Pension funds' interest could significantly boost Bitcoin's value, notes Bill Miller IV. Bill suggests 2% investment from funds might push Bitcoin to $175,000. Continue Reading: Bill Miller IV Highlights a Potential Bitcoin Surge Due to Pension Funds The post Bill Miller IV Highlights a Potential Bitcoin Surge Due to Pension Funds appeared first on COINTURK NEWS .
Crypto market pullback: Bitcoin and Ethereum led a roughly $200 billion decline this week as capital rotated into blue chips and out of smaller tokens, cooling altseason momentum. BTC’s market-cap
In a thread on August 19, analyst Miles Deutscher argued that MicroStrategy’s market-implied net asset value (mNAV) premium—the core gear in Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin acquisition flywheel—has compressed sharply, weakening the feedback loop that helped the company outpace Bitcoin through most of the cycle. “Michael Saylor built the craziest BTC flywheel in history. But his buying power is starting to fade. The market is now asking one question: ‘Is the BTC treasury bubble finally popping?’” MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Premium Is Fading Deutscher grounds the discussion in how investors currently value MicroStrategy. “People often overlook that MicroStrategy has a legacy software business, which continues to generate revenue. However, MicroStrategy has essentially become a company whose valuation is primarily influenced by its BTC holdings. The entire system is powered by mNAV (Market-Implied NAV).” In practical terms, the mNAV multiple is the premium investors pay over the company’s look-through Bitcoin value to access leveraged BTC exposure via MSTR. “An mNAV of ~1.58x means the market is paying a 58% premium for their BTC.” According to Deutscher, that premium “was once a 3.4x mNAV” when Bitcoin was surging, but it has “now decreased to 1.58x. Demand is slowing down.” In other words, what had been a powerful flywheel—high premium enabling cheap equity issuance that funded more Bitcoin purchases, which in turn kept NAV rising and the premium elevated—now spins with much less torque. Related Reading: Crypto Founder Predicts The Collapse Of Bitcoin In This Timeframe That shift intersected with a contentious corporate action. “Recently, Saylor sparked controversy by revealing that Strategy had revised its MSTR Equity ATM Guidance to offer greater ‘flexibility’ in executing its capital markets strategy.” The implication, Deutscher argues, is that greater issuance flexibility “may dilute shareholder value and increase financial risk tied to Bitcoin’s volatility.” He notes that “the market is quite divided” on the change. On the constructive side, he quotes @thedefivillain’s take—“Slower concentration of supply in Saylor’s hands,” “Greater leverage to justify mNAV,” and “Reduced buying pressure for BTC in dollar terms”—as reasons the revision could ultimately be benign. But critics worry about “the possibility of a ‘death spiral.’ The removal of the 2.5x mNAV safeguard for equity issuance may allow MicroStrategy to sell shares at lower valuations.” Reflexivity, in Deutscher’s telling, is the operative risk factor: “Reflexivity is a brutal force that operates in both directions.” A Hypothetical Scenario Deutscher then sets up a stress-test to illustrate how that reflexivity could bite if Bitcoin weakens and the premium compresses to parity. “If BTC’s price drops 20% and MicroStrategy’s mNAV multiple falls to 1.0x, the stock might plummet by 46.5%.” He walks through the arithmetic from a notional baseline of $115,000 per BTC, which on a 20% decline would fall to $92,000. On MicroStrategy’s “226,331 BTC,” he calculates that would put look-through NAV at $20.82 billion. To align an mNAV of exactly 1.0x, he backs into enterprise value and market cap under that scenario: “Starting with an enterprise value of $20.82 billion, we subtract MicroStrategy’s $2.2 billion in debt and add its $0.1 billion in cash. This calculation unveils the company’s market cap, hitting $18.72 billion, a significant pullback from its original $35 billion market cap.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Run Hinges On Trump’s Pick For Fed Chair: Analyst The conclusion he draws from the modeled path—BTC −20% to ~$92,000, mNAV → 1.0x, MSTR market cap −46.5%—is that MicroStrategy’s equity remains a leveraged instrument with an outcome path that can be materially worse than Bitcoin itself when the premium compresses. Beyond the scenario math, Deutscher links recent spot price action to changing marginal demand. “I think BTC’s recent weakness can be attributed to the market starting to price in reduced Saylor demand/tail potential risk of the revised ATM guidance.” In parallel, he highlights how the proliferation of spot ETFs erodes the original rationale for paying a large listed-company premium to own BTC “beta”: “Spot Bitcoin ETFs are plentiful now. Why would you pay a 58% premium for MSTR’s leveraged exposure when you can grab IBIT at a clean ~1.0x NAV?” By his framing, the mNAV premium itself “was indicative of the market’s view that MSTR was going to outperform BTC.” With that view fading, the premium looks less like an enduring structural feature and more like a belief-sensitive variable. “In my opinion, the MSTR premium is essentially a gamble. You’re betting on three fragile things: unwavering market confidence, open capital markets, and Saylor’s leadership. If any of those pillars start to wobble, the premium collapses.” At press time, BTC traded at $113,624. