Matrixport said in its latest report that Bitcoin could reach $125,000 in December. Buy both gold and BTC, he said. Continue Reading: Analysts Answered the Question "Bitcoin or Gold" and Gave a Date for $125,000!
Bitcoin flirted with run toward $100,000, reaching new all-time high
Bitcoin (BTC) is nearing the long-awaited psychological level of $100,000 (or $100k) per coin, bringing mixed feelings among analysts. While … Continue reading The post What happens when Bitcoin hits $100k? Analysts weigh in appeared first on Finbold .
MicroStrategy has completed its offering of 0% convertible senior notes. The company states the net proceeds from the offering will be used to purchase more Bitcoin. On Nov. 22, MicroStrategy’s executive chairman, Michael Saylor, announced that the company has completed…
MicroStrategy has completed its offering of 0% convertible senior notes. The company states the net proceeds from the offering will be used to purchase more Bitcoin. On Nov. 22, MicroStrategy’s executive chairman, Michael Saylor, announced that the company has completed…
BTC peaked at $99,500, but can it go any further?
On November 22, COINOTAG News reported that Interactive Strength, a publicly traded entity on Nasdaq under the ticker symbol TRNR, has obtained board approval to allocate up to $5 million
As Bitcoin reaches unprecedented heights and the market surges, he's highlighting five altcoins poised for explosive growth, with memecoins taking center stage. Read original article on coincu.com
Summary Now in uncharted territory with no technical price resistance, we believe the next phase of the bull market is just beginning. With Trump as the president-elect, regulatory headwinds are turning into tailwinds for the first time. We expect SAB to be repealed within Trump’s first quarter, if not by the SEC, then by Congress, spurring banks to announce crypto custody solutions. Bitcoin surged past all-time highs, buoyed by regulatory tailwinds from Trump's election. With growing interest, indicators suggest a bullish rally could continue. As we anticipated in our September Bitcoin ChainCheck , Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) price has surged upward in a high-volatility, post-election rally. Now in uncharted territory with no technical price resistance, we believe the next phase of the bull market is just beginning. This pattern mirrors what happened four years ago, when Bitcoin’s price doubled between the 2020 election and year-end, followed by an additional ~137% gain in 2021. With a transformative shift in government support for Bitcoin underway, investor interest is rising rapidly; we are receiving inbound calls at an accelerating pace as many investors find themselves under-allocated to the asset class. While we remain vigilant for signs of overheating, we reiterate our cycle price target of $180k / BTC as a number of key indicators we track continue to signal green for this rally. We also hosted an X (formerly Twitter) Spaces conversation with Senator Cynthia Lummis and Michael Saylor, exploring the timing and prospects for a U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and how more corporations are exploring adding Bitcoin to their corporate treasuries. Bitcoin’s Price Action Market sentiment: At $89,444, Bitcoin’s 7-day moving average (7 DMA) is at an all-time high. On election night, Tuesday, Nov 5th, Bitcoin surged ~9% to new all-time highs of ~$75k as Polymarket’s odds indicated Trump was winning the race, effectively front-running traditional news outlets’ election calls. This aligns with our previous observations of Bitcoin’s price surging when Trump’s odds improved on Polymarket, such as after his assassination attempt. Trump made Bitcoin and crypto central to his campaign, promising to end the SEC’s regulation-by-enforcement approach and to “make America the world capital for crypto and Bitcoin.” With Trump as the president-elect, regulatory headwinds are turning into tailwinds for the first time. Trump has already started appointing pro-crypto figures across the executive branch, while the Republican party now holds a unified government, increasing the likelihood of supportive legislation. Such legislation includes proposals like creating a national Bitcoin reserve—the odds of which are trading at 34% on Polymarket as of November 19th—and rewriting crypto market structure and stablecoin draft