoughts on Bitcoin developing as a global reserve asset based on on-chain data , my bull case remains that of Bitcoin maturing into an asset that rivals gold in market capitalization. I have a target of roughly $750,000 per Bitcoin. However, I also refrain from short-term Bitcoin predictions, and I do not actively trade it. I do believe that we may see further volatility ahead before Bitcoin actually matures into a reserve asset. In fact, I believe it may take longer than many expect to get there, as institutions will take time to actually adopt a prominent “holding behavior”. This is again something readers can see in my previous Bitcoin work , and that I won’t cover in more detail in this article. In a scenario where I was forced to only be exposed to Bitcoin with leveraged products, today I would wait. While I am not using Technical Analysis to predict short-term Bitcoin movements, I do like the “Fear and Greed Index ” as a gauge of short-term price movement. This is an index that measures investor sentiment, using factors like volatility and trading volume on a 0–100 scale. Low scores (0–25) reflect fear, indicating caution, while high scores (75–100) show greed, pointing at overconfidence. Fear & Greed Index, BTC (Coin Market Cap) The Index is currently signalling the beginning of a new “Greed” phase , with the previous “Fear” phase in March, which corresponded to the bottom of Bitcoin in the mid $80Ks. Based on this index, I do expect the bull run to continue for the immediate future (we are still only at the beginning of a greed phase). But I would still not take the risk of entering BITU now. In conclusion, I would tread carefully and only enter a trade in BITU now if I were an active trader convinced we were going to see new ATHs in the upcoming weeks and months. Risks of Leveraged ETFs The main risk of BITU, as a 2X leveraged fund, is that of underperformance of its underlying asset (Bitcoin) in case of volatility. In my past article on BITU, I explained this risk with an example, which I report here below: – Assume a 2x leveraged ETF based on an asset worth $100. – A -5% move in the underlying asset results in a -10% move for the ETF, reducing its value to $90. – To recover to $100, the ETF needs to gain more than 10% because it’s now starting from a lower base. – If the underlying asset recovers to $100 with a +5.26% move, the leveraged ETF will only gain +10.52%, bringing it to $99.47, not $100. This illustrates the fundamental issue with a fund like BITU. Other risks include its hefty expense ratio (should investors hold it for longer periods of time) and generally the higher volatility of the fund. Conclusion When investing, as the old adage goes, one should try to “ Buy Low, Sell High ”. Of course, this is easier said than done, which is why for most investors (me included) a long-term hold approach is preferable. Personally, I would not enter a 2X leveraged position in Bitcoin via BITU as the cryptocurrency reaches new ATHs. I would rather simply hold Bitcoin long term (which is exactly what I am doing). If I really were to use a leveraged product like BITU, I would prefer to do so when fear hits the crypto market rather than when we are entering a new greed phase. However, some people may disagree, and based on their own assessment (including Technical Analysis or other data points), they may believe we are on the verge of repeatedly seeing new ATHs. For these investors, entering BITU today could actually make sense as it maximizes their exposure and potential gains. My final “ hold ” rating for BITU does not reflect bearishness towards Bitcoin (on the contrary, I am very bullish on Bitcoin long term ), but rather the peculiar, leveraged nature of this fund and its objectives.