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Buenos Aires has switched on “BA Cripto,” a policy package that lets residents and businesses settle city taxes and administrative fees using cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin. Rolled out on Tuesday, August 19, 2025, the program covers municipal levies such as ABL (property tax), Patentes (vehicle tax), and Ingresos Brutos (turnover tax), as well as non-tax procedures like driver’s licenses and traffic fines, payable via a city QR flow. Buenos Aires Goes Crypto City Hall’s move is broader than a payments toggle. Officials unveiled four measures: adding crypto-linked activities to the city’s economic-activity nomenclator to simplify filings; excluding virtual-asset service providers (PSAVs) from certain bank-collection regimes under the turnover tax; shifting the taxable base for crypto trading from gross transaction value to the net spread; and enabling QR crypto payments for both taxes and administrative services. The government framed the package as a regulatory tune-up that reduces frictions while aligning taxation with how digital-asset markets actually operate. Mayor Jorge Macri presented the initiative as an institutional modernization designed to attract investment and make compliance easier. “The goal is for the City to be a world leader in crypto,” he said, adding: “We already have the human capital, and now we are building the tools by reducing bureaucracy to make taxpayer compliance easier and to support the arrival of new companies setting up here.” The remarks were delivered at The Slow Kale in Colegiales, a venue that accepts crypto payments. Macri also argued the package signals a friendlier posture toward the sector: “These measures ensure the crypto world sees that the City is increasingly friendly. The digital economy compels us to update and adapt with a modern, agile, efficient and intelligent State. We want talent to find a place to grow, innovate and lead without obstacles.” The backdrop is growing usage. According to city data cited at launch, roughly 10,000 people in Buenos Aires receive income from abroad via crypto or PayPal , and the use of PIX rails has been rising. Nationwide, Argentina counts “more than 10 million” crypto accounts—about 22% of Latin America’s total—figures the city says justify tailored rules and public-service rails that natively accommodate digital assets. For firms, the classification update matters because it gives crypto activities an explicit slot in the tax nomenclator, improving clarity “without fiscal cost” and easing cross-jurisdiction information matching. Excluding PSAVs from bank-collection regimes is intended to curb automatic withholdings that can tie up working capital, while the new spread-based tax base acknowledges the mismatch between high-volume, low-margin trading and a gross-receipts framework. Together, these steps amount to what the city calls a more “agile” and “transparent” environment for digital-asset businesses to operate in the capital. On the consumer side, the payment experience is meant to be straightforward: scan a city QR and pay the selected tax or fee with a compatible wallet. Officials said only some wallets currently support crypto payments, but a Buenos Aires–provided “aggregator” is in the works to let “neighbors and companies” pay “from any wallet, directly, faster, and simpler.” The government did not publish a technical spec or list of supported assets at launch. Hernán Lombardi, the city’s Economic Development Minister, cast the reforms as a recalibration of legal and tax treatment for digital assets. “These reforms mark a change in the legal and tax treatment of digital assets. Less bureaucracy, greater legal certainty, and clear rules will translate into more investment,” he said, noting the updated nomenclator will help “determine and clarify the activities of companies and individual crypto-asset users, and thus avoid withholdings that compromise the sector’s working capital.” At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $3.77 trillion.
Billions exit crypto despite ‘altseason’ hype. Is the hype itself driving the pullback?