legislation. Under new leadership, we expect FIT21 will be rewritten in market- and privacy-friendly terms, while new stablecoin drafts will allow state-chartered banks to issue stablecoins without Fed approval. At a time when nations like BRICS are exploring alternatives like Bitcoin to bypass USD sanctions and currency manipulation, stablecoins offer a strategic opportunity to export the U.S. dollar globally. By removing regulatory hurdles and enabling state-chartered banks to issue stablecoins \, the U.S. can defend the dollar’s global influence and capitalize on crypto’s faster adoption in emerging markets, where financial services, hedges against local currency inflation, and DeFi are in high demand. We expect SAB to be repealed within Trump’s first quarter, if not by the SEC, then by Congress, spurring banks to announce crypto custody solutions. If Gary Gensler hasn’t already resigned, we anticipate Trump will follow through on his promise to replace the SEC chairman, favoring more crypto-friendly candidates and ending the agency’s notorious “regulation by enforcement” era. Additionally, we expect that in 2025, U.S. ETH ETFs will be amended to support staking, the SEC will accept the SOL ETF 19b-4, and in-kind creation and redemption will make these ETFs more tax-efficient and liquid. As Trump has previously acknowledged the shared energy-intensive nature of Bitcoin mining and AI, we anticipate energy deregulation—leading to cheaper, more abundant baseload power (e.g., nuclear)—will drive global leadership in energy, AI, and Bitcoin. In our view, this election marks a bullish turning point, reversing years of offshoring jobs and capital caused by previous hawkish leadership. By fostering entrepreneurial dynamism, the U.S. is poised to become a global leader in crypto innovation and employment, transforming crypto into a critical industry for domestic growth and a key export to emerging markets. Bitcoin dominance: The 7-day moving average of Bitcoin dominance, a measure of Bitcoin’s market cap relative to all crypto’s aggregate market cap, rose 2 points to 59% this month, reaching levels not seen since March 2021. While the uptrend from 40% in November 2022 may persist in the near term, we expect it to peak soon. In September, we noted that a Harris victory might favor Bitcoin dominance due to Bitcoin’s clearer regulatory status as a commodity. In contrast, Trump’s pro-crypto stance and growing cabinet will likely spur investment more broadly across the crypto space. With Bitcoin reaching new highs under a pro-innovation regulatory backdrop, wealth effects and regulatory de-risking are poised to attract both crypto-native capital and new institutional investment into DeFi, boosting returns in the long tail of the asset class. Regional trading: At first glance, traders during Asian market hours appeared to significantly increase their Bitcoin holdings this month, defying a years-long trend of being net sellers to European and US traders. However, Bitcoin’s price surge on election night occurred during Asian trading hours, likely driven by an unusually high proportion of US-based investors trading around the election. This exceptional event complicates attributing such price movements solely to regional dynamics. Consistent with historical behavior, traders during US and European hours continued accumulating BTC, sustaining the price performance trends observed in October. Regional Trading MoM Change (%) YoY Change (%) Asia Hours Price Change MoM ($) 7 0 U.S. Hours Price Change MoM ($) 4 4 EU Hours Price Change MoM ($) 5 4 Source: Glassnodeas of 11/18/24. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Key Indicators To evaluate this bull market's potential upside and remaining duration, we examined key indicators that assess risk levels and potential peaks. This month, we begin our analysis with perpetual futures, or "perps," where funding rates offer insight into market sentiment and help gauge the likelihood of an overheated market. Bitcoin Prices Appear Overheated When 30 Displaced Moving Average ((DMA)) Perp Funding Rates Exceed 10% for ~1-3 Months. Average BTC Returns Versus Perp Funding Rates (04.01.20 - 11.11.24) BTC Price Performance When 30 DMA Annualized Perps Fees Exceed 10% Date Ranges Prices Returns Open Close Duration (Days) Open ($) Close ($) Peak ($) Low ($) Open to Peak (%) Open to Close (%) 7/27/2020 9/15/2020 51 11,023 10,797 12,250 10,132 11 -2 11/11/2020 5/21/2021 186 17,667 37,273 63,604 17,097 260 111 8/31/2021 9/22/2021 23 47,238 43,569 52,611 40,634 11 -8 10/19/2021 12/8/2021 51 64,238 50,521 67,589 48,963 5 -21 11/12/2023 1/30/2024 80 37,058 42,912 46,944 35,534 27 16 2/18/2024 4/26/2024 69 52,123 63,787 73,105 50,724 40 22 6/18/2024 6/18/2024 1 65,160 65,160 65,160 65,160 0 0 11/10/2024 TBD n/a 80,425 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Source: Glassnode as of 11/12/2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This month, we start by examining perpetual futures, or 'perps'—futures contracts where traders on the more popular side of the market pay a 'funding rate' to those on the opposite side. As markets skew, funding rates automatically rise to incentivize balance and compensate traders for directional risk. Thus, sustained high funding rates may be used to indicate an overheated market. Starting from April 2020, we analyzed periods when the 30-day moving average perpetual funding rate exceeded 10%. These periods averaged ~66 days with 17% returns from open to close, though individual durations varied significantly. Only one period—the single-day spike on June 18th, 2024—was tactical, reflecting a short-term reaction. All other instances lasted several weeks, highlighting structural bullish sentiment that often drives significant short- to medium-term gains.For example, the high funding rate period starting August 31st, 2021, lasted 23 days, followed by a 28-day cooling-off period before re-igniting for another 51 days on October 19th. Counting this brief gap, the combined duration of elevated funding rates in 2021 totaled 99 days. Similarly, the current high funding rate period, which began on November 12th, 2024, lasted 80 days before a 19-day pause, resuming for another 69 days. Combined, this period spans 168 days, comparable to the 186 days observed from November 11th, 2020, to May 21st, 2021. Notably, Bitcoin purchases made on days when funding rates exceeded 10% yielded higher average returns over 30-day, 60-day, and 90-day time frames compared to purchases on days with lower funding rates. However, the data also highlights a pattern of underperformance on longer time horizons. On average, purchases made on days when funding rates were above 10% began underperforming at the 180-day mark, with this trend becoming even more pronounced over 1-year and 2-year periods. As market cycles typically span about four years, this pattern suggests that sustained high funding rates often correspond with cycle tops and may serve as early indicators of an overheated market vulnerable to longer-term downside. Bitcoin Cycle Analysis Date Ranges Prices Durations (Days) Returns Cycle Open Peak Close Open ($) Peak ($) Close ($) Opento Peak Peakto Close Total Opento Peak (%) Peakto Close (%) Opento Close (%) 1 18-Nov-11 29-Nov-13 14-Jan-15 2 1,134 172 742 411 1153 55308 -85 8396 2 14-Jan-15 16-Dec-17 15-Dec-18 172 19,588 3,237 1067 364 1431 11374 -83 1880 3 15-Dec-18 10-Nov-21 21-Nov-22 3,237 67,589 15,798 1061 376 1437 2088 -77 488 4 21-Nov-22 13-Nov-24 TBD 15,798 89,829 TBD 723 TBD 723 569 TBD TBD Cycle open is defined by the bear market low Cycle close is defined as the next low Source: Glassnode as of 11/13/2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. As of November 11th, Bitcoin has entered a new phase where funding rates again exceed 10%. This shift points toward stronger short- to medium-term momentum, as historically, elevated funding rates have been linked to higher 30-, 60-, and 90-day returns, reflecting heightened bullish sentiment and demand. However, as funding rates remain elevated, we may move out of the phase where longer-term (1-2 year) returns are as favorable. Given the current pro-Bitcoin regulatory environment, we anticipate another period of high performance, reminiscent of the post-2020 election phase when sustained 10%+ funding rates drove a 260% gain over 186 days. With Bitcoin currently trading near $90k, our $180k price target remains plausible, reflecting a potential cycle return of ~1,000% from the cycle’s trough to peak. Elevated 30 Displaced Moving Average ((DMA)) Relative Unrealized Profit Levels (>0.60 and 0.70) Historically Signal BTC Price Peaks 0.60 and 0.70) Historically Signal BTC Price Peaks" contenteditable="false"> Average BTC Returns Versus 30d Moving Average Relative Unrealized Profits (RUP) (11.13.16 - 11.13.24) Source: Glassnode as of 11/13/2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Average BTC Returns Versus 30d Moving Average Relative Unrealized Profits (RUP) (11.13.16 - 11.13.24) RUP ) (11.13.16 - 11.13.24)"> Source: Glassnode as of 11/13/2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Next, we look towards Relative Unrealized Profit (RUP), another metric useful for highlighting overheated Bitcoin markets. Relative Unrealized Profit (RUP) measures the proportion of Bitcoin’s market cap represented by unrealized gains—profits that exist on paper but have not yet been realized through selling. This metric rises when Bitcoin’s price exceeds the last acquisition price for most holders, reflecting optimism as a larger proportion of the market moves into profit. Historically, elevated 30-day moving average ((DMA)) RUP levels - especially above 0.60 and 0.70 - signal strong market sentiment and potential overheating. As illustrated by the red bands in the chart, RUP 30 DMAs above 0.70 often align with market tops, as the high proportion of unrealized profits triggers profit-taking. Conversely, RUP levels below 0.60 indicate more favorable conditions for long-term buying, with historical data showing higher 1- and 2-year returns for purchases below this threshold. Our analysis of the past two market cycles suggests that 30 DMA RUP levels between 0.60 and 0.70 tend to deliver the highest short- to medium-term returns (7-day to 180-day). This range ordinarily reflects the middle stages of a bull market, where optimism is rising but not yet excessive. In contrast, RUP >0.70 in aggregate consistently correlates with negative returns across all time frames, reinforcing it as a strong sell signal. As of November 13th, Bitcoin’s 30 DMA RUP is ~0.54, with daily values exceeding 0.60 since November 11th. According to our detailed table, risks progressively increase as RUP approaches 0.70, emphasizing the urgency of acting within the 0.60–0.70 range for short-term trades. However, if RUP’s 30 DMA rises closer to 0.70, it could signal an overheated market, advising caution for long-term positioning. Google Search Term Popularity for Crypto in the U.S. RUP ) (11.13.16 - 11.13.24)"> Source: Google Trends as of 11/18/2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The popularity of "crypto" as a Google search term serves as a strong gauge of retail investor interest and market momentum. Historically, peaks in search interest have closely aligned with crypto market cap peaks. For example, all-time highs in search interest in May and November 2021 preceded significant market drawdowns: a two-month ~55% correction after the May peak and a ~12-month, ~75% bear market following the November peak. Currently, search term popularity sits at just 34% of its May 2021 peak and slightly below the 37% local peak observed in March 2024, when Bitcoin reached its highest price of this cycle. This relatively low level of search interest suggests that Bitcoin and the broader crypto markets have not yet entered speculative mania, leaving room for further growth before reaching the levels of mainstream attention typically associated with market tops. Coinbase App Store Rankings Source: Homepage | OpenBB as of 11/15/2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Like Google ( GOOGL ) searches for “crypto,” Coinbase’s ( COIN ) App Store ranking is a strong indicator of retail interest in the space. After a lengthy bear market, Coinbase re-entered the top 50 apps on March 5th of this year, following a ~34% surge in Bitcoin price over nine days as Bitcoin retested its 2021 all-time high of ~$69k. Despite Bitcoin reaching new highs of ~$74k later that month, retail interest waned as price volatility declined into the summer doldrums and attention shifted to the presidential race. However, Bitcoin’s election-night breakout reignited retail interest, with Coinbase’s App Store rank jumping from #412 to #9 between November 5th and 14th. This surge in engagement helped drive prices higher, alongside record Bitcoin ETF inflows (see Chart of The Month). Bitcoin’s Network Activity, Adoption, and Fees Daily transactions: The 7-day moving average of daily transactions is ~543k, a -15% month-over-month decline. Despite the decline, activity remains strong at the 96th percentile of Bitcoin’s all-time history. Fewer transactions are being offset by larger payloads, as evidenced by rising transfer volumes. Ordinals inscriptions: Daily inscriptions (NFTs and meme coins on the Bitcoin blockchain) transactions increased 404% month-over-month, reflecting revitalized speculative enthusiasm likely stemming from price increases and regulatory tailwinds. Total transfer volume: Bitcoin transfer volume increased 118% month-over-month to a 7-day moving average of ~$85 billion. Average transaction fees: Bitcoin transaction fees fell 5% month-over-month to an average cost of $3.58, representing an average transaction fee of 0.0023% compared to the average transaction payload of ~$157k. Bitcoin Market Health and Profitability Percent of addresses in profit: With Bitcoin price trading at all-time highs, ~99% of all Bitcoin addresses are currently profitable. Net unrealized profit/loss: This ratio increased 21% percent to 0.61 over the past month, indicating a significant increase in the ratio between Relative Unrealized Profit and Relative Unrealized Loss. As an indicator of market sentiment, this ratio sits in the “Belief – Denial” range, corresponding to market cycle phases of accelerated expansion and contraction between cycle peaks and troughs. Bitcoin ChainCheck Monthly Dashboard As of November 18th, 2024 7-day avg 30 day change 1 (%) 365 day change (%) Last 7 days Percentilevs all-time history (%) Bitcoin Price $89,444 35 144 100 Daily Active Addresses 865,648 25 -10 76 Daily New Addresses 366,521 33 -31 69 Daily Transactions 543,293 -15 -5 96 Daily Inscriptions 51,883 -404 -83 47 Total Transfer Volume ((USD)) $ 85,273,299,135 118 209 92 % Supply Active, last 180 days 18% 7 9 5 % Supply Dormant for 3+ Years 46 % 1 13 100 Avg Fees ((USD)) $3.58 -5 -70 85 Avg Fees ((BTC)) 0.00004 -30 -88 13 Percent of BTC Addresses in profit 99% 6 21 99 Unrealized profit/loss ratio 0.61 21 39 85 Global Power Consumption (TWh) 140 10 58 100 Total Daily BTC Miner Revenues ((USD)) $41,737,495 30 4 92 Total Crypto Equities' Market Cap * ((USD)) (MM) $208,001 47 102 100 Transfer volume from Miners to Exchanges ((USD)) $29,052,882 803 -31 100 Bitcoin Dominance 59% 4 16 88 Bitcoin Futures Annualized Basis 13% 54 35 82 Mining Difficulty ((T)) 102 10 57 100 * DAPP market cap as a proxy, as of Oct 18th, 2024 1 30 day change & 365 day change are relative to the 7-day avg, not absolute Source : Glassnode, VanEck research as of 10/15/24. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Bitcoin Miners & Total Crypto Equities’ Market Cap Mining Difficulty (T): Bitcoin's block difficulty rose from 92 terahashes ((T)) to 102 T, reflecting miners expanding and upgrading their fleets. The Bitcoin network automatically adjusts difficulty every 2,016 blocks (~two weeks) to ensure blocks are mined approximately every 10 minutes, increasing or decreasing the computational power needed to solve a block. Rising difficulty signals growing competition among miners and a robust, secure network. Total Daily BTC Miner Revenues: Increased 30% month-over-month, benefiting from Bitcoin’s rally but suffering from a 30% decline in BTC-denominated transaction fees. Transfer Volume from Miners to Exchanges: On Friday, November 18th, miners transferred ~$181 million in BTC to exchanges—50x the preceding 30 days’ average—driving the 7-day moving average up 803% month-over-month. This extreme move reflects the highest level since March, prior to Bitcoin’s latest halving. While persistently high levels of miner transfers to exchanges can signal an overheated market, this spike follows a summer of relatively low miner selling, suggesting profit-taking for operations and growth rather than a market peak. Total Crypto Equities’ Market Cap: The 30-day moving average of the MarketVector Digital Asset Equity Index (MVDAPP) rose 47% month-over-month, outperforming Bitcoin. Leading index components such as MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Bitcoin miners directly benefit from Bitcoin’s price appreciation through their holdings or mining operations. Meanwhile, companies like Coinbase capitalize on broader crypto market gains as rising prices drive expectations of increased trading fees and other revenue streams. Chart of the Month Source: farside.co.uk as of 11/18/2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Disclosures Coin Definitions Bitcoin ((BTC)) is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator. It can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer Bitcoin network without intermediaries. Risk Considerations This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities, financial instruments or digital assets mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, tax advice, or any call to action. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results, are for illustrative purposes only, are valid as of the date of this communication, and are subject to change without notice. Actual future performance of any assets or industries mentioned are unknown. Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. VanEck does not guarantee the accuracy of third party data. The information herein represents the opinion of the author(s), but not necessarily those of VanEck or its other employees. The information, valuation scenarios and price targets presented on any digital assets in this blog are not intended as financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell these digital assets, or any call to action. There may be risks or other factors not accounted for in these scenarios that may impede the performance these digital assets; their actual future performance is unknown, and may differ significantly from any valuation scenarios or projections/forecasts herein. Any projections, forecasts or forward-looking statements included herein are the results of a simulation based on our research, are valid as of the date of this communication and subject to change without notice, and are for illustrative purposes only. Please conduct your own research and draw your own conclusions. Index performance is not representative of fund performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Investments in digital assets and Web3 companies are highly speculative and involve a high degree of risk. These risks include, but are not limited to: the technology is new and many of its uses may be untested; intense competition; slow adoption rates and the potential for product obsolescence; volatility and limited liquidity, including but not limited to, inability to liquidate a position; loss or destruction of key(s) to access accounts or the blockchain; reliance on digital wallets; reliance on unregulated markets and exchanges; reliance on the internet; cybersecurity risks; and the lack of regulation and the potential for new laws and regulation that may be difficult to predict. Moreover, the extent to which Web3 companies or digital assets utilize blockchain technology may vary, and it is possible that even widespread adoption of blockchain technology may not result in a material increase in the value of such companies or digital assets. Digital asset prices are highly volatile, and the value of digital assets, and Web3 companies, can rise or fall dramatically and quickly. If their value goes down, there’s no guarantee that it will rise again. As a result, there is a significant risk of loss of your entire principal investment. Digital assets are not generally backed or supported by any government or central bank and are not covered by FDIC or SIPC insurance. Accounts at digital asset custodians and exchanges are not protected by SPIC and are not FDIC insured. Furthermore, markets and exchanges for digital assets are not regulated with the same controls or customer protections available in traditional equity, option, futures, or foreign exchange investing. Digital assets include, but are not limited to, cryptocurrencies, tokens, NFTs, assets stored or created using blockchain technology, and other Web3 products. Web3 companies include but are not limited to, companies that involve the development, innovation, and/or utilization of blockchain, digital assets, or crypto technologies. All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. As with any investment strategy, there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be met and investors may lose money. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. © Van Eck Associates Corporation Original Post Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
Bitcoin's recent performance indicates a potential parabolic phase. Ethereum shows bullish signals, potentially reaching new price levels. Continue Reading: Analysts Predict Bitcoin’s Parabolic Phase Will Last 300 Days The post Analysts Predict Bitcoin’s Parabolic Phase Will Last 300 Days appeared first on COINTURK NEWS .