Bybit Proof of Reserves confirms user assets are fully backed: the 25th snapshot (Aug 14, 2025) shows BTC holdings increased 5.61% to 58,954 BTC while ETH and SHIB balances also
Bitcoin’s explosive ascent defies past predictions as U.S. regulators pivot toward institutional adoption—forcing even a top Harvard economist to completely reassess his early outlook. Harvard Professor Admits Bitcoin Miscalculation—Key Drivers Still Loading Cryptocurrency’s durability continues to challenge critics, including leading economists who once doubted its staying power. Kenneth Rogoff, Maurits C. Boas Professor at Harvard
Summary This weekly update tracks some of the largest cryptocurrencies by market share: bitcoin and ether. Bitcoin's closing price reached a new record high of $123,000 last week. It has since pulled back, falling nearly 9% from that peak. After approaching a new record high last week, Ether's closing price experienced a significant retreat, dropping over 14% from that peak. By Jennifer Nash This weekly update tracks some of the largest cryptocurrencies by market share: bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) and ether ( ETH-USD ). While both are considered to be high-risk when it comes to investing, the two have foundational differences that investors should know . We've also included XRP ( XRP-USD ), as it was one of the largest cryptocurrencies when this series began. According to Wikipedia , a cryptocurrency is "a digital asset designed to work as a medium of exchange that uses cryptography to secure its transactions, to control the creation of additional units, and to verify the transfer of assets." Bitcoin Bitcoin was the world's first cryptocurrency and decentralized digital currency. The first bitcoin transaction occurred in early 2009 and has since grown worldwide to a mainstream financial asset. It is often considered volatile, as seen in our first chart, but one can argue that it is also resilient . Bitcoin's closing price reached a new record high of $123,000 last week. It has since pulled back, falling nearly 9% from that peak. BTC is now up ~20% year to date. Ether Ether is a cryptocurrency run on the Ethereum blockchain platform and was launched in July 2015. It has the second largest market share, despite being the newest of the three discussed in this article. After approaching a new record high last week, Ether's closing price experienced a significant retreat, dropping over 14% from that peak. ETH is now ~21% year to date and is ~15% below its record high from November 2021 XRP XRP, which is owned by Ripple, was launched in 2012 and was one of the larger cryptocurrencies for some time until new coins joined the market. Bitcoin vs. Ether vs. XRP An index has been created in order to chart these three cryptocurrencies together, considering their significantly different pricing histories. A logarithmic scale is used on the y-axis of this chart to better illustrate the relative percentage changes and long-term growth of these cryptocurrencies, as opposed to their absolute price fluctuations. The chart tells us which cryptocurrency's price has changed the most since November 9, 2017. At one point or another, all three have been at the top. At the time of writing, bitcoin is in the lead. On January 10th, 2024, the SEC approved spot bitcoin ETFs from a range of issuers such as Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF ( GBTC ), iShares Bitcoin Trust ( IBIT ), Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund ( FBTC ), ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF ( ARKB ), Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB), Coinshares Valkyrie Bitcoin Fund ( BRRR ). Here are some of the quick takeaways from the spot bitcoin ETF launch. On July 23rd, 2024, a handful of spot ether ETFs launched from a range of issuers such as Grayscale Ethereum Trust ( ETHE ), Franklin Ethereum ETF ( EZET ), Bitwise Ethereum ETF ( ETHW ), iShares Ethereum Trust ( ETHA ), and Fidelity Ethereum ETF ( FETH ). Original Post Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
Good Morning, Asia. Here's what's making news in the markets: Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk's Crypto Daybook Americas. Bitcoin steadied in Asia Thursday at $114,610 (+1.4%), clawing back some ground after last week’s slide, while ether outpaced with a 5.8% jump to $4,370.73 as investors rotated selectively across the market. The CoinDesk 20 , a measure of the performance of the largest crypto assets, is up 3.5%, trading above 4,078. OKX Singapore CEO Gracie Lin said in a note to CoinDesk that the rising ETH/BTC ratio shows capital shifting into ether’s relative strength while Bitcoin consolidates. "Crypto capital is getting more selective," Lin told CoinDesk. She stressed that this is not a broad “altseason,” but a targeted move into ETH as macro catalysts like the Jackson Hole conference and U.S. inflation data loom. Fresh figures from CryptoQuant underline why Bitcoin’s rally has cooled. Apparent demand has dropped from 174,000 BTC in July to 59,000 BTC today, while ETF inflows have slowed to their weakest since April," the firm wrote in a recent report. Profit-taking remains heavy, with whales realizing $2 billion in gains on Aug. 16 alone, bringing total realized profits since July to $74 billion. CryptoQuant analysts now classify the market as in a “bullish cooldown” phase, with $110,000 flagged as an important support level. In a note to CoinDesk, analysts at Enflux, a Singapore-based market maker noted that retail enthusiasm for altseason has dropped sharply compared to last week, even as strategic bets like BNB hitting all-time highs and Hyperliquid’s operational strength continue to draw capital. “This indicates that the altcoin market is no longer a uniform beta trade, as macro conviction is forming, but more selective and concentrated, also on the institutional side,” the firm said. The result is a market less defined by broad rallies and more by selective winners, with ETH setting the tone as capital stays in crypto but moves with sharper focus, favoring resilience over speculation. Market Movers BTC: Bitcoin edged up 1.4% to just above $114,000 while U.S. stocks slipped, and altcoins showed unusual resilience as BTC dominance nears a six-month low. ETH: Ether outperformed bitcoin, climbing 5.8% as traders rotated into majors despite slowing BTC demand. Gold: UBS raised its gold price target to $3,600 per ounce in Q1 2026, citing the strongest bullion demand since 2011 driven by U.S. macro risks, de-dollarization, and heavy ETF and central bank buying. S&P 500: The Nasdaq fell 0.68% and the S&P 500 slipped 0.26% Wednesday as investors rotated out of tech stocks into sectors like energy, healthcare, and consumer staples ahead of the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium. Elsewhere in Crypto Winklevoss Twins Heave $21M Toward Republicans in Next Year's Congressional Battles ( CoinDesk ) Crypto firms urge UK to form national stablecoin strategy to avoid falling behind U.S. ( CNBC ) BitMEX Founder, Pardoned by Trump, Joins Longevity-Hacking Craze ( Bloomberg )
Bitcoin is trading at a critical support level after reaching a new all-time high of $124,500 before swiftly losing the $115K level in less than a week. The sudden reversal underscores the sharp rise in volatility, with bulls and bears locked in a battle for momentum. While some analysts argue that BTC could reclaim its highs in the coming days, others expect the market to cool off further, with consolidation potentially dragging the price into lower ranges. Key insights from CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn reveal that Bitcoin just faced one of the heaviest loss-driven moves in weeks. Short-term holders (STHs) have been under pressure, with billions in BTC flowing into exchanges at a loss, signaling capitulation among speculative investors. Historically, such moments of intense selling either trigger deeper corrections or set the stage for recovery rallies, depending on how quickly markets absorb the supply. For now, Bitcoin’s ability to stabilize above the $115K–$113K support zone will likely determine the short-term trajectory. If buyers step in aggressively, a rebound toward $120K+ could materialize. However, failure to defend current levels may leave BTC vulnerable to a deeper retracement before any attempt to retest its all-time highs. Short-Term Holders Capitulate as Bitcoin Faces Pressure According to CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn, Bitcoin’s short-term holders (STHs) are showing signs of serious capitulation . Over just two days, a staggering 50,026 BTC — worth approximately $5.69 billion — flowed from STHs to exchanges at a loss. This marks the deepest loss-driven move in more than a month, underscoring how quickly sentiment can shift in an overheated market. STHs selling at a loss is a critical signal. Historically, these moments often align with market stress points where speculative investors exit positions under pressure. Bulls, however, are looking for a different outcome. They want this to represent a sharp flush-out of weak hands, followed by renewed accumulation and a swift price rebound. In this view, the sell-off would simply be a reset — a profit-taking event that clears the path for more sustainable gains. If that fails to materialize, the risk grows that this episode could mirror the prolonged loss realization seen from late February through late May, when persistent capitulation dragged Bitcoin through an extended consolidation phase. For now, bulls are defending the $115K region, but many analysts point to $110K as a decisive level. Losing that support could expose BTC to a deeper retracement, while holding it could provide the springboard for a renewed push back toward all-time highs. BTC Price Analysis: Testing Key Moving Average The 8-hour Bitcoin chart shows that BTC is under strong selling pressure after failing to hold above the $120K–$123K resistance area. The chart highlights multiple rejections at the $123,217 level, establishing it as a critical ceiling. After the most recent failed breakout attempt, price has sharply retraced, now trading around $113,486. On the downside, BTC is testing the 200-period moving average (red line), currently sitting near $113,292. This zone has acted as a key support level in previous consolidations. If the price manages to defend this area, it could form a base for a potential rebound toward the mid-range levels around $117K–$118K. However, failure to hold this moving average would likely open the door for a deeper correction toward the $110K psychological level. The 50-period (blue) and 100-period (green) moving averages are now above the price, acting as resistance, signaling a short-term bearish bias. Market structure suggests consolidation is underway, with momentum shifting toward bears. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView